Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Updated Oscar Predictions Pt. 2: The Top Ten


Alright, so I wanted to break this down a little bit as far as my predictions so that I could spend a little time explaining why I'm predicting certain things.  First things first, let's talk about Best Picture.  There are many, many possibilities, and like you saw in the last post, there are ten contenders (and they could wind up being serious contenders) that I'm not predicting right now, so the possibilities are quite vast at the moment.  Still, there are ten films that, for me, seem like safer bets for one reason or another, and so I'm going to discuss them here, in order how how I perceive their likeliness to be.


#1 ~ Silence
I understand that this is a risky #1, mostly because it's not certain yet that this film is actually being released this year, but the film has finished shooting and so they have six months to wrap up post-production and get this thing in the Oscar race, and I have a feeling (since the studio seems pretty antsy to get it done this year) that that is what is going to happen.  This Oscar race feels void of a frontrunner at this point, and so if Silence gets dropped this year, it could be that undeniable contender that rakes in the wins.  So, while the rest of the world is lying in wait for final word (Scorsese apparently is saying he wants to wait until 2016), I'm hedging my bets that this is going to come out blazing in December. 

#2 ~ Suffragette
The trailer looked really well done, and early word from the test screenings were VERY positive on this one, but more than that, this looks just like the kind of handsomely done conventional biopic about a very topical (and extremely relevant) subject that Oscar tends to lap up.  The campaign for this is going to be huge, and with the right push and the right field, I could actually see this aiming at the win here.

#3 ~ Inside Out
I questioned a little while ago whether or not this could win Best Picture, and while I still don't think it's out of the question, the nomination is far more secure.  The reviews for this are unanimously great, and deservedly so, and with an expanded field (which I honestly don't think it needs), there is no way that this is missing out here. 

#4 ~ Beasts of No Nation
True story, this was all over my April Fools predictions...until Netflix bought the film and I hastily took it out.  I got nervous.  I didn't know how they were going to release this, and when prominent theaters started releasing statements that they were refusing to show the film I assumed it's Oscar chances were all but dead.  Well, low and behold, Netflix has a plan, and a good one, and the early word back from test screenings is BEYOND positive.  Like, "this could actually win Best Picture" positive. 

#5 ~ Bridge of Spies
My initial April predictions had this winning the big prize and a slew of other statuettes as well, but that trailer was so uninspired, and the rest of the this pack is starting to look stronger all around (and those early screenings produced a sea of underwhelmed responses), but this is Spielberg and this is Hanks and this is history and because of that, this is probably secure in a spot in the expanded Best Picture field. 

#6 ~ Joy
David O. Russell is on fire with Oscar right now.  Everyone wants to work with him and, despite constant talk about him being a total dick, he keeps producing films people want to see.  This cast is insane, and while the story itself (the creator of the Miracle Mop) sounds so light, it's bound to be an entertaining character piece, and early word on the backstory is very promising.  I'm getting more and more excited about this one. 

#7 ~ Carol
Cannes showed us that this was a contender.  I'm not sure if it'll actually win anything, since Haynes is often so...cold (from an Oscar perspective), but I'm sure that this lesbian period drama will amp up the topical significance, and it is said to be Haynes most accessible work.  Blanchett is always a draw, especially for Oscar, and fresh of a Cannes wins, this should be set to make a dent, at least with the nominations.  

#8 ~ The Danish Girl
With so much transgender news this year, this film almost feels like the film to beat in some ways.  It could very well become that statement piece about the current state of the nation, and if Hooper does this incredible story justice, the Oscar may feel obliged to shower it with awards.  Still, this is a very controversial subject and one that Oscar has never really embraced, even when the critics and audiences begged it to.  Oscar may look at a film like Suffragette as the Crash to this Brokeback, if that makes sense.  That, and I just don't trust Hooper like I want to. 

#9 ~ The Revenant
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is coming off of a HUGE year, with his three Oscar wins for Birdman, but as much as I want to say that this is going to be a locked and loaded hit with Oscar voters, Birdman was such a departure for Inarritu, and this film is said to be very much in his wheelhouse of misery porn.  This grim western of survival and death is said to be extremely depressing and brutal, and that is a big difference from the black-comedy commentary on Hollywood he delivered last year.  Still, his track record with actors is a big deal, and the buzz around this project could make it a safe bet for a nom in an expanded field, especially if the techs go for it.

#10 ~ Youth
This feels like something Oscar will adore.  It's a look at aging through the eyes of a recent Oscar winner with raved performances that could be seen as reflective of the majority of Oscar voters and picked up very nice reviews out of Cannes.  That being said, since Cannes it feels to have fallen a bit in the buzz department, and with Son of Saul getting so much attention since Cannes wrapped, I have a feeling that this could be slipping despite it's obvious appeal.

