Friday, January 9, 2015

BAFTA nominations (and some Oscar thoughts)...


We're almost there, to Oscar nomination morning.  BAFTA nominations mark the near close of the pre-Oscar awards season and one of the last notches in every potential nominees belt, so we're almost ready to post our final Oscar predictions (which I'll post next Wednesday).  We only have CAS and DGA left to announce (on Tuesday) and then we'll pretty much have everything we need to pretend like we know what Oscar is going to nominate.

LOL.

So, let's take a look at the BAFTA nominations and see what we can pull from these to better understand (or further complicate) what Oscar is going to go nuts over come Thursday morning.


Best Film
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

These five are more and more looking like our top five contenders for Oscar's Best Picture race, with Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel our clear top three (they've hit everywhere).  The Selma snub here hurts it, but how much I'm not sure.  Word was that it didn't screen till very late, so maybe that is why it missed.  The Mr. Turner snub is even more damning.  I'd say, at this point, Mr. Turner won't land anywhere but Cinematography with Oscar.

Best British Film
'71
The Imitation Game
Paddington
Pride
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin

Yeah, Mr. Turner is dead.  Now I really want to see Paddington.  Like, is it really...that good?

Director
Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damian Chazelle/Whiplash
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Birdman
Richard Linklater/Boyhood
James Marsh/The Theory of Everything

My biggest shock here is seeing Marsh in over Tyldum.  I think both will miss at Oscar at this point.  There is just no real passion for THEM despite passion for their films.  I actually think that we could be underestimating Chazelle at this point.  With Anderson, Inarritu and Linklater locked in, and DuVernay and Fincher far from sure bets (even though they are likely), I'd say there is room for someone like Chazelle, who has serious passion for his film in ALL areas, to pop up Zeitlin style.  We'll see how DGA goes next week, but if he shows up (which I'm currently NOT predicting), then I'd say he's a lock for Oscar!

Film Editing
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

The biggest shock here is the omission of Boyhood, which looks poised to win the Oscar.  I'd say that four of these repeat, with Boyhood getting in over Nightcrawler...but I also wonder if Gone Girl will show up here.

Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Paddington
The Theory of Everything

My only real questionmark here is whether or not Whiplash will make it in.  I'm worried that it won't.  I'm pretty sure that the other four here are locked in (Paddington is not eligible), and so it's down to Inherent Vice, Wild or Whiplash for Oscar's last spot.

Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Whiplash

With Whiplash out of the equation, I'm more and more thinking that Nightcrawler could show up here, and like, a week ago I was kind of convinced that it was going to get snubbed everyone with Oscar.

Lead Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything

A month ago, I wouldn't have even entertained this idea, but I kind of think that Fiennes is not only happening with Oscar, he's resting comfortably in fourth place.  I know that Gyllenhaal makes more sense, when you look at the wins/nominations, but The Grand Budapest Hotel has risen to Top Tier Best Picture contender, and Fiennes has been popping up everywhere as of late.  The surge in passion for his movie, I think, is enough to get him in.  AND I'M SO FREAKING HAPPY ABOUT IT!  I'm wondering what this means for Oyelowo.  Could he really miss?  I think the last spot is between him and Gyllenhaal, and while he feels like a more Oscary choice, Gyllenhaal has had a serious run here.

And then there is Cooper, who has a late surge of passion which could mean he gets in and both Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo are snubbed.

Lead Actress
Amy Adams/Big Eyes
Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon/Wild

I kind of have this awful feeling that this is our Oscar lineup.

Supporting Actor
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
Edward Norton/Birdman
Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons/Whiplash

Poor Tom Wilkinson.  Looks like his Oscar dreams (my Oscar dreams) are over.  Carell popping up here is odd (although all that talk earlier this year about how he should campaign Supporting because he could have won is starting to look like good advice), but it won't repeat with Oscar, due to his campaign.  I just don't know what to think of that final spot.  I'm starting to think that Duvall is happening.  I mean, Wilkinson NEEDED this, and Inherent Vice surged and then fizzled almost immediately.

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
Rene Russo/Nightcrawler
Imelda Staunton/Pride
Emma Stone/Birdman

I knew Staunton was coming, even if a recent viewing of Pride has me baffled as to why (like...no), but the biggest shock is Russo showing up over Streep.  I didn't see that coming.  Could Streep be Oscar snubbed?  LOL, no, but that fifth spot is looking like a weird race.  Swinton, Russo, Chastain...all of them have big nominations under their belt...and then you have Watts' weird SAG nomination.  Things are looking ripe for a shocking nom, and I'm wondering if it'll be in the form of Sienna Miller!

Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

This could be the Oscar lineup...

Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Interstellar
Mr. Turner

All of these have shots at Oscar noms, with Ida probably being the least likely.  I think that Unbroken takes the place of Ida at Oscar.  I wonder if The Theory of Everything shows up at Oscar as well, with maybe Interstellar missing.  It's not as strong as we once thought (I mean, it missed with ASC).

Production Design
Big Eyes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner

I think Big Eyes misses at the Oscars, but I'm not sure yet for what.

Make-Up and Hair
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Into the Woods
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

I think that The Grand Budapest Hotel, Guardians of the Galaxy and The Theory of Everything are our Oscar nominees, and I think The Grand Budapest Hotel is winning rather easily.

Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

I'm confident that the first four are happening with Oscar, but I'm still dubious on the last spot.

Sound
American Sniper
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

These are not as flashy as Oscar usually goes, with no big action flicks in the mix, so I don't think that these will repeat entirely, although I'm sure that one or two will, and I'm thinking that Birdman could pop up here, extending it's already bound to be large Oscar nomination tally.

Score
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin

I want to believe that Under the Skin is happening at Oscar, but I have no real faith that AMPAS will be that awesome.  I'm starting to think that Desplat will be double nominated, just not for the two I originally expected...or maybe he'll be...TRIPLE nominated?  He has to win at that point, right?

Foreign Film
Ida
Leviathan
The Lunchbox
Trash
Two Days, One Night

Oscar really effed up snubbing The Dardennes this year...  Ida will win this, I'm pretty sure.  Gross.

Animated Film
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
The LEGO Movie

Oscar's top three as well.  

Documentary
20 Feet From Stardom
20,000 Days on Earth
CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Virguna

LOL at that mediocre Oscar winner from last year popping up here, where it doesn't belong.  CITIZENFOUR will dominate this awards season, I'm pretty sure.

22 comments:

  1. Please not Amy Adams!! Why!? She doesn't stand a ghost of a chance to win, why waste the nomination on her when anyone else, especially Marion C, would be more rightly placed there. Ugh!

    It made me happy to not see Streep here for the same reason. I have nothing against her but give it a rest and share the wealth.

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    1. Adams is looking more and more like Streep-lite, that Actress who is nominated for lazy filler noms when the categories open with no real solidified passion.

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  2. I really want to believe Fiennes has a chance but I can't see it. I would be crazy happy if it does happen. Crossing my fingers on that one! I just love all the Wes Anderson love. Even if GBH wasn't my favourite of his, I'm just happy for all the crazy recognition this film is (kind of unexpectedly) getting!

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    1. I like The Grand Budapest Hotel, but have never loved it...still, this is like the greatest awards decision that Oscar could ever make, and the amount of snubs that his films have endured to get to the point where it looks like it'll get nominations across the board surely make me happy to see this happen! I wish that all of this had happened for Moonrise Kingdom, but I'm more than cool with this.

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  3. You're missing a nominee in Film Editing (The Theory of Everything), which is actually the 2nd time we've had a tie in this category this season (after the ACE Eddies)! This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting races.

    I'm already preparing myself to fail miserably with my nomination predictions because there are ssoooo many variables this year. Starting with Best Picture, which has 11 legit contenders and is stressing me out!

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    1. Fixed. I knew there were six in a category, and I thought it was Adapted Screenplay, but it wasn't and so I figured that I must have been mistaken. Each category seems to have one or two extra contenders that seem really legit!

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  4. Oh wow...Julianne Moore, Michael keaton-these are sure fire ones along with the usual. I can say best supporting actress to me sounds ho-hum for some reason along with best animated. I love Ralph Fiennes so i hope he gets a nod and I liked Budapest hotel but I have to see all the others-lol. Sad really. It is a must for me to see Ida now as i am laughing out loud every time you have to mention it. What is Citizenfour about? I have to look it up

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    1. LOL, I like that my Ida hatred makes you smile!

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  5. I'm still not behind Fiennes getting in on the Best Actor race. I think Gyllenhaal, Carrell, and Oyelowo have better shots, but who knows. I'm not sure Amy Adams will be the 5th spot in Best Actress either, but I'm sure we'll hear Jennifer Aniston crying in the distance if she is.

