Thursday, July 16, 2015

Updated Oscar Predictions Pt. 5: Let's get technical...


So, now it's time to muse over what I think will and won't be nominated in the technical categories.  At this point in the year, there are so many unknowns that it makes it hard to pinpoint what is going to make an impression on Oscar.  We know that they love period pieces, and we know that a BP nom really does mean something with Oscar as far as the way it splinters into other categories.  We've seen many an undeserving nom in a category rich with potential because Oscar liked a movie more.

So, what are we thinking?


Film Editing
Beasts of No Nation
Bridge of Spies
Joy
Silence
Suffragette

We know that Oscar tends to gravitate towards their picks for Best Picture here as well, unless a film so UBER flashy.  While I have latched onto the idea that Spectre could really make a play here, I'm feel pretty good about this set.  

Art Direction/Production Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Pan
Suffragette

Here is where things get a little harder to predict.  Oscar loves their period pieces, especially if they're in Best Picture, but they also have embraced fantasy and sci-fi when the film is of particular note or if it's so gaudy that there is no denying the eye-candy-sore.  Cinderella had it's beauty singled out almost everywhere, and it's all royal and princessy and Oscar likes that stuff, and Pan, on a hunch, is going to get pushed in all of these technical categories (the date move is telling), so I'm thinking that it could really make a play here (and elsewhere).  Then you have the period bait that Oscar adores and most likely will embrace in Best Picture, so that is where my head is...ATM.

Cinematography
Beasts of No Nation
Carol
The Revenant
Silence
Youth

I'm on the cusp of predicting Son of Saul here.  From what I've heard, the film is BEAUTIFUL and very artistic in the way that it is shot, but as I already noted, I'm just not sure how it'll actually translate with Oscar.  I have a hunch, considering how Fukunaga's other work has looked, that Beasts of No Nation is going to be stunning to look at, and if Oscar embraces it, there is no reason it won't embrace it everywhere.

Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Pan

I almost took Pan out, based on that awful poster and the conundrum that is Tiger Lily, but I'm leaving it for now since it is bound to be loud and memorable.  The trailer for Brooklyn dropped while I was compiling these, and those costumes are just beautiful.  I'm still not sold that the film will be anything close to an Oscar contender, but the detail and crispness of those designs is certainly eye-catching.

Makeup & Hairstyling
The Danish Girl
Pan
The Revenant

The only real question I have here is...will Star Wars: The Force Awakens actually make a play?

Visual Effects
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Jurassic World
The Martian
Pan
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Marvel, space, animals, fairy-tales...covering all bases and I'm sure I'm missing something.

Sound Editing
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I've made it clear countless times that these Sound categories are really hard for me to predict, but there are certain factors at play to make predicting these a little easier.  Very little.  Mostly I just steal ideas from other bloggers and then filter in a film or two that I think will hit well with Oscar to make it look less obvious that I was just on their site.

Sound Mixing
In the Heart of the Sea
Inside Out
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I'm holding out for Inside Out to snag a very deserved nom here.

Original Score
Carter Burwell/Carol
Alexadre Desplat/Suffragette
Michael Giacchino/Inside Out
Dan Romer/Beasts of No Nation
Howard Shore/Silence

Slowly, but surely, the Original Score category is becoming one of my absolute favorites.  I think this has a lot to do with compiling personal awards, because I listen to a lot of scores in order to make the right choices for my awards.  The more I listen, the more obsessed I become, and so I get excited predicting these and intentionally listening for them when watching films.  I'm really hoping that Burwell finally gets his nom.  He's produced some great work, but no attention from the Academy so far.  Howard Shore has 3 Oscars, Desplat finally won last year, and is sitting on seven additional nominations to his name.  Giacchino is an Oscar winner.  And then we have Romer, who helped create some beautiful work on the Beasts of the Southern Wild score, and so I'm anticipating him getting some recognition for his work here.

Original Song
Cinderella
Pan
Ricki & The Flash
Sing Street
Spectre

Inside Out doesn't have an Original Song...so we have to look elsewhere now.

10 comments:

  1. I have no idea what to do now that Inside Out doesn't have an original song! I've gone for a Paper Towns track, but who knows. I'm also banking on a blockbuster you haven't included to have a decent showing. ;)

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    Replies
    1. I need to just embrace Mad Max...

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  2. I suck at picking the sound categories too. I think you'll be right with a lot of these. I'd kind of love it if Star Wars got in make up.

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    Replies
    1. It could very well happen with Star Wars, and I had it predicted a while back...Star Trek made it in...but the sequel didn't. They LOVE it when character's age or there are prosthetics involved, which is why I went with what I went with.

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  3. I think Revenant will do very well with technical nominations

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    Replies
    1. As you can see, I agree!

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    2. You don't have it in some categories where I think it will be nominated - costumes for example.

      If they nominate Pan, I'll vomit.

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    3. Granted, these were typed out and scheduled so that they'd drop while I was on vacation...and so this was all done prior to the trailer drop for The Revenant...but even after the trailer drop...I'm skeptical it'll be a HUGE Oscar draw.

      But we'll see.

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  4. Star Wars will win in the sound categories and special effects. I have not heard the music but I also love listening to it because some become part of the film

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    Replies
    1. Star Wars could be a technical force, for sure.

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