18 comments:

  1. Bridge of Spies looks so damn boring that I almost fell asleep during the trailer. Thank God for The Revenant to shake things up, literally everything else looks safe and vanilla

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    1. The Revenant trailer was STUNNING!

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  2. Out of all these contenders, the ones I'm looking forward to are Carol and The Revenant. Carol because it's got Rooney Mara and the Bossy Aussie herself Cate Blanchett and I loved Far From Heaven, so I think Todd Haynes will deliver. Plus, I'm psyched for The Revenant because it's DiCaprio and Tom Hardy! How could I miss? I also love that Inside Out could be up for Best Picture.
    But Bridge of Spies doesn't look very memorable and I'm surpringly dreading Joy. I say surprisingly because I loved Silver Linings Playbook and only liked American Hustle. It's likely because I'm not crazy about DOR casting Jennifer Lawrence as another woman about twice her age. In the set photo of her with the little girl, she looks like the girl's sister playing dress up. I'm not really looking forward to The Danish Girl either. Not because it's about a transgendered woman, but because I'm not too crazy about Tom Hooper and it seems like such a ploy for awards. If it gets any significant awards traction, I still fear how Hooper and Redmayne will be on the campaign trail and how aggressive they'll be.

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    1. Those are probably my most anticipated here, along with Beasts of No Nation. I have hope that The Danish Girl will be something special, but I'm skeptical.

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  3. I'm really looking forward to Suffragette and the preview does look wonderful but I just saw a poster for the film and it is so dreadful if that's the one they are going with it could tamp down enthusiasm. I was underwhelmed by the Bridge of Spies trailer but it has all the elements I love so I'll probably give it a try. Danish Girl I think will be too divisive as was Brokeback to capture the big prize though I'm sure Redmayne will be throwing his legs in the air and hollering come in again just like he did last year.

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    1. That visual of Redmayne is all sorts of alarming!

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  4. Suffragette does look really good and so does Bridge of Spies which i remember reading about in the 70's (i wasn't around when it actually happened:)) I am also quite intrigues with "The Danish Girl" because, when i was a kid, I again, read about this in one of my books. I can't believe that is supposed to be Eddie Redemayne -he looks like Jessican Chastain

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    1. LOL at the Jessica Chastain comparison. That's been a meme here on the internet for quite a while now.

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  5. Excellent work! I agree with most of these, except I'm still (perhaps foolishly) hesitant on Beasts of No Nation and Youth.

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    1. You never know...I could be foolishly optimistic.

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  6. I have seen Youth and personally I thought it was brilliant, beautifully directed by Sorrentino, with incredible performances by Michael Caine, Harvey Keitel (he was amazing, probably the MVP) and Jane Fonda (who has one scene and steals the movie, phenomenal one-scene-wonder). Weisz starts off as kind of shaky but then she relaxes into a rather nice performance and has a killer monologue, and Dano is also good. It would be worthy of many nominations and I personally liked it more than The Great Beauty, but I'm not sure about the Oscars. I have a feeling they're going to snub it, even if it's great (I'm hoping to be wrong).

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    1. Thanks for the insight on the flick! I hope that, if it is as brilliant as you say, Oscar embraces it!

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  7. I'm looking forward to a lot of these. I still don't think Inside Out will sneak in the Best Picture race, but it's pretty much already won Best Animated.

    Redmayne and Lawrence up for possible Oscar noms again? Can't wait to see this. lol

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    1. Gurl...embrace the Pixar...it's happening!

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  8. Does anyone think it's weird that two of this years Best Picture contenders 'Inside Out' and 'Joy' both feature a protagonist named Joy? You think that might get confusing somewhere down the line?

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    1. Hmmm, not sure there will be confusion, to be honest.

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  9. I don't think Silence will get released this year. The film currently has a 2016 release which means a limited one at the end of 2015 but I dont think it will release until November next year because the film has had many production mishaps and delays plus Scorsese likes to take his time - he took 5 months to make the pilot of Boardwalk Empire - but I hope I'm wrong since I'm looking forward to this one.

    I'm also not sure whether Beasts of No Nation will get embraced by the Academy considering its releasing on Netflix.

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    1. It may get pushed to 2016 (or I guess I should say, it may just stay there), but the studio has been vocal about wanting to release it in November, and he has time, so I see no reason why it won't get released this year.

      Wolf of Wall Street got bumped up.

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