Thursday, December 15, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: SAG ~ Nominations



Ensemble
Captain Fantastic
Fences
Hidden Figures
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight


La La Land missing here makes sense even if I predicted that they'd still nominate it.  It is a two-person show with little mention ever of the supporting cast, so the fact that they stuck with ensemble heavy films makes sense.  Captain Fantastic kind of came out of nowhere though.  I had heard rumbling that it could play well, but I didn't believe it.  I guess I was wrong.

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis for Fences
Naomi Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea

So, it is now looking like this is our lineup.  I didn't believe the Spencer nom but she hit here and the Globes so it looks like consensus has settled on her within the ensemble, and she's a previous Oscar winner who many think was snubbed back in 2013, so this makes sense.  What an F-You to #OscarsSoWhite, too, if we get three actresses of color in one category.

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges for Manchester By the Sea
Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel for Lion

Ali and Bridges are locked in for the Oscars, but this category still feels ripe for a surprise, especially since Silence is a late contender with multiple options going for it in this category alone.  I have faith in Hedges, who has cleaned up this season by proving he's more than just a 'breakthrough' contender.  Almost everyone has nominated him here.  Sadly, Oscar isn't always kind to young actors, and so he could still be snubbed, but I am predicting a nom for him.  Grant and Patel could both happen...but right now I think one of them will be left off for the likes of Liam Neeson.

Lead Actor
Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington for Fences

So, this was the kiss of death for Tom Hanks.  I think he needed this to stay in the race.  I don't think this will be our lineup.  I'm still a little hesitant to trust in the Garfield nom.  I think that Silence could cause confusion as to which performance to nominate and that could lead to him being snubbed.  I also don't wholly trust in Mortensen, who has felt like a fringe contender at best all season.  I still hold out faith that Edgerton will get in.  He didn't hit here, like I expected, but supposedly screeners went out very late and so that could explain it.  His role is such AMPAS bait and so I hate a strong feeling he'll surprise come nomination morning.

Lead Actress
Amy Adams for Arrival
Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train
Natalie Portman for Jackie
Emma Stone for La La Land
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

LMAO a thousand times for the randomness of this Blunt nomination.  OMG!!!  This has made my year.  So...we can count her out immediately, which frees up a spot here (which we know is going to Huppert), but I still think we could see a surprise in the form of Ruth Negga (I know, this seems crazy) replacing Streep.  Adams, Portman and Stone seem locked in.  Whoever takes this will most likely take the Oscar (cough*Stone*cough).

Monday, December 12, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: The Golden Globes ~ Nominations


Picture ~ Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight

So...my first thought was 'maybe they didn't see Silence' and then I read that they did so apparently they just really didn't like it, which is odd since they usually fawn all over Scorsese.  But, there is a lot of weird stuff happening all over these nominations.  Lion shows up a lot here, which was a touch unexpected, and I think both Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge are cemented firmly in this race now.

Picture ~ Comedy/Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

I did NOT see Deadpool coming, but Sing Street is such an awesome surprise.  Just saw it last night and I'm currently IN LOVE!

Director
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By the Sea

Ok, things are starting to get a little weird now, considering that Ford shows up here (just wait for all the Nocturnal Animals love) but the rest I sort of saw coming (didn't count on Jenkins, but he's doing VERY well this season).  Gibson...could be headed to the Oscars?

Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Nocturnal Animals showing up everywhere here is strange for the sole reason that it just feels so 'dead' as far as AMPAS is concerned.  In fact, I don't see it snagging a single nomination, especially not for Screenplay.  The rest are on their way to the Oscars, for sure.

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis for Fences
Naomi Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea

I don't know what to make of Hidden Figures.  Is it even in this race?  Spencer and Monae seem to be splitting decisions and not in a good way.  It's either one or the other, not both, which leads me to believe that neither will make it with AMPAS.

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg for Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel for Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals

Poor Michael Shannon.  The best reviews of the entire cast of his film and what looked like a surefire critics darling and a) he loses all the critics awards to Ali and b) be gets snubbed with the Globes in favor of his co-star.  And who the hell is Simon Helberg.  Ball was seriously dropped here.  Is Neeson even getting nominated?  They could have went with Foster or Sarsgaard or Hedges.  This is a very weird lineup.

Lead Actor ~ Drama
Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton for Loving
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington for Fences

The first real Hanks snub of the season and I'm seriously starting to think that both Edgerton and Garfield are getting Oscar noms in favor of Hanks.

Lead Actor ~ Comedy/Musical
Colin Farrell for The Lobster
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill for War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool

The fact that Russell Crowe was snubbed is heartbreaking, even if I saw it coming.  His comedic timing and chemistry with Gosling (who could have been double nominated and probably should have) was a thing of real beauty.  That being said, Farrell popping up is glorious.

Lead Actress ~ Drama
Amy Adams for Arrival
Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert for Elle
Ruth Negga for Loving
Natalie Portman for Jackie

This is the only category I predicted 5/5.  I called the Chastain nom.  They love to reach out to every possible star they can, and she made sense.  

