So, I've been out of the Oscar watch game now for 2 years and the sting is strong in my heart, since this is one of the reasons I started this blog. So, while I can't promise this will last all season, I want it to so pray for me. This could be my ease back into relevant blogging.
So, Oscar season is officially upon us with the Gotham nomination announcement this morning, and so here are the nominees and my take on their Oscar chances.
Everybody Wants Some!!
Manchester by the Sea
I think Manchester by the Sea is firmly in the Best Picture race, top 5 even, and have felt this way for some time. Moonlight is a critical darling with legs, it appears, and so I am currently predicting it will snag a BP nom at Oscar, but I'm not entirely confident as the subject matter/themes are not always a slam dunk with Oscar.
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
Not going to lie, I have no idea what to make of this category yet.
Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Robert Eggers for The Witch
Anna Rose Holmer for The Fits
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Swiss Army Man
Trey Edward Shults for Krisha
Richard Tanne for Southside with You
No one here will come close to an Oscar nom, but they rarely ever do. Still, YAY for Kwan & Scheinert!!!
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Moonlight, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney; Screenplay by Barry Jenkins
Paterson, Jim Jarmusch
I'm currently predicting all of these (except Paterson) for an Oscar nom, and I strongly feel that Lonergan will win the Oscar.
Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water
Adam Driver in Paterson
Joel Edgerton in Loving
Craig Robinson in Morris from America
Affleck is a lock for the nom and is in serious hunt for the win, but it is Edgerton showing up here that makes me the happiest because I've never stopped predicting him and still think he's happening and so here's to hoping that this is just the beginning of his season tour. Bridges making it here for a Supporting role could be telling as to his strength this year. His reviews were very good, and his film could be a silent contender, so I'd watch out for him.
Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship
Annette Bening in 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert in Elle
Ruth Negga in Loving
Natalie Portman in Jackie
Portman is the only lock here, but Huppert showing up (rather unexpectedly) could be a big sign as to her strength and the support behind her. All of these women are in the race, except poor Beckinsale (who was outstanding), but she could very well show up at the Globes.
Lily Gladstone in Certain Women
Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea
Royalty Hightower in The Fits
Sasha Lane in American Honey
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Witch
Hedges reviews are...in a league of their own, so I'm expecting him to take this (although Gladstone feels very Gothams) and I strongly feel he's in the hunt for the Oscar as well, especially if Neeson (the presumed frontrunner) fails to wow.
Special Jury Award For Ensemble Performance
Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Alex Hibbert, André Holland, Jharrel Jerome, Janelle Monáe, Jaden Piner, Trevante Rhodes, and Ashton Sanders.
This film is coming out the gate strong, but I struggle to see it lighting up the industry awards, even if it dominates with critics. We shall see.