Thursday, October 20, 2016

A Season Full of Awards: Gotham


So, I've been out of the Oscar watch game now for 2 years and the sting is strong in my heart, since this is one of the reasons I started this blog.  So, while I can't promise this will last all season, I want it to so pray for me.  This could be my ease back into relevant blogging.

So, Oscar season is officially upon us with the Gotham nomination announcement this morning, and so here are the nominees and my take on their Oscar chances.


Best Feature
Certain Women
Everybody Wants Some!!
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Paterson

I think Manchester by the Sea is firmly in the Best Picture race, top 5 even, and have felt this way for some time.  Moonlight is a critical darling with legs, it appears, and so I am currently predicting it will snag a BP nom at Oscar, but I'm not entirely confident as the subject matter/themes are not always a slam dunk with Oscar.

Best Documentary
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
Tower
Weiner

Not going to lie, I have no idea what to make of this category yet.

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Robert Eggers for The Witch
Anna Rose Holmer for The Fits
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Swiss Army Man
Trey Edward Shults for Krisha
Richard Tanne for Southside with You

No one here will come close to an Oscar nom, but they rarely ever do.  Still, YAY for Kwan & Scheinert!!!

Best Screenplay
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Moonlight, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney; Screenplay by Barry Jenkins
Paterson, Jim Jarmusch

I'm currently predicting all of these (except Paterson) for an Oscar nom, and I strongly feel that Lonergan will win the Oscar.

Best Actor
Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water
Adam Driver in Paterson
Joel Edgerton in Loving
Craig Robinson in Morris from America

Affleck is a lock for the nom and is in serious hunt for the win, but it is Edgerton showing up here that makes me the happiest because I've never stopped predicting him and still think he's happening and so here's to hoping that this is just the beginning of his season tour.  Bridges making it here for a Supporting role could be telling as to his strength this year.  His reviews were very good, and his film could be a silent contender, so I'd watch out for him.

Best Actress
Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship
Annette Bening in 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert in Elle
Ruth Negga in Loving
Natalie Portman in Jackie

Portman is the only lock here, but Huppert showing up (rather unexpectedly) could be a big sign as to her strength and the support behind her.  All of these women are in the race, except poor Beckinsale (who was outstanding), but she could very well show up at the Globes.

Breakthrough Actor
Lily Gladstone in Certain Women
Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea
Royalty Hightower in The Fits
Sasha Lane in American Honey
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Witch

Hedges reviews are...in a league of their own, so I'm expecting him to take this (although Gladstone feels very Gothams) and I strongly feel he's in the hunt for the Oscar as well, especially if Neeson (the presumed frontrunner) fails to wow.

Special Jury Award For Ensemble Performance
Moonlight
Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Alex Hibbert, André Holland, Jharrel Jerome, Janelle Monáe, Jaden Piner, Trevante Rhodes, and Ashton Sanders.

This film is coming out the gate strong, but I struggle to see it lighting up the industry awards, even if it dominates with critics.  We shall see.

22 comments:

  1. Man your posts are always relevant! This year feels so rich yet baron, it drives me nuts.

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    1. I don't think it looks baron at all. Even from an Oscar perspective, which is always limited compared to the actual film year, it looks pretty rich:

      Jackie
      Loving
      Nocturnal Animals
      Arrival
      Manchester by the Sea
      Moonlight
      Silence
      20th Century Woman
      Elle
      Fences
      La La Land
      Paterson
      The Red Turtle
      Moana
      Live by Night
      A Monster Calls
      Toni Erdmann
      It's Only the End of the World
      Aquarius
      Passengers
      Miss Sloane
      Collateral Beauty

      ...and that's just off the top of my head, films yet to be released.

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    2. Well looks like Moonlight came out today, I think I know what I'll be doing this weekend xD

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    3. Look forward to hearing your thoughts on it.

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    4. Doesn't look like it's in theaters around here yet... how about on your end?

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    5. Honestly, I haven't even been by the theater to check times for anything in months, so I have no clue.

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  2. Ok so glad to see you here and what you say is always relevant and I become more knowledgeable when I read anything you write. Now I will check out all these films but I believe La La Land will be in Oscar contention

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    1. La La Land will SLAY. I'm currently predicting it to WIN Picture, Director, Film Editing, Lead Actress, Cinematography, Sound Mixing & Original Song.

