Friday, December 2, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: Broadcast Film Critics Society (BFCA) ~ Nominations


So, after last year's ridiculous debacle regarding Star Wars, the BFCA has officially become a joke to most prognosticators.  They've skirted that line for years thanks to their ridiculous MTV-esque categories and their penchant for nominating everything (ala The Satellites) but now they're officially on the other side of that line.  Still, we've discussed The Satellites AND the Hollywood Film Awards (which are even worse, to be honest) so we may as well discuss these.  I'm NOT including their ridiculous sub-categories except one (Young Actor/Actress) because it's a) not that ridiculous and b) says something about this race that I want to address.

So let's talk..



Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Sully

All ten of these nominees have a legitamate chance at an Oscar nomination right now, but Silence (which obviously hasn't screened for them) is 'sight unseen' a strong contender and so at least one of these will fail.  Hell or High Water is gaining serious steam and Hacksaw Ridge (the contender I didn't take seriously at all) is here to stay, it looks, but those two (along with Loving) I'd say are the most vulnerable, at the moment.

Ensemble

20th Century Woman
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight

Unlike SAG, BFCA doesn't need to use this category to announce their choices for Best Picture and so La La Land (which is all about two actors) didn't make the cut (expect it to show up at SAG, though).  Hidden Figures is making a stronger showing than I thought it would.

Director

Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Mel Gibson / Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins / Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan / Manchester By the Sea
David Mackenzie / Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve / Arrival
Denzel Washington / Fences

Scorsese will factor in with Oscar, but this was a nice boost for Mackenzie and Gibson who both have a dark horse shot at landing with Oscar as well.  It all depends on which film is the stronger with Oscar voters and which other films fail to land as strongly.  I don't think Washington is really in this game, but I could be wrong.  Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan feel like very strong contenders (I think Chazelle will WIN the Oscar) but I still think all but Chazelle have a chance to miss.

Film Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
Sully

I could see all repeat with Oscar, but I could also see Arrival and or Moonlight being vulnerable here because I'm still not sold as to how much Oscar will actually embrace either film; raves aside.

Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Sully

I don't think Nocturnal Animals will show up anywhere with Oscar, but the others look like they could be real contenders.  Silence will obvious factor, but Fences, Lion and Sully in particular feel safe.  I also think that Love & Friendship could surprise on Oscar nomination morning.

Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Loving
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight

I honestly don't know how Oscar will chose, because all seem logical.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis / Fences
Greta Gerwig / 20th Century Woman
Naomi Harris / Moonlight
Nicole Kidman / Lion
Janelle Monae / Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams / Manchester By the Sea

The Satellites went with Spencer and BFCA went with Monae, but neither really matter and so I think neither actress will make it to Oscar.  The other nominees all feel like the concensus choice, with Helen Mirren still very much in this race.

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali / Moonlight
Jeff Bridges / Hell or High Water
Ben Foster / Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges / Manchester By the Sea
Dev Patel / Lion
Michael Shannon / Nocturnal Animals

It's so weird to be so sure that someone will be nominated for/win the Oscar and yet have them nowhere to be seen because no one has seen his movie, but Liam Neeson will take someones place.  Ali is looking very strong now, and Bridges feels like a default nominee.  Shannon won't happen, unless he starts to sweep the critics, but for me the real show stealer here is Hedges who many had no faith in and yet he's getting mentions everywhere now, and not just for Breakthrough or Young Actor.  NBR awarded him Breakthrough, but now both BFCA, ISA and The Satellites have nominated him for Supporting Actor over bigger names.  I'm glad that I have been predicting him all year.

Lead Actor

Casey Affleck / Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton / Loving
Andrew Garfield / Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling / La La Land
Tom Hanks / Sully
Denzel Washington / Fences

I flip flop so much between whether Edgerton will get in for his quiet, sentimental biopic role or Garfield will get in for being in the prestige Scorsese picture and having such a banner year, but the other four look VERY Oscar safe.  And then again, maybe Hanks will get yet another snub and BOTH Edgerton and Garfield get in with Oscar.

