Manchester By the Sea
La La Land missing here makes sense even if I predicted that they'd still nominate it. It is a two-person show with little mention ever of the supporting cast, so the fact that they stuck with ensemble heavy films makes sense. Captain Fantastic kind of came out of nowhere though. I had heard rumbling that it could play well, but I didn't believe it. I guess I was wrong.
Viola Davis for Fences
Naomi Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea
So, it is now looking like this is our lineup. I didn't believe the Spencer nom but she hit here and the Globes so it looks like consensus has settled on her within the ensemble, and she's a previous Oscar winner who many think was snubbed back in 2013, so this makes sense. What an F-You to #OscarsSoWhite, too, if we get three actresses of color in one category.
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges for Manchester By the Sea
Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel for Lion
Ali and Bridges are locked in for the Oscars, but this category still feels ripe for a surprise, especially since Silence is a late contender with multiple options going for it in this category alone. I have faith in Hedges, who has cleaned up this season by proving he's more than just a 'breakthrough' contender. Almost everyone has nominated him here. Sadly, Oscar isn't always kind to young actors, and so he could still be snubbed, but I am predicting a nom for him. Grant and Patel could both happen...but right now I think one of them will be left off for the likes of Liam Neeson.
Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington for Fences
So, this was the kiss of death for Tom Hanks. I think he needed this to stay in the race. I don't think this will be our lineup. I'm still a little hesitant to trust in the Garfield nom. I think that Silence could cause confusion as to which performance to nominate and that could lead to him being snubbed. I also don't wholly trust in Mortensen, who has felt like a fringe contender at best all season. I still hold out faith that Edgerton will get in. He didn't hit here, like I expected, but supposedly screeners went out very late and so that could explain it. His role is such AMPAS bait and so I hate a strong feeling he'll surprise come nomination morning.
Amy Adams for Arrival
Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train
Natalie Portman for Jackie
Emma Stone for La La Land
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
LMAO a thousand times for the randomness of this Blunt nomination. OMG!!! This has made my year. So...we can count her out immediately, which frees up a spot here (which we know is going to Huppert), but I still think we could see a surprise in the form of Ruth Negga (I know, this seems crazy) replacing Streep. Adams, Portman and Stone seem locked in. Whoever takes this will most likely take the Oscar (cough*Stone*cough).