And the real deal is finally upon us, at least with regards to predicting Oscar. These guys are the kickoff to the televised awards season, and between these and tomorrow's Globe nominations, we'll start to see the real consensus form. With SAG though, because they screen earlier and vote earlier, they miss out on a lot of the end of year films, so there are some snubs (I saw the Selma snubs coming, due to weeks of word that no screeners were sent) that won't repeat in the coming weeks.
Let's have a look!
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
I'm very skeptical about The Grand Budapest Hotel being an Oscar nominee in BP, but it's looking likely due to all the love it's receiving as of late. Sure, these are ensemble awards, and so this could be one of those 'we love you because of your cast' mentions, but overall it's getting a lot of support and so it seems to be sneaking into the BP lineup. The remaining four are obviously locked up for Oscar's BP.
Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
With Oyelowo ripe for the snub, but definitely locked for the Oscar nom, this category was wide open for some surprises, and we got Gyllenhaal, who has been getting massive praise for his performance this year. Carell is apparently not dead, but this could very well be the 'James Gandolfini' nod of the year, considering that he's not getting love anywhere else. The other three are Oscar locks at this point, but I'm still uncertain of who will get that fifth nom.
Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
So, I'm wondering if we can declare Amy Adams officially dead? Like, I've been calling it for months, since the reviews for her film were so...low, but so many figured she'd be that lazy nom. Now we have Aniston in the mix, although if she doesn't repeat tomorrow then I have a feeling this will be her consolation prize of the year. I just can't see her making it in for a film so small. SAG loves their TV actors branching out, so this could be yet another Gandolfini-type nom here. The other four are headed to Oscar...but that fifth spot is hard to pin down.
Pray for Cotillard.
Robert Duvall/The Judge
Why does Duvall keep popping up? I had him predicted here, for the sheer fact that Wilkinson would be missing, but then I switched to Brolin, thinking he could be their random nom never to repeat. I'm scared that this is going to become some sort of thing, and I haven't even seen the film, but the outrage over him becoming a nominee this year by everyone who has seen it makes me believe that this nom is highly undeserving. Again, the remaining four are locked up...
Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods
Naomi Watts/St. Vincent
So, who saw Watts coming here? Like, I really, truly, wholly expected this to be Dern's place to show up, even if she didn't repeat anywhere else, but I'm ready to officially call her chances dead at this point. Stone is locked in now, thank you very much, and that fifth spot is probably Chastain's. But yay for Watts, even if from what I hear it should have been for Birdman.