Wednesday, June 3, 2015

June Oscar Predictions...


The major development or change here is that I'm currently predicting Silence to come out this year.  I could be wrong, and there are reasons to predict it for this year and reasons to predict it for next, but word is that he's finished shooting, and while he has stated he's aiming for 2016, the studio has said they are aiming for November...of this year, so for now I'm assuming we'll get it this year.

Which makes me an ass, I know.

Between the reactions from Cannes for Carol, early ink on Inside Out and the new Suffragette trailer, some presumed front-runners are making themselves seen in my predictions.  

So, here are my current predictions:


Picture

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
Joy
The Revenant
I Saw the Light
Silence
Suffragette
Youth

Director

Sarah Gavron/Suffragette
Todd Haynes/Carol
Martin Scorsese/Silence
Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies
Paolo Sorrentino/Youth

Film Editing

Bridge of Spies
Joy
The Revenant
Silence
Spectre

Adapted Screenplay

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
Silence
I Saw the Light

Original Screenplay

Inside Out
Joy
Suffragette
Three Generations
Youth

Supporting Actress

Helena Bonham Carter/Suffragette
Anne-Marie Duff/Suffragette
Rooney Mara/Carol
Ellen Page/Freeheld
Isabella Rossellini/Joy

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro/Joy
Benicio Del Toro/Sicario
Tom Hardy/The Revenant
Harvey Keitel/Youth
Liam Neeson/Silence

Lead Actor

Michael Caine/Youth
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Andrew Garfield/Silence
Tom Hiddleston/I Saw the Light
Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

Lead Actress

Cate Blanchett/Carol
Elle Fanning/Three Generations
Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Carey Mulligan/Suffragette
Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Art Direction/Production Design

Carol
The Danish Girl
Pan
Silence
Suffragette

Cinematography

Bridge of Spies
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant
Silence
Youth

Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
Far From the Madding Crowd
Pan
Suffragette

Makeup

The Danish Girl
Pan
Silence

Visual Effects

Avenger: Age of Ultron
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Editing

Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Silence
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing

I Saw the Light
In the Heart of the Sea
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Original Score

Carter Burwell/Carol
Alexandre Desplat/Suffragette
Michael Giancchino/Inside Out
Thomas Newman/Bridge of Spies
Howard Shore/Silence

Original Song

Inside Out
Pan
Ricki and the Flash
Sing Street
Spectre

Animated Feature

The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Little from the Fish Shop
The Little Prince
The Prophet

40 comments:

  1. Even if Silence comes out either this year or next, I just want to see Andrew Garfield become part of the Oscar nominees club. Him, and Tom Hardy!

    But anyway, seriously excited to see all the love for Suffragette. I hope this will be a seriously player this year. About time there was a movie on the history of the female vote/feminism!

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    1. Garfield, given his career paths, should be a nominee eventually, but this role in particular should get him close, if not right in the mix.

      Suffragette has been my #1 push all year, and I'm not letting go of that dream.

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  2. Now comes the time to set these aside and look at them later to see how spot on you are. I can see Suffragette be here given what it is about. Time will tell:)

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    1. I'm just hoping I do better than last year!

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  3. oh God if both Hardy and Hiddles are going to get nominated my ovaries are gonna explode so freaking hard

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  4. No love for Mad Max: Fury Road? That deserves all of the nominations.

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    1. I haven't seen it, but from what I heard it's loved and probably does deserve some mentions...but I don't see that happening with Oscar. BFCA, sure, since they have all those action categories, but not Oscar.

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  5. Most of the films this year seem to be bio-pics... :P

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    1. In terms of Oscar, those are the ones that tend to play the best, since Oscar voters seem to think they are the most worthy. It's unfortunate, since very rarely does a biopic feel inspired anymore, but in terms of predicting, they are generally the safest bets.

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  6. And also about trans-gender people, odd coincidence XD

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    1. Yeah, this year seems really strong for LGBT films. The Danish Girl, Freeheld, Three Generations, Carol; all of which look like very strong possibilities with Oscar this year. It is also a very strong year for female driven films, which is nice, with the aforementioned Carol, Freeheld and Three Generations alongside the likes of Joy, Suffragette and even Inside Out!

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    2. I'll say, though I'm surprised you didn't put Spectre for cinematography, it looks amazing :)

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    3. I had it predicted previously, and it does look stellar, but this year has so many films that look so beautiful and interesting visually, and you can only predict five.

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    4. true XD So what are your favorite films? XD

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    5. This is such a loaded question! I'm currently working on compiling my Top 100 Films list, and at the moment my Top 12 looks like this:

      1) Mommy (2014)
      2) Jules and Jim (1962)
      3) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)
      4) The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (1964)
      5) The Purple Rose of Cairo (1985)
      6) The Earrings of Madame De... (1954)
      7) Pierrot le Fou (1965)
      8) Beauty and the Beast (1991)
      9) Cinema Paradiso (1988)
      10) In the Bedroom (2001)
      11) In the Mood for Love (2001)
      12) Rocco and His Brothers (1961)

      But that could change tomorrow!

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    6. I have not seen half of these! :D XD

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    7. I hope you get a chance to! They're all wonderful.

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    8. btw, how do you feel about 70's romance movies? XD

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    9. Can't say I'm super-versed in them. Give me some examples and I'll let you know.

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    10. Same Time, Next Year, Love Story, The Way We Were, etc XD

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    11. I've only seen Love Story, and I liked it. I don't think I've seen many 70's romance movies though. I love the Old Hollywood romances of the 40's and 50's though...but I'm underversed in 70's romance ATM.