Lead Actress ~ Comedy Musical
Annette Bening for 20th Century Women
Lily Collins for Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld for The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone for La La Land
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

LOL, didn't Lily Collins get...bad reviews?  I bet Steinfeld wishes this were a weaker year, because her reviews could have carried her to a Ellen Page style nom (she's already an Oscar nominee), but Stone is taking this in a walk and both Bening and Streep have their claws in that Oscar nom over Steinfeld, who simply won't happen.

Score
Arrival (Johann Johannsson)
Hidden Figures (Benjamin Wallfisch, Pharrell Williams & Hans Zimmer)
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Lion (Hauschka & Dustin O'Halloran) 
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)


I love seeing La La Land included all over the place because I was afraid the beautiful music would be shunned due to the song heavy soundtrack.  I don't know what to make of all the Moonlight attention in this category.  Is it happening?

Song

'Can't Stop The Feeling!' from Trolls
'City of Stars' from La La Land
'Faith' from Sing
'Gold' from Gold
'How Far I'll Go' from Moana

You nominated Sing Street for Picture and...don't include a single song when practically every one is better than the five you nominate?  This is just plain stupid.

Animated Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini 
Sing
Zootopia

I didn't expect them to love Sing so much.  

Foreign Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

We are starting to see a real consensus.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: American Film Institute (AFI) ~ Nominees


Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Sully
Zootopia

What does all this mean?  Jackie and Loving are, most likely, dead...Zootopia is winning the Animated Film Oscar, Fences is probably Top 5 (which means Denzel is probably happening in Director) and Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge are the REAL DEAL this season.  This is shaping up to look like an obvious Oscar ballot.

Monday, December 5, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: LAFCA


Alright, so LAFCA announced yesterday and...I'm not sure what this is supposed to be.  I find it funny when critics groups go out of their way to seem 'individual' to the point where they almost make no sense, especially when you look at their runner-up options.  I mean, Moonlight aside (because the reviews/buzz/accolades support it being at the top), these wins all feel like a group trying to be 'different', especially when you consider the fact that their runner-ups are all the current frontrunners.

In all honesty, despite La La Land not nabbing a single win outside of Original Score, I think this said more about it's inevitable Oscar slayage than anything else because it was practically runner-up in every other category.

Here's the shakedown:

Friday, December 2, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: Broadcast Film Critics Society (BFCA) ~ Nominations


So, after last year's ridiculous debacle regarding Star Wars, the BFCA has officially become a joke to most prognosticators.  They've skirted that line for years thanks to their ridiculous MTV-esque categories and their penchant for nominating everything (ala The Satellites) but now they're officially on the other side of that line.  Still, we've discussed The Satellites AND the Hollywood Film Awards (which are even worse, to be honest) so we may as well discuss these.  I'm NOT including their ridiculous sub-categories except one (Young Actor/Actress) because it's a) not that ridiculous and b) says something about this race that I want to address.

So let's talk..

Thursday, December 1, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: NYFCC


Picture

La La Land
The fact that this wins here despite the fact that it won NOTHING else and they so clearly adored Moonlight just goes to show the power of a universal crowd pleaser.  I can't see ANYTHING taking the Oscar over this.  It is written.

Director

Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
I have doubted him since the beginning, because he feels like such a critical darling that Oscar inevitably snubs, but his wins are starting to rack up (he also won NBR) and so maybe he will become a force.

Screenplay

Manchester By the Sea
I still expect this to repeat with Oscar.

Supporting Actress

Michelle Williams for Certain Women
&

Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea
I want to believe that this is still Michelle's year, but Davis is salivating over the chance to snatch that Oscar and she feels like a real Oscar choice, so I have such doubts!!!

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
I kind of hate myself right now for doubting his Oscar chances.  I mean, I still don't think he's locked in or anything, but I something brewing.

Lead Actor

Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea
Get that Oscar, Casey!

Lead Actress

Isabelle Huppert for Elle
&
Isabelle Huppert for The Things to Come
She's shaping up to be the Marion Cotillard of this year.  I'm more than OK with this!

Cinematography

Moonlight
I've doubted all things Moonlight, but it could be much stronger than anticipated.  It could also sweep through the critics and still wind up Oscar snubbed in the end.  This is a very tricky combination of critical darling with very un-Oscary material.

Animated Film

Zootopia
Are we serious?  I mean, I love this movie...and I wholly expect it to be Oscar unstoppable, but even with the critics?

Documentary Feature

O.J. Made in America
I did not see this film being as strong as it is...

Foreign Film

Toni Erdmann
I have a feeling this will be our Oscar winner...

First Film

The Edge of Seventeen
&
Krisha
And yet another win for Krisha.  I don't know what to make of this, but could it make a play for Documentary?  Is it eligible?  I need to find this out.

A Season Full of Awards: Satellite Awards ~ Nominations



So, these are always a mess, but they are fun to look at...kind of like a train wreck, although after last year maybe they are 'more prestigious' than the BFCA now?  Anyways, while we await the complete results of the NYFCC for the next 6 hours, we may as well talk about this mess from yesterday.