Thursday, December 11, 2014

Golden Globe Nominees!


Yeah, I should have posted these forever ago, since, like, it's afternoon already, but I was busy wasting time watching Boyhood (more on that later) and so I didn't want to pause and post these...I figured I'd wait.

But now my mind is focused and we can discuss what this means for Oscar!


BEST PICTURE (drama)
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

A blow to Gone Girl and the nail in Unbroken's coffin, this was a major get for Foxcatcher.  It looks like our top five is starting to form firmly around six films, with Boyhood, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Birdman (which was eligible in Comedy/Musical category) and the aforementioned Gone Girl looking like the more serious players, but another film got a real boost today, which we'll talk about in a minute.

BEST PICTURE (comedy/musical)
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent

We can not bother to even talk about Pride or St. Vincent since the low profile aspect of the films and the reviews themselves (not ecstatic) are going to push them right out of the conversation, but Birdman is pretty much runner-up to Boyhood in everything right now, and Into the Woods has the pedigree and the buzz to be that 'filler BP nominee in an expanded field'.  But, let's talk about The Grand Budapest Hotel for a minute.  Wes Anderson has been around for years, doing his breed of quirk to massive praise and appeal and yet he is always shut out by Oscar.  In 2012, it looked like he may sneak his wildly successful Moonrise Kingdom into the BP category, only to have it receive a solitary Screenplay nom.  This year, his little engine that could is actually pulling in a lot more than random screenplay mentions.  HE'S getting mentions (oh, we'll talk about that in a minute too), so, it's looking really likely that The Grand Budapest Hotel is not only going to be an Oscar BP nominee, but it's NOT going to be mere filler!

DIRECTOR
Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
DuVernay/Selma
Fincher/Gone Girl
Inarritu/Birdman
Linklater/Boyhood

DuVernay, Inarritu and Linklater are locked up for Oscar, unless we get some crazy 'Oscars 2012' type fiasco and the sexism of AMPAS rears it's head and DuVernay is snubbed, but the backlash over that would be so big, I doubt they'd make that mistake.  After that, we have a lot of names in the pot.  I think we can safely say that Jolie, Nolan and Miller are out of it.  Some mention the possibility of Leigh showing up, but Mr. Turner would have to have a really large showing for that to happen, and with big names in more AMPAS ready films in contention, I don't think he has a shot.  This was a boost for Fincher but especially for Anderson, who could be a real contender.  We can't forget though that the Globes like big names, and Tyldum and Marsh are just not big enough to sway these guys, despite their films being serious Top Five contenders with Oscar.  I think only one of Fincher or Anderson makes it, since Tyldum is getting the Oscar nom.

SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game

This was pretty easy to predict (it was the only category I predicted 100%) and all five of these will translate into Oscar nominations in their respective categories.  The Oscar win, especially in Original Screenplay, is going to be a bloodbath.  

ANIMATED FILM
Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

The Globes never nominate foreign fare here, so the lack of The Tale of the Princess Kaguya is not surprising.  My best bet would be that The Book of Life falls of in favor of Kaguya at the Oscars.  Otherwise, the rest of these are looking Oscar strong...

FOREIGN FILM
Force Majeure
Gett: The Trial of Vivian Amselem
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerine 

Force Majeure and Ida are looking like the two biggest locks for Oscar, with Gett surprisingly coming up in the ranks.  I'm wondering if Leviathan maintains it's pull, but Two Days, One Night, Mommy and Wild Tales (all missing here) have very passionate supporters and could make a play with Oscar.  Still, a consensus is starting to form, and there are always odd snubs in this category...so we'll see how this all plays out.

ACTOR (drama)
Carell/Foxcatcher
Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler
Oyelowo/Selma
Redmayne/The Theory of Everything

With Keaton playing for the other team here (hehe), we had two open spots.  Right now, Gyllenhaal is making a real strong dash for that Oscar nom, but Carell (who we all wrote off last week) has had the same resurgence as Gyllenhaal and his character/film is far more likely to connect with Oscar voters, so right now I think he has the edge, even if it is ever so slight.

ACTOR (comedy/musical)
Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel
Keaton/Birdman
Murray/St. Vincent
Phoenix/Inherent Vice
Waltz/Big Eyes

Keaton is the only name to remember here, since he's the only one with a shot at the Oscar nom, but how sweet would it be if the love for Budapest caused Fiennes to become our surprise fifth Oscar nominee!

