Wednesday, April 1, 2015

A Fistful of Films and The Cinematic Spectacle predict the Oscars!


For the past two years (three including this year), Josh over at The Cinematic Spectacle and myself have teamed up for our first official Oscar predictions of the year.  What better day to announce our first blind predictions than on April Fools day!  It's never too early to talk about Oscar, as all cinephiles know well enough, so let's just get on with it.

Last year we attempted to predict Foreign Film, but we're bypassing that category this year, as well as the shorts and Documentary, since at this point we don't even have a good idea of what is being released.

Let's do this!


Best Picture

Fisti
1) Bridge of Spies
2) Demolition
3) Carol
4) Inside Out
5) Suffragette
6) The Revenant
7) The Danish Girl
8) Joy
9) Brooklyn
10) Spectre

Josh
1) Carol
2) Joy
3) Bridge of Spies
4) The Revenant
5) The Danish Girl
6) Demolition
7) The Hateful Eight
8) Money Monster
9) Brooklyn
10) Steve Jobs

*These are ranked by presumed likeliness of a nomination, NOT what we predict will win.

So, Josh and I are in agreement about seven of the ten nominees that we are predicting.  There is a lot of Oscar bait going on this year (I mean, I guess we could say that about every year this far in advance) so it's trying to weigh out which ones will be Oscar failures and which ones Oscar will swoon all over.  We both have a lot of faith in Carol and Bridge of Spies, both ranking high for us here (and elsewhere), considering the pedigree behind the films.  I'm going out on a limb here, predicting not only a genre flick (Bond!) but also an animated film (Pixar!), and I have a lot more faith in the heavily female Suffragette than Josh does.

Director

Fisti
Sarah Gavron/Suffragette
Todd Haynes/Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/The Revenant
Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies
Jean-Marc Vallee/Demolition

Josh
Todd Haynes/Carol
Tom Hooper/The Danish Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/The Revenant
David O. Russell/Joy
Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies

We agree 3/5 here, but this is where you'll see some of the differences in our personal ideas of how the year will pan out.  Josh is placing faith in two Oscar regulars, O. Russell (who is on a real hot streak) and Hooper (who was arguably inches from a nom in 2012 and notoriously stole Fincher's Oscar back in 2010), while I'm placing bets for Gavron to carry her female driven biopic to Oscar love and Vallee (who is also on an Oscar hot streak, albeit in a different way) to finally get his due come Oscar time.  Both of us have faith in Haynes to breakthrough with his lesbian period film and Spielberg (duh) as well as Inarritu, fresh off his Oscar win, to get that afterglow nom.

Film Editing

Fisti
Bridge of Spies
Demolition
Joy
The Revenant
Spectre

Josh
Bridge of Spies
Joy
Money Maker
The Revenant
Spectre

We are 4/5 here, with the only difference in our lineups being Josh's faith in the George Clooney vehicle Money Maker (I have no faith in it) and my faith (arguably over-faith) in Demolition.  From what I've read, Demolition is going to be VERY showy, and Vallee has had success here with Oscar before, snagging an unexpected nom for Dallas Buyers Club.

Adapted Screenplay

Fisti
Beasts of No Nation
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Steve Jobs

Josh
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Steve Jobs

Again, we're almost completely in-sync, this time only differing with my waning yet gut confidence in Beasts of No Nation and Josh's very smart prediction of The Revenant.  It was honestly a gamble for me with which screenplay I was going to drop for Beasts of No Nation, a film that could strike if the marketing and distribution is strong, but that campaign is going to have to carry serious weight.  Still, I could see this being a film that snags a handful of noms, and here seems like a good shot considering the subject.

Original Screenplay

Fisti
Bridge of Spies
Demolition
Inside Out
Joy
Suffragette

Josh
Bridge of Lies
Demolition
The Hateful Eight
Joy
Money Monster

Here we match 3/5.  I am not sure exactly how I feel about Inside Out, since the trailers rub me all sorts of wrong, but early word is that the trailers do not represent the film well and that this could be a serious contender.  It apparently deals with childhood depression, which is a touchy subject, and if done right this could be a giant leap forward for the way that animated films are regarded.  I also have heard less that wonderful things about The Hateful Eight, so while Tarantino seems foolish to count out this early in the game, I'm gambling that his film just won't strike.

