Thursday, April 2, 2015

A Fistful of Films and The Cinematic Spectacle predict the Oscar WINNERS!


We started with predicting the nominees, but we're obviously foolish because Josh and I have decided to, once again, attempt predicting the winners.  Yes, we did this last year as well, and guess what; we bombed!  Neither of our Best Picture or Best Director predicted winners were even nominated, and out of all categories predicted the only correct prediction was the most obvious, Visual Effects (although we both did predict that Desplat would win, we just predicted the wrong film).  So, why bother with it this year?

Because it's fun!


Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Yes, both Josh and I have discussed this and come to the conclusion that Bridge of Spies feels like the early favorite.  This probably means that it'll be snubbed everywhere, but whatever.  Spielberg and Hanks together again for a Cold War drama sounds ubber Oscar baity, and in a field of films that look great but also feel un-Oscary, this is at least a safe bet, for now.

Director
Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies
If the film takes top honors, you better believe that Spielberg is going to snatch his third directing Oscar.  He probably came very close in 2012, so it's not too far fetched to think that he could waltz away with another trophy, considering that he's probably the most respected and popular American director in the world.

Film Editing
Spectre
We're pretty in sync this year with what we think will win, at least in the major categories, and something tells me that Spectre could be a big hit with AMPAS, especially in the technical categories.  Skyfall was an unexpected success, and this should be a big money-maker, so the prestige combined with ticket sales could make this a bigger Oscar player than it's predecessors. 

Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Once again, we're in agreement.  This one is a tad tricky, as Haynes is not really an Oscar magnet, but the film is everything Oscar loves (period drama/political commentary/progressiveness/Cate Blanchett) and so we see this playing into their hands rather well.

Original Screenplay
Demolition vs. Joy
Here is our first differing prediction.  Josh is leaning towards Oscar finally favoring David O. Russell, rewarding him with an Oscar for his screenplay, and I'm leaning towards Bryan Sipe snagging the win for penning Jean-Marc Vallee's latest offering.  Vallee is on a real hotstreak with Oscar, and this looks keen for recognition. 

Supporting Actress
Naomi Watts/Demolition
We think it's time.  It's about damn time!  This role has been likened to the one that won an Oscar for Jennifer Lawrence.  I'll take it.  A depressed woman who smokes weed and deals with some heavy shit who winds up making a serious difference in Jake Gyllenhaal's life.  Yeah, I'll take it!

Supporting Actor
Jude Law/Genius
We think it's time.  It's damn time!  Hopefully this won't turn out like Edward Norton's career comeback, you know, where he loses the Oscar.  Law is in a biopic, with a real baity character, showy and he's so damn likable!  I'll take it!

Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Everyone in the world thinks it's time, but does AMPAS.  He's fortunate that Inarritu is helming this, as he's on a hotstreak right now, but will AMPAS feel forced into rewarding Eddie Redmayne once again?

Lead Actress
Carey Mulligan/Suffragette vs. Cate Blanchett/Carol
At this present moment, I think Josh and I foresee a race between these two, and we're both leaning towards a different victor.  I personally see Suffragette playing better with Oscar than Josh does, and Mulligan's character is against type for her (abrasive, headstrong) and she anchors the film, and is prime age to snatch the prize.

Costume Design
Far From the Madding Crowd vs. Pan
I predicted it last year, and I will continue to predict it.  Oscar loves a period drama, and they love those detailed period clothing.  From what I gather in stills and early ink, Far From the Madding Crowd doesn't disappoint there.  Josh is leaning towards the fantastical stylings of Pan to snag the Oscar.

Cinematography
Bridge of Spies vs. The Revenant
Josh is putting faith in Lubezki's hotstreak to snag him a third Oscar, but three in a row seems like a stretch to me, so I'm leaning towards our predicted BP to take this particular tech.  Kaminski has had a lot of success with Spielberg, and he's won both times Spielberg's films have been in contention for the win ('93 and '98) so there is a good chance he'll win here if Bridge of Spies goes all the way.

Production Design
Far From the Madding Crowd vs. Pan
Much like in Costume Design, we are going traditional period vs. fantasy!  I wish I had more faith in Pan.

Makeup & Hairstyling
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens vs. The Danish Girl
Here, the tables are reversed and I'm going with fantasy (well, technically Sci-Fi) and Josh is sticking with the period drama!

Visual Effects
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
My question is, will this be the only category we correctly predict this far out?  It was for last year, and this category seems to be the easiest to peg so far out, considering that there is usually that one film that is toted all year long as the one to define the category, and it doesn't fail to win.  I think this is a no-brainer at this point.

Sound Editing & Mixing
Spectre vs. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
So, we aren't predicting splits this year, but we aren't predicting the same film either.  I am banking on Spectre snagging both of these Sound wins, while Josh is leaning towards Star Wars to swoop in and take both.

Original Score
Thomas Newman/Bridge of Spies
Last year is was Desplat's year.  He was probably the most beloved composer to not have an Oscar, and he had a killer year with multiple film scores, two of which happened to be in Oscar adored movies.  Newman is next in line.  With 12 nominations and no wins, this could be his time, and if Bridge of Spies is our winner, he could be as well!

