Sunday, February 22, 2015

Final 'to the wire' Oscar WINNER Predictions!


Alright, so the realization that I'm not going to be able to watch The Oscars live tonight due to family obligations is starting to set in and make me rather...irritated, but whatever.  I've been holding off on posting my final winners predictions because I really needed to mull this stuff over.  As you guys are all aware, I've kept pretty close track on the way that the awards all season have played out on my Awards Tally Page, and so it's time to see if this has paid off at all.

So let's look at each category and see what the crystal ball has to say.


Best Picture

All season it has looked like this was going to go to Boyhood.  The critics rallied, it appeared at the top of every single Top Ten and it won pretty much everything...and then the guilds happened, it lost all of them and Birdman emerged as a real threat.  One could say that the number of actual wins Boyhood has taken is enough to keep it the frontrunner, but SAG, PGA and DGA is a VERY powerful combo, causing me to think that backlash against Boyhood and the overall actorly feel of Birdman may be a sign of things to come.

Final Prediction:  Birdman

Director

Much like Best Picture, this is coming down to two names, Linklater and Inarritu.  No one else has a shot.  Many are predicting a split, with Birdman taking picture and Linklater winning here, but I don't think that makes much sense.  Whenever we see a split, it's usually when two films are really well liked, but one is seen as a more artistic feature and the other is seen as somewhat...conventional.  Both of these films rely so much on the direction that I feel like a vote for the film is going to equal a vote for the director, so whoever wins one is winning the other, IMHO.

Final Prediction:  Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu

Film Editing

I'm at a slight crossroads here.  Boyhood has snagged a few wins here (surprisingly, Birdman, which may have won even more overall, was snubbed from AMPAS) and usually the BP frontrunner does well here, but Whiplash just won at BAFTA and Spirits and is seen as a showier work overall, and showy does well here.  Still, I feel like if Birdman is going to take top honors, they're going to want to reward Boyhood for putting up a good fight, and while it isn't remotely engaging, they can justify a win here due to the nature of the filming.  It's a really tough call, but I'm going with showy, considering Boyhood's hilarious fall from grace.

Final Prediction:  Whiplash

Adapted Screenplay

You'd think that keeping track of the way that the awards are doled out would mean something, but when the one film that wins everything is snubbed, what does it mean?  Gone Girl being absent here leaves a space for a screenplay deemed 'lesser' by most to snag the win, and despite the love for Whiplash, I'm betting on the Weinstein backed The Imitation Game (which also just won WGA) to sweep in for the win here.

Final Prediction:  The Imitation Game


Original Screenplay

This is clearly a two-pony race right now, and this is, most likely, going to come down to a handful of votes.  The Grand Budapest Hotel has been raking in the wins, and so winning here makes perfect sense, and yet, if Birdman is going to take BP, wouldn't a win here make sense?  My only reason for questioning it's success here is the amount of writers on this screenplay, and a lot of times the more writers, the less a chance of winning.  Besides, Wes doesn't have a chance to win anywhere else, and his recent combo of WGA (Birdman was ineligible) and BAFTA may be too much to overcome.  This is such a gamble, to the point where I'm going against my gut and predicting...

Final Prediction: Birdman

Lead Actor

I know, it looks like this is over.  Eddie 'suck ass' Redmayne has snatched up SAG, BAFTA and the Globe and poor Michael Keaton has been sitting patiently in his seat, waiting for his chance to give one of his articulate, passionate and lovable speeches.  Listen, logic be damned, Keaton's run this award's season is giving me hope, and his film is poised to have a major win-streak with Oscar, so I'm sticking with him, regardless of the 'writing on the wall'.

Final Prediction: Michael Keaton

Lead Actress

We don't even need to talk about this one, right?

Final Prediction: Julianne Moore

Supporting Actor

We don't need to talk about this one either.

Final Prediction: J.K. Simmons

Supporting Actress

Unfortunately, we don't need to talk about this one either.

Final Prediction: Patricia Arquette

Costume Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel is poised to pretty much take all of these techs.  I mean, it's the only nominee that's actually won anything, and it's won almost everything it's been up for, including BAFTA.

Final Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel


Cinematography

I'm going to say that Birdman has this in the bag, but strange things can and do happen in this category.  Still...

Final Prediction: Birdman


Art Direction/Production Design

Yeah...

Final Prediction:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Makeup & Hairstyling

This is completely wide open.  The Grand Budapest Hotel could take this in a technical sweep, but Foxcatcher has that whole 'fake face' thing working for it, and Guardians of the Galaxy is totally deserving and has technically won the most.  Still...

Final Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Visual Effects

This should have been a no-brainer, but for the first time in quite some time, this is actually a heated race, and with none of these contenders a BP nominee, the race seems to be wide open.  Still, despite a race, I feel like the final victor is going to be the one we expected all along.  It's the most widely seen, the most widely talked about and it's one of the only ones here that is actually nominated for anything else, so Nolan's team wins again.

Final Prediction: Interstellar


Sound Editing

From what I've been told, MPSE mostly correlates to the Editing category, and American Sniper, Unbroken and Birdman took those (for effects, dialog and music respectively) and so with Unbroken not really a contender (let's be honest here), this is a two-pony race with a flip of the coin victor. Something tells me that the intensity of the action moments are going to push one of these ahead of the other.

