So, last night SAG predicted the Oscars, and we saw a slight surprise and a possible turn of events and so let's just get right into talking about these wins.
|Supporting Actress ~ Patricia Arquette|
There isn't a whole lot to say about what this win means for her with regards to an Oscar, because we've known she was going to win that undeserved Oscar for months now, but a word of advice, when you actually do win the Oscar, don't fake tears and surprise like you did last night, and DON'T read from a piece of paper. You looked a mess and felt boring as fuck. Spice it up a little. Give a better speech than you did a performance, please.
|Supporting Actor ~ J.K. Simmons|
Much like Arquette, we've known this was coming for months and so we're used to it, and he's used to it, so he didn't fake anything; he just got up there, said what he had to say about appreciating every actor that 'supported' his film, made a joke about sleeping with the director (his wife is a director) and then walked off stage; like a pro.
|Lead Actress ~ Julianne Moore|
Despite lack of critics' wins, this was inevitable; it was Moore's year and we all knew it. It's hard to be mad at this, too, because despite the fact that this may not be her finest performance (I haven't seen it, so I can't judge) and despite the fact that she has some stiff competition for Oscar (Pike is amazing, and Cotillard is always amazing), Moore has been doing this for so long and is due. She deserves to have 'Academy Award Winner' in front of her name. Actors rarely win for their best performance. It's all about politics and timing, and the timing is right for her. Beautiful speech too, so yay for her.
|Lead Actor ~ Eddie Redmayne|
Now, this is where we can start trying to figure out what this means for an Oscar, because this race is, at the moment, wide open. I thought for a certainty that Keaton had this one in the bag. He seemed to fit the SAG mold rather well, but this turn of events has me worried for his Oscar chances (why am I worried? I haven't seen the film and I don't generally care for him as an actor...). Redmayne has the BAFTA, we can all assume, and so that will mean that Redmayne will have BAFTA, SAG and Globe walking into Oscar night, while Keaton has a Globe, two BFCA's and the bulk of the critics' wins. And then there is Cooper, who's film is gaining a LOT of traction. It's, in all honesty, a three way race that I feel is going to come down to a photo finish.
I'm still betting on Keaton, because...
|Ensemble ~ Birdman|
This film is making a lot of ground in an attempt to dethrone Boyhood, and it could possibly pull it off. With PGA and now SAG wins under it's belt, it's poised to make a mad dash for Oscar glory, and if that's the case, Keaton stands a good chance of benefiting from the support. Does an ensemble win mean an Oscar Best Picture win? No. Look at films like The Help (which wasn't anywhere near a Best Picture win), but then again, this is starting to remind me a little of The King's Speech. Remember when everyone was pretty certain The Social Network was going to sweep through to Oscar, and it won the Globe and BFCA...and then The King's Speech, in one weekend, took PGA, DGA and SAG. Let's see what happens with the Director's Guild...