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  3. I saw both Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight, and i think both are going to be strong awards players this season. Affleck is great and the Oscar is between him and Washington. Hedges is very good but I don't think it will be nominated, maybe some critics awards but not an Oscar.
    Moonlight is one of the best movies I've seen in years, the acting here is great, and Naomie Harris is going to win Supporting Actress, since her main rival (Williams in Manchester by the sea) has only two or three scenes, and she's overshadowed by Affleck. Harris is terrific in her portraying of a drug addicted mother. Mahershala Ali is even better than Harris, but he is in the movie only in the first chapter.

    Moonlight nominations: picture, director, sup. actor, sup. actress, screenplay, editing and maybe cinematography

    Manchester by the Sea nominations: picture, director, actor, sup. actress, screenplay and maybe editing

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    1. Hedges is a hunch. His reviews were VERY good (star is born) and he's in a very weak category with no real frontrunner ATM and is in a film that is considered an acting showcase that is poised to be Top 5 Oscar contender, so I have a feeling he'll get swooped in, especially if he manages to win his fair share of breakthrough awards.

      I'm far more sold on him than Ali, who has great reviews but a much smaller role in a film that is going to be a trickier sell to AMPAS.

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    2. So Who do you think that will be nominated in the four acting categories? ;)

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    3. ATM:

      Supporting Actress
      Gerwig/20th Century Woman
      Harris/Moonlight
      Kidman/Lion
      Nyong'o/Queen of Katwe
      Williams/Manchester by the Sea

      Supporting Actor
      Bridges/Hell or High Water
      Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
      Neeson/Silence
      Sarsgaard/Jackie
      Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

      Lead Actor
      Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
      Edgerton/Loving
      Gosling/La La Land
      Hanks/Sully
      Washington/Fences

      Lead Actress
      Bening/20th Century Woman
      Davis/Fences
      Negga/Loving
      Portman/Jackie
      Stone/La La Land

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  4. Bridges for Hell or High Water is so vanilla. Foster was the clear star of that movie. Even Pine, I would say was stronger just because he was playing something different from the norm. Bridges wasn't.

    Manchester By The Sea wasn't catching my eye until recently, but now I'll have to see it. I love seeing The Witch, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Swiss Army Man here.

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    1. LOL, I haven't seen Hell or High Water yet, but from what I read and see it doesn't look like Bridges is doing anything new for him...and yet his reviews (and the buzz) is strong for him. It doesn't hurt that his category is rather vacant ATM.

      I saw Swiss Army Man after your recommendation and it is, currently, my favorite film of the year. I wish that Radcliffe could muster some traction this year, because he's incredible.

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  5. I really miss your Oscars posts. I'm so clueless in that area and reading your posts made me feel super knowledgeable when talking with friends and family!
    I'm behind on so many movies in this post, I can't wait to see Manchester by the Sea :)
    - Allie

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    1. Awww, you're too kind, Allie. I hope that I can keep this going this year!

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  6. I haven't seen any of these, but I'd really like to, starting with Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. I caught that preview somewhere and have been enamored by it ever since.

    Good to you have you back, brother. Even if it's sparingly, you know?

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    1. Yeah, Manchester looks great.

      Thanks, bro. I'm hoping to start picking up the pace a bit here.

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  7. Oh, I hope we see more of these posts! :)

    Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight seem like they're primed for nominations, but I'm not sure the Academy will feel the need to reward them with wins. La La Land could beat both of them in Screenplay, for instance.

    Yay for the Daniels! If only Radcliffe could be in there, too!

    Glad to see American Honey get a mention. Between that and Man Down (both unseen), I'm wondering if LaBeouf could land a Best Actor CinSpec nom.

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    1. LeBeouf snagging a nom would be awesome. He's a nom for Fury, right? His ego and weird antics certainly take away from his talent, but that talent is there.

      La La Land will slay. I'm so happy about this development. SO HAPPY! That being said, I don't see it winning screeplay solely because that is the one aspect of the film that's been criticized. I think Lonergan has that one right now.

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    2. Ha, LaBeouf is actually a two-time nominee for Fury and co-writing the song "Dig It" from Holes. So, #3 could be on the way. Like Radcliffe, I just want him to break away from his image and continue to choose interesting roles to display his talent.

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    3. I just hope Radcliffe holds onto his nom for Swiss Army Man!

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