ACTRESS (drama)
Aniston/Cake
Jones/The Theory of Everything
Moore/Still Alice
Pike/Gone Girl
Witherspoon/Wild

Like, is Aniston really happening now?  We all wrote her off after those mediocre reviews came pouring in and she had to create a distribution company just so her film would see a theater and now all of a sudden she's snagging nominations from major award's bodies.  I'm kind of shocked, but more power to her.  Sad for Cotillard, who DESERVES this, but whatever.  This very well could be our Oscar lineup.

ACTRESS (comedy/musical)
Adams/Big Eyes
Blunt/Into the Woods
Mirren/The Hundred Foot Journey
Moore/Maps to the Stars
Wallis/Annie

Ew, what?  Adams is really the only name of note here, and MAYBE Harvey can push her despite her poor showing so far and the fact that no one likes her movie much, but I kind of doubt it.  The lack of Slate, Knightley and Byrne here is just gross, by the way.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Arquette/Boyhood
Chastain/A Most Violent Year
Knightley/The Imitation Game
Stone/Birdman
Streep/Into the Woods

This is pretty much what I've been predicting for the Oscar lineup for about a month now.  It just makes the most sense all the way around, and while Chastain has had a few hiccups having her film underseen, and Streep hasn't hit with any critics, this feels right.  Sadly, Arquette is going to rake in an Oscar for, you know, aging.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Duvall/The Judge
Hawke/Boyhood
Norton/Birdman
Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
Simmons/Whiplash

Someone make Duvall stop.  I think that Wilkinson will make that happen at Oscars, where Selma is poised to make it's biggest splash, nomination wise.  Also, this category has basically no fluctuation and just feels so flat, lifeless and uninspiring.  Simmons wins.  Let's move on.

SCORE
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

This could be it, although these rarely every match up 100% with Oscar.  I still think that Unbroken could make a play here, but these really are the only other contenders at this point.  Will Desplat finally win this year?

SONG
Big Eyes/Big Eyes
Glory/Selma
Mercy Is/Noah
Opportunity/Annie
Yellow Flicker Beat/The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1

Further complicating this category, Globes went for all sorts of stars here.  Lorde, Lorna, Legend...but will Oscar bite for all of these?  Doubt it.  I want nothing more than to see Mercy Is an Oscar nominee, but I fear that won't happen either.  LOL at Coldplay getting shut out here!  This category is a mess.  And, like, Begin Again shut out?  Where is Everything is Awesome?  What kind of fuckery?

18 comments:

  1. The songs nominations are crap. No Everything is Awesome.... fuck this! It goes to show that the Golden Globes are crap. They'll give an award to Madonna for a shitty song from a shitty movie that she directed that no one liked.

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    1. LOL, such vitriol! Overall, these are still rather respectable nominations, despite some hiccups.

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  2. I agree with thevoid99: the songs nomination is lame. I'm fucking expecting something from Begin Again, but it turns out zero for Begin Again. Will it happen in Oscar? No hope.

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    1. I wouldn't worry too much, the song that wins the Globe rarely EVER wins the Oscar...like EVER. I mean, Let it Go even lost the Globe to that horrid U2 song.

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  3. I'm not sure which category is more insulting to me, Best Song or Best Actress in a Comedy. What is that shit? And I know we all love Meryl, but I doubt she's Oscar worthy in Into The Woods. Come one, let Carrie Coon have a nomination for Gone Girl instead. Meryl's had enough.

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    1. Best Song, despite not having the two Oscar frontrunners, really isn't all that insulting. I mean, Mercy Is is better than both the Oscar favorites, to be honest, and the rest are respectable songs in films that feel like Globes films. They love big names! Sia, Lorde, Lana, John Legend...those are big names. It's just a really exceptional year in this category.

      At least there's no U2!

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  4. The nominations are insane. If I'd expect Unbroken anywhere it's here, they really must side with Aniston in the whole Pitt triangle thing :)

    Also....you were predicting Woodley, weren't you?:D

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    1. Yes, I was...and I'll defend that reasoning till the end, because to anyone following the race, she was the only realistic (or at least the most realistic) option for about two months time.

      We had Moore, Jones, Pike and Witherspoon locked up and a wide open fifth spot with no one that made sense. Streep was going supporting, and besides, she was playing a witch. Cotillard is an eternal snubee, she's in a foreign film AND she wasn't going to campaign. Swank was in a film that, at that time, NO ONE was talking about. Blunt wasn't getting any sort of stand out reviews. Mirren was in...well...that movie. And, be realistic, until SAG...absolutely NO ONE was taking Aniston seriously. TIFF brought mediocre reviews (it was likened to a Lifetime movie) and despite being a huge star, she just doesn't feel like an Oscar nominee. Woodley feels more like an Oscar nominee, considering that she is practically JLaw 2.0.