Original Song
Something from Inside Out
We know there will be a song, and if this becomes the Animated Film of the year, it will most likely snag a win here.

Animated Film
Inside Out
This category can be tricky.  In the past couple years, the perceived Oscar frontrunner this far in advance has not been so lucky.  In fact, the past two years saw the early frontrunner not even nominated (Monsters University and LEGO Movie), but something tells me that this is Inside Out's and only Inside Out's.  Trailers can be deceiving, and early word is that this is a revelation of animation and emotional connection, and so with that in mind...we dare call it the Oscar frontrunner.  We dare.

18 comments:

  1. Leo should've won for Wolf of Wall Street, so this will be his "I'm sorry, here you go" Oscar. I shouldn't judge since I haven't seen the film, but that's how I feel now. ha

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    1. LOL...McConaughey's Oscar speech in all it's ridiculous 'what the fuck'ery was better than the whole of his Dallas Buyers Club performance.

      Poor Leo.

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  2. At this point, I feel really strongly that this will finally be DiCaprio's year as well. The seems fantastic without being overly baity (like with J. Edgar, etc). I think this will be his year. Other than that, at this point, I have no idea who will win anything else :P

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    1. I hope so, for his sake...like...he wants it so badly that I can feel the hurt every time he loses.

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  3. Interesting picks, hopefully you guys don't bomb again.

    I'm unusually intrigued by the Costume Design category this year. Cinderella, Far from the Madding Crowd and Crimson Peak already look like strong contenders.

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    1. I wrote off Crimson Peak...but I admit that that could have been a severe oversight.

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  4. So early:) I have a feeling you will be right about Naomi Watts and she is an excellent actress-same for Jude Law. I could see Di Caprio besting Law though. Time will tell.

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    1. In all honesty, as much as I like DiCaprio, he's the least important acting win for me. Law, Watts...even Mulligan are more important to me. It's about time for Law and Watts, for sure. Like...their resume, range and everything in between warrants it!

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  5. It is definitely time for DiCaprio to win an Oscar, if only to put an end to the rumors that he must have done something awful -- like sleep with the wife of someone on the Oscar committee -- to be snubbed so many times.

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    1. I think DiCaprio's main issue with Oscar is that he's never really been in contention to actually win. In 93, despite having a great breakout performance and a VERY baity character, he was up against Tommy Lee Jones in a BP nominated film who was co-lead and a beloved actor who was considered due. DiCaprio wasn't even really a contender. In 04 he was certainly runner-up, but no one was going to come close to beating out Foxx. In 06, once again, he was up against a juggernaut of a frontrunner...and he was also nominated for the wrong performance. I'd actually think he came closest to winning in 13, even though it was pretty clear that McConaughey wasn't going to lose. Still, he came out swinging and made a lot of progress towards the podium, just fell short in the end. He needs either that one role that is so undeniable that there is no question he'll win...or a year where there is no such thing and he can ride the 'due' factor to a win.

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  6. These are great fun. I can't see them handing Cate Blanchett that third Oscar yet. Every other performer who's won a third has had in the area of twenty years between the first and third, even Meryl. For Blanchett it's only been ten since The Aviator and with being a recent winner I'd really be shocked if she took it anytime soon, though I think she's one of the few who stands a good chance of being a three time winner at some point.

    Redmayne's chances are even more remote. Of the five back to back winners, Tracy and Luise Rainer's happened during an era when the studios had huge influence in making certain wins happen. Hepburn's happened because of so many factors...the second was a respect and sympathy award for her career longevity and Tracy's passing and the feeling her salad days were behind her. The third which of course could have easily not happened with that tie was because they were blown away by her in Lion in Winter and couldn't deny the greatness of her performance. The other two, Tom Hanks and Jason Robards, were performers with years and years of goodwill and career achievement behind them. Redmayne has none of that yet and I don't think the same shameless whoring out of himself will turn the trick two years in a row.

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    1. Redmayne has a chance to win again mainly because he has, without question, the baitiest performance of anyone in contention in pretty much any category; period. THAT is why he has a shot, and if the film is well received, they won't blink at handing him the win. We won't know it till we know it, but bait is bait and when bait is played right (or campaigned right) it usually prevails.

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  7. LOL, I wonder if we'll get only one prediction correct again. :P Prayer circle for your acting choices. DiCaprio, Mulligan, Law and Watts need an Oscar!

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  8. Imagine if Redmayne wins again? Oh God:D Demolition sounds awesome, really want to see that. BTW have you heard of the drama on The Revenant set? Hardy choking Inarittu or some shit?:lol:

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    1. LOL, yes! I read about that Hardy mess yesterday. Apparently, this isn't the first time he's gotten into brawls with co-stars. Supposedly he had altercations (verbal) with Charlize Theron on the set of Mad Max...and he did punch LaBeauf I think when they were filming Lawless...so it appears he's not that easy to get along with.

      Looks like he let all the 'modern day Marlon Brando' talk go to his head.

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    2. To be fair I did read Inarittu is a prick and Hardy is golden for punching LaBeauf in my book :D

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    3. Hardy punching LaBeauf is almost as awesome as Orlando Bloom punching Justin Beiber.

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