Thursday, July 16, 2015

Updated Oscar Predictions Pt. 4: You can't fix bad writing...


Moving along in our assumptions, let's talk about scripts.  We all know that every great film starts with an idea that is accompanied by a pen and a pad.  Without that script, a great film cannot be made.  Sure, there are films that survive minimal scripting due to visual dynamics or an impressive cast, but bottom line is that if your story is dumb or your dialog is awful or your characters are unlikable then no amount of lipstick is going to make it pretty.  So, a script is very important and usually tied directly to a film's chances at Best Picture consideration...so the following predictions shouldn't surprise you at all.

I'll give you a hint...it's an even split so all ten predicted screenplays come from Best Picture predictions.

And here's why:


Adapted Screenplay
Beasts of No Nation
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Silence

There are some questions as to eligibility (or more placement) of some scripts, but it appears that Bridge of Spies is an Original work after all.  These five works are predicted here because these are the five films I have faith in, Best Picture wise, and with how topical these films are, if they get BP noms, I don't think they'll miss here (although I have a feeling that The Revenant, even with a Best Picture nomination, could miss out here since it most likely will not be dialog heavy and Oscar likes dialog).

What could I be missing?

The glaring omission is clearly Steve Jobs, but like I said in my first post in these updates, I'm not sure how I feel about it.  Still, it's Sorkin...and Oscar likes him (as they should), so I'm debating throwing him in over The Revenant come next month.  After that, the only film that I see with a chance against these six would be 45 Years, and that's if it becomes a serious critics darling and is seen as something special.  I'm not sold on anything else, at the moment.

Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Joy
Suffragette
Youth

Here, I'm a little shakier because I think that there are a lot of contenders in the mix, and so something could fail here.  Bridge of Spies feels solid, but then it could also be seen as too standard, and if it rides Spielberg's name to a filler BP nom, it could wind up there and with a tech or two.  Youth could also be one of those fringe BP contenders that survives on the strength of the cast and not the writing, although the writing has been singled out a time or two, so I have a feeling if it manages BP, it's getting in here.  Still, I'm really only confident in Inside Out and Suffragette, with Joy a very strong possibility.

What could I be missing?

A lot.  Demolition, The Hateful Eight, Irrational Man, Mistress America, Our Brand is Crisis, Sicario, Son of Saul, Three Generations, Trainwreck...all of these or none of these could be contenders in this race.  

I'm really getting this sneaking feeling that Son of Saul could get in here.

4 comments:

  1. These are a tough call, but I'm basically with you on these lineups. We agree 100% in Original Screenplay.

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    1. These are tough to call because it relies so much on Best Picture (as does most everything right now).

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  2. Sounds good to me but then my head is up my ass with this:)

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