    And Boyhood does not deserve a screenplay nomination at all. There's nothing special about the story, just the way it was shot, which Linklater deserves to be acknowledged for in the Director category only. Let someone else have a shot at screenplay.

    Ugh. lol

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    1. Oyelowo, on paper, feels like a perfect Oscar fit, but his film is floundering SO MUCH that I'm starting to think that Selma is going to underperform with Oscar, and I think he'll be a casualty. Right now, I'm thinking Best Picture, Screenplay and Song are it for Selma...

      Eek!

      Boyhood deserves nothing.

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  6. Bummed about the Selma snub! It's an exceptional film, and I dare say a better and more affecting film than The Imitation Game. David Oyelowo is simply astounding! Can't believe he's not amongst the noms, at the very least they should honor his performance.

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    1. I love how everyone I talk to feels so differently about this film. When I finally do get to sit down and watch it, I'm not going to know what to expect.

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    2. I had no idea how I'd feel about it either to be honest, Drew. As I didn't grow up in the US, I actually didn't learn much about American history, including the whole Civil Rights Movement, so I'm not all that familiar about all the historical controversy. I judge the film as an art form and I think it's a compelling film, boasted by a splendid performance by Oyelowo.

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    3. I am looking forward to it!

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  7. If that is the Best Actress line-up... I'm fine w/ that just as long as Jennifer Aniston cries because all of that work to be taken seriously hasn't done shit. I'm happy Jake Gyllenhaal got a BAFTA nod. Yet, my favorite BAFTA moment will be the night Scarlett won Best Actress for Lost in Translation.

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    1. BAFTA will always have my respect for that moment.

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  8. Selma screened pretty early i thought, especially since it got that early push during AFI. Not surprised it was snubbed for BAFTA though. Far more surprised that Belle got snubbed. I guess I need to see Mr. Turner. Paddington looks awful to me, and i will not be fooled by the hype (i refuse lol). Theory of Everything is so unremarkable, but i can see it winning everything here. still don't care for Whiplash. I HATED the grand budapest hotel, but, again, i can see it winning everything here. Really happy The Lunchbox is getting some love. I have been wanting to see that one. Also happy about Ida, Boyhood, Arquette and Pike.

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    1. I thought I heard that it just recently (like towards the end of voting) made it's way over to Britain, but maybe I misheard.

      LOL, I love how you hated Budapest (I liked it, but didn't love it) but that you're rooting for the two films I LOATHED this season. Like, I can't think of two more undeserving BP/FF winners than Boyhood and Ida. I guess the theme of the Oscar's this year is 'pretentious films offering a blank slate of ideas presented in a format of mediocrity'. Sounds like an awesome time at the Oscars!

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  9. Oyelowo has no business even being in the talk, he just stood there, the entire movie. I'd laugh my ass off if he got nominated

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    1. I was working yesterday and the customer was sitting on his couch watching a bootleg copy of Selma, so I watched about half of it...and I must say that I was only taken by Wilkinson and Roth. Like...everyone else and really everything else left me kind of...bored. Granted, I was in and out of rooms and so I wasn't actually paying attention...but Roth and Wilkinson grabbed my attention, whereas no one else really did.

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  10. I'm starting to think Sniper will still be big at the Oscars, but without a Cooper nod. Nightcrawler looks very strong, and I'm currently predicting it gets in for a total of 9 Best Picture nominees - Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation, Nightcrawler, Selma, Theory, Whiplash.

    I do think Fiennes will just miss, in favor of Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo grabbing the last two spots, but I could change my mind. Predicting this year's Best Actor lineup is the hardest category I can remember in a while. I'm predicting BAFTA's Best Actress lineup, though I wonder if Aniston could get in after all. Or if Cotillard could still pull a shocker.

    Sticking to my guns on Wilkinson getting in, especially if Oscar voters watched the film. (They got it early, so it could do very well.) I've got Russo taking Chastain's spot, but who knows.

    Makeup is tough. I've got Guardians and Theory, but I can't decide whether to go with Budapest or Foxcatcher for the final spot.

    Yeah, I don't see Under the Skin getting a Score nod, but I do have Desplat getting three (!) nominations.

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    1. I'll have my final predictions up Wednesday (I hope). I'm still flirting with a few things (Wilkinson/American Sniper/Selma/Fiennes) and so I'm not ready to officially commit yet...

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