Supporting Actress

Fisti
Helena Bonham Carter/Suffragette
Diane Ladd/Joy
Rooney Mara/Carol
Meryl Streep/Suffragette
Naomi Watts/Demolition

Josh
Marion Cotillard/Macbeth
Diane Ladd/Joy
Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara/Carol
Naomi Watts/Demolition

Looks like my overconfidence in Suffragette is dividing us here.  Here's my reasoning, which could be very off, but the flack that Oscar got last year for being sexist could turn into an incentive to support a VERY female driven movie (in cast and subject and director) by lavishing it with attention, especially considering that it is very much in their wheelhouse (biopic/important themes/period drama) and will have a serious campaign (which has already begun) not to mention a flashy supporting role (albeit possible cameo) by the queen of Oscar, Meryl Streep.

That said, I still think that Naomi Watts is winning this in a walk, and I hope and pray that I'm right.

Supporting Actor

Fisti
Kyle Chandler/Carol
Robert De Niro/Joy
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy/The Revenant
Jude Law/Genius

Josh
George Clooney/Money Maker
Robert De Niro/Joy
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy/The Revenant
Jude Law/Genius

This is probably my most anticipated category because it looks so rich and I'm honestly excited about all of these performances.  We agree 4/5 here, with the only difference being my faith that Chandler's killer role will land him in the running and Josh is looking at Clooney to come back into the picture after a short absence.  That said, I think we're both most excited to see if Jude Law can take the reigns on an extremely baity character and snag an Oscar WIN out of it (dear baby Jesus, make this happen).

Lead Actor

Fisti
Bradley Cooper/Adam Jones
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Jake Gyllenhaal/Demolition
Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

Josh
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
Jake Gyllenhaal/Demolition
Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

Well, we agree on one thing, there doesn't look to be any room for a newbie this early out.  I'm sure that we're overlooking someone, and someone new entirely will pop out of nowhere, but right now the bait of the bait is secured by previous nominees.  My only question is, will Redmayne pull a Tom Hanks and actually win again, or will DiCaprio finally get his due?

Lead Actress

Fisti & Josh
Cate Blanchett/Carol
Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Carey Mulligan/Suffragette
Saoirse Ronan/Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Yes, you read that right...we agree 100% here!  This does look a tad young, and Meryl Streep is absent, but these roles look extremely baity and all of them have a lot going for them.  Blanchett is, well, Blanchett and her role is extremely baity.  Lawrence is, well, Lawrence, on a hot streak and is obviously a way for AMPAS to feel relevant.  Mulligan is a previous nominee, a former 'next big thing' who has spread her wings and has been in pursuit of her next nomination; and this role is all sorts of everything this category represents.  Ronan has stellar reviews and is in a film that could strike HUGE with AMPAS.  Vikander is said to have a very strong role, and she'll have Redmayne teaching her how to whore out herself for a nomination.

This sounds about as right as right can be this far out.

And then we have the technical categories, which have so many possible contenders that our predictions pretty much stop looking so similar from here on out!

Cinematography

Fisti
Bridge of Spies
Far From the Madding Crowd
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Spectre

Josh
Carol
Far From the Madding Crowd
The Hateful Eight
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant


Costume Design

Fisti
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Far From the Madding Crowd
Suffragette

Josh
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Macbeth
Pan

Makeup & Hairstyling

Fisti
The Danish Girl
Southpaw
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Josh
Cinderella 
The Danish Girl
Pan


Production Design

Fisti
Carol
The Danish Girl
Far From the Madding Crowd
Suffragette
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Josh
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Macbeth
Pan

Visual Effects

Fisti
The Avengers: Age of Ultron
Fantastic Four
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Josh
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Jurassic World
The Martian
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland


Sound Editing

Fisti
Bridge of Spies
In the Heart of the Sea
Spectre
Southpaw
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Josh
Jurassic World
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland

Sound Mixing

Fisti
Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Josh
Jurassic World
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland

Original Score

Fisti
Craig Armstrong/Far From the Madding Crowd
Carter Burwell/Carol
Michael Giancchino/Inside Out
Thomas Newman/Bridge of Spies
Thomas Newman/Spectre

Josh
Craig Armstrong/Far From the Madding Crowd
Carter Burwell/Carol
Michael Giancchino/Tomorrowland
Dario Marianelli/Pan
Thomas Newman/Bridge of Spies

Original Song

Fisti
The Early Years
Inside Out
Pan
Ricki and the Flash
Spectre

Josh
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Ricki and the Flash
Sing Street
Spectre

Animated Film

Fisti
The Case of Hana & Alice
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Little from the Fish Shop
The Little Prince

Josh
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Kung Fu Panda 3
The Little Prince
Minions

So, there we have it!  Here's to hoping we did better this year than last!  I want to thank Josh for once again doing this with me.  It's such great fun to partner up with another blogger for something special like this!  Good luck my friend!  