      So yes, despite her being an a glorified teen movie, she had flat out RAVES for her performance, was going to campaign, and just felt like the only real option.

      Obviously she's out of the race, but who saw Aniston becoming a contender for a film that no one really liked to the point where she had to make up some distribution company and buy it herself so that it could get into a theater.

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    2. "she was the only realistic (or at least the most realistic) option for about two months time." No, she really wasn't.

      She may be JLaw 2.0 with her immature and awful behavior but as a person following the race I can tell you at no point did she seem like a contender to me. And I don't mean Aniston, but Swank and Cotillard were automatically bigger locks just because they are previous winners and had the movie out. And Aniston getting love from journalists who would (and did) nominate anyone just to get them to attend isn't making her a lock for me. If she gets Oscar nomination it's gonna because Cotillard's votes split, not because she is actually gaining momentum.

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    3. Well, we can agree to disagree. I get that you never considered her a contender, but that isn't how these things work. Cotillard has been snubbed every time she's been in the conversation since her win, and she was in a foreign film and wasn't going to campaign. Until she won NYFCC, she wasn't even a real possibility, despite the raves she had. AMPAS just doesn't go out of their way to reward foreign films. Swank was in a film that was reviewed as extremely bleak, and while she had a character that was pure bait, there was just no talk about her. All her buzz had died. It's been resparked, sort of, but at that time, it was dead.

      Woodley had buzz, reviews, the desire to campaign and had vocal supporters. I never said she made sense, but at that point, with that dearth of contenders, she made the most sense.

      But that time has passed.

      I'm already eating a hefty helping of Unbroken crow, gurl, don't try and bake me a damn crow pie!

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  5. You made me laugh with the line about Arquette aging-hahahaaaa. Is Birdman supposed to be a comedy? I always find it funny where these people/films land in. I know it is TV but best variety show...there are no more variety shows sadly. Saturday Night Live is about the closest. OK I am off topic about films. I hope Streep does not get an Oscar nod. I am surprised by Big Eyes being here and that Unbroken is nowhere to be found.

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    1. From what I have read, Birdman is a black comedy...I mean, the trailer looks pretty damn funny, in a 'laugh at their pain' kind of way.

      Streep is getting the Oscar nod...but we've known that for months now.

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  6. The Boyhood stuff is killing me. I have literally just lost my love for it lately. I was so turned off by the last 30 minutes of that movie, and I've been unable to let it go. Ethan Hawke for Supporting Actor, and maybe Linklater for screenplay, is the only truly award-material aspect of it for me. But, you're so right about Simmons. That's my favorite performance of the year..period.

    I didn't really want to see Unbroken anyway, so I'm not worried at all about that. And I really don't want to see The Theory of Everything either, but I guess I'll have to. I am just so not a fan of biopics.

    Nice breakdown, man.

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    1. Boyhood was such a letdown. I really wanted it to be the best movie of the year...so badly.

      I have lost the will to talk about Unbroken...

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  7. Great coverage on these awards Drew! I'm just finally jotting down my thoughts on both GG and SAG. WOW, the Best Actor (Drama) category is a tough one this year, I probably be ok with any of them winning though based on what I've seen, I kind of want Carell to win. But I also like Oleyowo a lot and I'd really love him to get more roles in Hollywood. As for Best Actress (drama) category, I'd love for Pike to win this and please, please, please don't give it to Witherspoon!! WILD was so boring and she's not convincing nor compelling at all in the role.

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    1. Moore is winning the Lead Actress Oscar, period. No one will take that from her, least of all Witherspoon, who already has her Oscar. I wish that Pike had a stronger chance to fight for the gold, but this is very much a 2008-Winslet-'it is time' moment for Moore.

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  8. Bummed that you didn't like Boyhood (noticed it's not anywhere on your ballot), but it's slowly been losing ground for me. I want to watch it again, though I could see it missing my top 10. Maybe a rewatch will push it back into my top 5, but I think I might only give it a Best Director nod in the end.

    Love a lot of these nominations (keep forgetting that Inherent Vice is coming soon!), but I HATE that Begin Again couldn't score some love. It easily could've replaced some questionable nominees in Picture, Actor, Actress and Song. Ugh.

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    1. I'm afraid that my review for Boyhood may be a slaughter...so I'm resting on it for a while before I even attempt to put it all down.

      Also, the lack of Begin Again here is questionable in itself...like...why?

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