Lead Actress

Amy Adams / Arrival
Annette Bening / 20th Century Woman
Isabelle Huppert / Elle
Ruth Negga / Loving
Natalie Portman / Jackie
Emma Stone / La La Land

Streep was snubbed here, which is SHOCKING, but this is not Oscar and Oscar most likely won't snub her.  Honestly, I think that Stone and Portman are locked in for their fight for the actual Oscar (which I think Stone will take in a walk, honestly) and Streep being Streep is locked in for being Streep and Huppert will be this year's Cotillard (critical darling who misses SAG but gets the Oscar nom) and so that last spot is, in my eyes, between Adams, Bening and Negga and I can't decide.  Bening makes sense as the veteran actress with Oscar goodwill in a role made for Oscar and Negga makes sense as the discovery in the biopic who charms the votors and then there is Adams in one of the most raved performances of the year (deservedly so) BUT...she's so quiet that I fear she'll get snubbed.

Young Actor/Actress

Lucas Hedges / Manchester By the Sea
Alex R. Hibbert / Moonlight
Lewis MacDougall / A Monster Calls
Madina Nalwanga / Queen of Katwe
Sunny Pawar / Lion
Hailee Steinfeld / The Edge of Seventeen

I included this merely to show that Hedges could have been nominated here and that was all...but he's strong enough to get both noms.

I'm not going to comment on the techs.  Right now we're just adding names to a list of contenders, but the guilds will start making the clearer separations.

Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
La La Land
Live By Night

Cinematography

Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Costumes

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Love & Friendship

Makeup & Hair

Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie
Star Trek Beyond

Visual Effects

Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
A Monster Calls

Score

Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

Song

'Audition' from La La Land
'Can't Stop the Feeling' from Trolls
'City of Stars' from La La Land
'Drive It Like You Stole It' from Sing Street
'How Far I'll Go' from Moana
'The Rules Don't Apply' from Rules Don't Apply

All contenders...not all will get nominated.

Best Animated Film

Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Trolls
Zootopia

This feels far too American and light to be an Oscar lineup.  

Best Foreign Film

Elle
The Handmaiden
Julieta
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Could this be the strongest year for Foreign Film at the Oscars?  All of these films have raves and all are in the hunt.

14 comments:

  1. Whoa! You've been posting so much about awards. To be honest, I don't really pay that much attention to most awards other than the Globes, SAG and of course Oscars, though I'm paying more attention to Spirit Awards now as I've been watching so many indie films. I really hope Moonlight gain traction come Oscar. Despite its un-Oscar-y material (and perhaps BECAUSE of it), it's masterful storytelling that's wonderfully-acted by mostly unknowns.

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    1. I told myself that the best way to get back into the swing was to make a commitment to something and stick with it. Since following the award's race is something I do even when I'm not blogging about it, I figured this was the best thing to stick with. I'm overwhelming myself a bit with feeling like I have to post about it all the time, but I'll make it...

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  2. The more interviews Portman does, the closer Stone is to that Oscar. Also apparently Jackie is too complex for dear old Academy Members. It's so cool you're excited about the race I kinda lost my movie/Awards mojo this year

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    1. Does Natalie make a fool outta herself or something? Asso how is Jackie complex? Just sounds like another bio about a famous person to me. :T

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    2. Zach...read about Jackie. It's not just a 'biopic'. Trust.

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    3. LOL, Portman...I never saw her as a threat to that Oscar, as you know. I've been confident in Stone since, like, TIFF. If anything, I'd say Huppert is in second place ATM.

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  3. I love seeing Drive It Like You Stole It and Ben Foster in there, even though this is kind of a joke.

    Come back to twitter.

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  4. This is the one awards show I really don't like as they always have crappy bands playing and showing some of the worst speeches like that fucking kid from that movie Excruciatingly Ludicrous and Incredibly Cloy.

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    1. LOL, all I care to remember about Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is that they called it ELIC all season and that made me laugh...

      And I loved that book SO MUCH...but that movie was a MESS.

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  5. I am looking forward to most of these films. I actually saw Sully which was good but not sure it should be up for awards. What was Streep in? Was it "Streep in a woman picking her nose" haaaaaa sorry:)

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    1. Streep actually has STELLAR reviews this year, so her nomination, it seems, won't be wholly undeserved...even if she certainly doesn't NEED another one.

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  6. And you get a nom, and you get a nom...

    LOL, I'm just glad La La Land won.

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