Wednesday, December 10, 2014

SAG Nominees!

And the real deal is finally upon us, at least with regards to predicting Oscar.  These guys are the kickoff to the televised awards season, and between these and tomorrow's Globe nominations, we'll start to see the real consensus form.  With SAG though, because they screen earlier and vote earlier, they miss out on a lot of the end of year films, so there are some snubs (I saw the Selma snubs coming, due to weeks of word that no screeners were sent) that won't repeat in the coming weeks.

Let's have a look!

Ensemble
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

I'm very skeptical about The Grand Budapest Hotel being an Oscar nominee in BP, but it's looking likely due to all the love it's receiving as of late.  Sure, these are ensemble awards, and so this could be one of those 'we love you because of your cast' mentions, but overall it's getting a lot of support and so it seems to be sneaking into the BP lineup.  The remaining four are obviously locked up for Oscar's BP.

Lead Actor
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything

With Oyelowo ripe for the snub, but definitely locked for the Oscar nom, this category was wide open for some surprises, and we got Gyllenhaal, who has been getting massive praise for his performance this year.  Carell is apparently not dead, but this could very well be the 'James Gandolfini' nod of the year, considering that he's not getting love anywhere else.  The other three are Oscar locks at this point, but I'm still uncertain of who will get that fifth nom.

Lead Actress
Jennifer Aniston/Cake
Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon/Wild

So, I'm wondering if we can declare Amy Adams officially dead?  Like, I've been calling it for months, since the reviews for her film were so...low, but so many figured she'd be that lazy nom.  Now we have Aniston in the mix, although if she doesn't repeat tomorrow then I have a feeling this will be her consolation prize of the year.  I just can't see her making it in for a film so small.  SAG loves their TV actors branching out, so this could be yet another Gandolfini-type nom here.  The other four are headed to Oscar...but that fifth spot is hard to pin down.

Pray for Cotillard.

Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall/The Judge
Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
Edward Norton/Birdman
Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons/Whiplash

Why does Duvall keep popping up?  I had him predicted here, for the sheer fact that Wilkinson would be missing, but then I switched to Brolin, thinking he could be their random nom never to repeat.  I'm scared that this is going to become some sort of thing, and I haven't even seen the film, but the outrage over him becoming a nominee this year by everyone who has seen it makes me believe that this nom is highly undeserving.  Again, the remaining four are locked up...

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
Emma Stone/Birdman
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods
Naomi Watts/St. Vincent

So, who saw Watts coming here?  Like, I really, truly, wholly expected this to be Dern's place to show up, even if she didn't repeat anywhere else, but I'm ready to officially call her chances dead at this point.  Stone is locked in now, thank you very much, and that fifth spot is probably Chastain's.  But yay for Watts, even if from what I hear it should have been for Birdman.

6 comments:

  1. I don't think anyone saw Watts for St. Vincent. I didn't see that film, but she was great in Birdman. I'd like to see her get nominated for that.

    I'm just so happy Gyllenhaal and Pike got in. Please let them in for Oscars too!

    And yes, I think Adams is officially dead at this point.

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    1. I'm starting to wonder if Watts could be a surprise nominee in Supporting...for Birdman! The actors LOVE the film.

      Pike is happening. I'm really shocked anyone is nervous she may not. She's not winning, but really no one not named Moore is, so it doesn't matter. She's in.

      I don't think Gyllenhaal is though.

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  2. Yes...let the race begin! I swear Meryl Streep can cough up a furball & she would get nominated as I said this, probably more than once before:) I want to see the film but I have a feeling others are more deserving. Where is Bill Murray? I am one of the people that enjoyed Budapest Hotel thoroughly:)

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    1. Streep's continual awards domination is a shame...

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  3. I'm glad to see The Grand Budapest Hotel hanging around. My top 10 keeps changing, but that film keeps circling my top 5. I'd love for it to get a Best Picture nom.

    It's interesting that all of the acting categories appear to have four locks. I wonder if we could get a few surprises on Oscar nomination day.

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    1. I just wish that all this happened for Moonrise Kingdom instead.

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