Final Prediction: American Sniper

Sound Mixing

Birdman took CAS, which is a big deal.  Whiplash took BAFTA.  This is a tough one, but I'm thinking that showy sound could snag the win.

Final Prediction: Whiplash


Score

Earlier this year, I was very bullish on Alexandre Desplat FINALLY winning his Oscar.  The film I was convinced he'd win for was Unbroken.  He wasn't even nominated for that film, but he was nominated for two other films, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game.  I don't think Desplat is winning the Oscar.  He could, and most likely it would be for The Grand Budapest Hotel, but my money is on a newby for the win this year.

Final Prediction: Johann Johannsson for The Theory of Everything


Original Song

I think that this is where Selma gets that pity win, although it's not really a pity win since the song is rather incredible.

Final Prediction: Glory from Selma


Foreign Film

Logic would say that Ida has this in the bag, but I hate to feel like Oscar is really going to reward that crap.  Ah, who am I kidding?

Final Prediction: Ida


Animated Film

This, for me, feels a lot like last year's Foreign Film race, when all year Blue is the Warmest Color was winning everything but it was ineligible for the Oscar and so we were trying to wrack our brains with who was going to actually win the Oscar.  The writing was on the wall for the eventual Oscar winner when it snagged that Globe win, and this year How to Train Your Dragon 2 took that one.  Big Hero 6 needed to make a bigger splash in order to snag another win for Disney, and The Tale of Princess Kaguya just feels so little talked about.  It would be my choice for a spoiler, but unfortunately this looks to be headed to a big bowl of 'meh'.

Final Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2


Documentary

This category can have HUGE shocks, but CITIZENFOUR hasn't had a single trip up on its way to the Oscar win, and I don't see one in sight.

Final Prediction: CITIZENFOUR


Animated Short Film

Word on the street is that The Dam Keeper is being talked about, a lot, but Feast just won the Annie, and it's so damn likable...and it would be a way to reward Disney for having another great year.

Final Prediction: Feast


Live Action Short Film

I haven't seen any of these.  Last year I watched them all and it messed up my predictions because I ignored all 'talk' and just went with my personal preference, and then the shitty one won and I had predicted WAY wrong, so I'm listening to talk, and apparently it sounds like it's between two films; Boogaloo and Graham and The Phone Call.  I'm hedging my bets with the one that just won the BAFTA.

Final Prediction: Boogaloo and Graham


Non-Fiction Short Film

Again, I've seen none of these, but I'm thinking that the love showered on American Sniper and all the talk continuing about the Chris Kyle murder (the trial is taking place about 2 hours from my house, so I hear about this every day) will propel a certain short with a similar theme to the winners circle.

Final Prediction: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

My Prediction Totals


Birdman (5)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (3)
Whiplash (3)

Boyhood (1)
American Sniper (1)
The Imitation Game (1)
The Theory of Everything (1)
Selma (1)
Interstellar (1)
Still Alice (1)
Ida (1)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (1)
CITIZENFOUR (1)
Feast (1)
Boogaloo and Graham (1)
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (1)

Well, that's it.  You'll find out how I did before I will, so don't spoil it for me (unless I nailed it, then you can Tweet me the good news).

8 comments:

  1. Thanks for continuing to go HARD all through awards season. I've said it before, but it bears repeating...you are a beast!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm pulling for Keaton too although I have nothing against Redmayne. The one that burns me is Arquette for a performance that any actress could have given and many a damn sight better. And by her win she'll be offered more roles to bored us to death with. Yeesh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Her speeches are just...insufferable. Thankfully, she'll never be nominated for anything ever again, so we won't have to worry about this happening again.

      Delete
  3. OK Watched The Theory about Everything last night and it was good. He is no Daniel Day Lewis! His smarminess came through in the film. I also kept think he was going to say ..."MOLE!" He really looks like a young Austin Powers to me. Anyway I hope Grand Budapest takes it for best score-sounds most original to me. Selma will take best song but I really did like the Glen Campbell song. I feel almost like if one doesn't for Selma you will be labelled racist and I don't like feeling manipulated...besides I don't care for rap. I think Boyhood will, unfortunately, win for best picture and director and best supporting actress...I will also dance up a storm if it doesn't win. I hope Michael Keaton wins. I voted for JK Simmons and Julianne Moore too. I went with The Boxtrolls because I don't want Dragon to win. I watched the trailor and it seems teachy preachy to me. I picked Budapest for costumes, cinematography, production design and score. I picked Citizenfour also and crisis Hotline for the same reason you mentioned. Editing I picked Boyhood. Ida for Foreign film and gaurdians for make-up and visual effects. Feast and Boogalo I also picked since I heard many things about Feast and Bugallo just won the BAFTA.Sound awards-Birdman on both but who knows. Adapted screenplay I picked Whiplash because of the backlash:) and Birdman for original. Oh let's see how wrong I am:) I am going to enjoy the event

    ReplyDelete
  4. Great job, and good luck! Hope you're right about Keaton, and I'll be thrilled to be wrong on my prediction if he wins. Glad to see you've also gone for Birdman in Screenplay. I wonder if Budapest will only be a tech juggernaut, which is why I went for Inarritu's film instead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 20/24 ain't bad...but I was really hoping to nail it! Poor Keaton!

      Delete