12 comments:

  1. Great lists. It's so hard to know this far out but some of these seem a sure thing, unless of course the films completely tank.

    I can't imagine Cate Blanchett missing on a nomination for the boringly titled Carol. I would love to see HBC in the running for supporting actress, just no Meryl Streep PLEASE!! Give the woman a year off. It would be great to see Kyle Chandler get recognized, such an under appreciated actor. Also hoping Gyllenhaal, who has been knocking it out of the park lately but always finishing out of the money finally gets a deserved nomination.

    I see the tech nominations for Madding Crowd, it's going to have to go a long way to improve on the cinematography of the original, but no acting noms? If nothing else I would think Michael Sheen's Boldwood would stand a chance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last year I was high on the Madding Crowd train, especially Sheen's chances, but this year I'm cooled a bit. I think that it will have to be a huge contender to manage nominations in the above the line categories, unless raves come it's way. I mean, the original was snubbed everywhere except for score, and it lost that too.

      Streep is always one to look out for, even when you don't want to accept it. She's already campaigning for the film, so I could see her getting a nom even though she's got a glorified cameo.

      Crossing all fingers for Gyllenhaal. He deserves it!

      Delete
    2. I think what hurt the original Madding Crowd, aside from its less that blockbuster box office, was the fact that it was competing in a year that saw Bonnie & Clyde, The Graduate, In the Heat of the Night and others break all kinds of filming concepts. It was seen as old fashioned film making despite it's beauty and quality.

      The new one falls into that Merchant/Ivory literary adaptation category the academy loves so much. The May release date though may harm it more than anything else, however it's the only one of its type slated for release at that time which could help it become an alternative choice.

      Streep talks the game of having more opportunities for women but then goes out and campaigns when she opens an envelope. At this point she HAS to realize that a nomination for her which is ridiculously easy to get is screwing another actress out of a nomination that could make a real difference in her career while it does nothing for hers.

      Delete
    3. I could see it playing big, but then again, Merchant/Ivory films haven't really garnered Oscar favor since the 90's...and that release date could make it pretty much a tech nominee and only a tech nominee...but I hope I'm wrong, and it looks beautiful.

      Delete
  2. Nothing like starting early!:) I have not heard of these movies but I know you watch for all the early buzz. Streep could be sitting on a sofa scratching herself and she would get an Oscar nom. I was going to ask how you did last year with the actual Oscars but it seems you were off. When I get time I will head to your list last year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I compared the actual nominations with my early bird predictions here:

      http://afistfuloffilms.blogspot.com/2015/01/2014-oscar-nominations-and-thoughts.html

      I was pretty off...but this far in advance, it's all blind luck so you never know!

      Delete
  3. Are you ready for the return of Redmayne's thirst? lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm prepared this year, so it won't be so hard to swallow.

      Delete
  4. You dudes are hard core. The next Oscars are the furthest thing from my mind. Fun to see what you guys think way in advance, though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL, I'm already thinking about Oscar, circa 2016!

      Delete
  5. Thanks man! Right back at ya! :)

    I think you might be right about Suffragette, but it doesn't seem like a film (on paper at least) that will SLAY. Still, you could be on to something.

    I'd take another Redmayne win if it means Law gets an Oscar! Fingers crossed!

    I'm surprised you left out films like Pan and Tomorrowland and included something like Southpaw, but I love that we have some variety here. Good luck man!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just have this feeling that if Suffragette registers, it'll show up big...but I could see my thinking being far off and I could honestly see it completely ignored...so there's that.

      It's a gamble...always a gamble.

      I have a hard time seeing Tomorrowland in particular being anything Oscar related. It's very rare that a clearly family oriented film gets Oscar treatment...even in Visual Effects...which seem to favor more adult (or at least older skewed) film-fare. Pan is tricky because, as a HUGE fan of the director and source, I want this to be the best movie of the year...but I'm cautious. If it winds up being lauded...it will probably make it in a lot of places...but that's only if...and if it's perceived as a missed opportunity or solely a film for children, it will probably get snubbed everywhere.

      I only went with Southpaw because of the Weinstein angle...and the fact that it's a boxing movie and every still is a beat-to-hell Gyllenhaal...and that could be an easy Makeup nominee.

      Delete