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    12. Oh okay XD btw is there anywhere else we can have a proper discussion? Doing it like this is kinda clunky and awkward if you ask me XD

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    13. I was going to ask if you're on Twitter. My twitter handle is:

      @fististhoughts

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    14. Sounds good...talk to you there.

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  7. I don't see Youth being THAT big, but who knows. Silence could slay, but I wonder about Inside Out, especially if they go back to five. (Did they ever announce anything definitive for the upcoming ceremony?) I'm at a loss with The Hateful Eight. Original Screenplay looks crowded, and Bridge of Spies' poster doesn't have any kind of "based-on" credit, so it might go original like Foxcatcher did. Maybe Tarantino misses this time. Elle Fanning seems like a stretch, but I like the way you predict!

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    1. I'm being stubborn with Youth, I know, but I have a feeling that it will connect with American audiences and snag some serious support, especially from the actors since the veterans involved are getting raves. I nearly predicted Fonda, to be honest.

      Silence, if it is released this year, is the one I predict to go all the way unless the Suffragette movement becomes too big to ignore.

      I have felt all year that The Hateful Eight was going to be a no-hitter here, and nothing has happened to change my mind.

      I don't know what to do with Bridge of Spies and the screenplay placement.

      Fanning is my wild-card, rash decision pick. That role is BAIT, and the release date (October) is prime for a push, and she's been so diverse in her film selections that this could be seen as a way to reward her for stretching herself...and we know she can pull this off, so I'm really pulling for her.

      I also hate that Demolition was my #1 push back in April...and now I have it predicted for absolutely nothing.

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  8. I have Alicia Vikander in my predictions for The Danish Girl, but in Supporting. While I am sure she is great in that, in a better world, she'd be a legitimate contender for her work in Ex Machina. I also wanted to put Emily Blunt on my Best Actress predictions for Sicario mainly because I want her to finally join the Oscar club. But as of now, she looks like a dark horse.

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    1. Vikander could certainly go Supporting, but from what I've heard, the role is VERY big and showy and certainly a co-lead if not more the lead than Redmayne. I believe the story is told through her eyes, but that could have all changed during filmming.

      Blunt could certainly pop up. I have her in my Top 10 at the moment. It really depends on how the end of year performances do and how well Sicario performs overall.

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    2. Yeah. So far, I'm noticing a trend of potential category fraud in the Supporting Actress category with actresses that are apparent co-leads (Alicia Vikander, Ellen Page, Rooney Mara, etc.) being in the conversation for that category.

      One thing's for sure, though. If Vikander is more of a lead in Danish Girl, there's no doubt Eddie Redmayne will still be campaigned for Best Actor since his role is pretty flashy.

      Crossing my fingers for Leo or Fassy to have a solid run in that category!!

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    3. Oh, Redmayne's Oscar nomination for Lead Actor is sealed. He's in, and could win.

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    4. If that's the case, then lets cross our fingers he doesn't get as hungry this time around. I have my doubts that he won't campaign on the same level as before, but I'll try and be optimistic.

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    5. Oh, I have a STRONG feeling he'll be even worse.

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  9. I think most of the films you mentioned are likely to get nominated that said, I'd just like to mention some stuff that I think will get nominated as well.

    - I think Tom Hardy might get nominated for both Best Actor and Supporting Actor. His dual roles in Legend scream Oscar nomination

    - Son of Saul, which vowed everyone at Cannes. I think it will pick up more than a foreign language film nomination and might be in the hunt for a cinematography nom as well.

    - I think the Hateful Eight is going to pull out a number of nominations including Best Picture, Screenplay, possibly direction, cinematography , Best Supporting Actor (Kurt Russell), Best Supporting Actress ( Jeniffer Jason Leigh), Editing (if its not too long)

    - Michael Fassbender could get nominated for Best Actor for either Steve Jobs or Macbeth, both look like oscar heavyweights and seem to boast an oscar-worthy performance from Fassbender. Also, Seth Rogen (maybe) for Best Supporting Actor in Steve Jobs, this movie may be to him what Moneyball was to Jonah Hill.

    - I think The Force Awakens could get nominated for B.P along with all the technical nominations.

    - I'm gunning for Jason Segel for Best Supporting Actor for End of A Tour, it looks like a really transformative performance but it's still a long-shot.

    - Ramin Bahrani for a Best Original Screenplay nomination for 99 Homes but that too looks like a long-shot

    - Ridley Scott's The Martian for the technical awards at least.

    - Johnny Depp (possibly) for Best Actor for Black Mass, all though I'd rather see anyone else get nominated in his place.

    - I don't think Youth will not connect with Academy voters that much mainly because it's too artsy for the Academy. The acting nominations for Caine and Keitel seem like a sure bet, though

    - Dheepan (possibly) for Best Foreign Film

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    1. * I don't think Youth will connect with Academy voters that much mainly because I think it's too artsy for the Academy. The acting nominations for Caine and Keitel seem like a sure bet, though

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    2. Some good points raised. My updates are scheduled to start posting tomorrow. I think you may be onto a few things...but we'll see! It's still early yet.

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    3. Oh, and as far as Youth is concerned...I haven't seen it yet, but from the reviews and word out of Cannes...I don't think it's too artsy...but I could be wrong.

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    4. I am excited for it. Loved Paolo Sorrentino's previous film, The Great Beauty

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