Wednesday, November 5, 2014

November Oscar Predictions!


I try and I fail.  My goal each month is to have my monthly predictions up on the 1st and that doesn't ever seem to happen.  Oh well.  There's no time like the present to talk about what it is you want to talk about, so let's talk about the Oscars!  We're getting closer, and awards season has officially begun (as we saw, Gothams have already announced their nominees).  Things will start to get clearer and clearer over the next month, so the December predictions will start to see some serious shaping, I'm sure.

So let's get on with the final set of blind predictions!



Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken


Dark Horse:  Whiplash


Director:
Clint Eastwood/American Sniper
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Birdman
Angelina Jolie/Unbroken
Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Christopher Nolan/Interstellar

Dark Horse:  David Fincher/Gone Girl


I'm so confused about Jessica Chastain this year.  Right now I'm leaving her off, but once her category is confirmed, I'm sure I'll be putting her in.


Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
Sienna Miller/American Sniper
Emma Stone/Birdman
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Dark Horse:  Kristen Stewart/Still Alice


Lead Actress:
Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon/Wild
Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars

Dark Horse:  Amy Adams/Big Eyes


Supporting Actor:
Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
Miyavi/Unbroken
Edward Norton/Birdman
Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons/Whiplash

Dark Horse:  Tom Wilkinson/Selma 


Lead Actor:
Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Jack O’Connell/Unbroken
Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything

Dark Horse:  Steve Carell or Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher


Adapted Screenplay:
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Inherent Vice


Original Screenplay:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar

Dark Horse:  Whiplash


Film Editing:
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  The Imitation Game


Costume Design:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Big Eyes


Production Design:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Exodus: Gods and Kings


Cinematography:
Birdman
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken
Wild

Dark Horse:  Mr. Turner


Visual Effects:
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar

Dark Horse:  Godzilla


Makeup & Hairstyling:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Into the Woods

Dark Horse:  Exodus: Gods and Kings


Sound Editing:
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Birdman

Sound Mixing:
Fury
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Birdman


Score:
Gone Girl (Reznor/Ross)
The Imitation Game (Desplat)
Interstellar (Zimmer)
The Theory of Everything (Johansson)
Unbroken (Desplat)

Dark Horse:  Fury (Price)


Song:
Everything is Awesome / The LEGO Movie
I Love You Too Much / The Book of Life
I’ll Get You What You Want / The Muppets Most Wanted
Lost Stars / Begin Again
Miracles / Unbroken

Dark Horse:  Mercy Is / Noah


Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Dark Horse:  The Book of Life



Documentary:
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Red Army
Rich Hill
Virunga

Dark Horse:  Case Against 8


Foreign Film:
Conducta (Cuba)
Ida (Poland)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Two Days One Night (Belgium)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Dark Horse:  Mommy (Canada)

6 comments:

  1. You really think they'll bite at Woodley for Fault? That just feels too Nicholas Sparky for Oscar season.

    I really think Jake Gyllenhaal will be in there for Nightcrawler, he was amazing.

    I would love Snowpiercer to get in there for visual effects or production design or something, but I know that's a big stretch.

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    1. I intended on putting in commentary on each race and WHY I predict what I predict, but this morning was such a rush for me that I'm lucky to have gotten the predictions themselves posted.

      As far as Woodley is concerned, any other year and I'd be right with you. In fact, earlier this year, when the film dropped and she got those RAVES and people were suggesting them I was saying the same thing..."this is way too teen for the Academy"...but this year has become so vacant!!! I mean, who else? Adams has no buzz anymore for a film that has awful reviews out of BOTH test screenings. Cotillard is in a foreign film that many won't bother to see. Blunt is in an ensemble (already hard to get noticed in Lead for those) and in a fantasy musical (again, already hard enough to get noticed in Lead for those) and she doesn't have standout notices like Streep. No one cares about Swank's movie anymore. Aniston? LOL. If Chastain campaigns Lead for A Most Violent Year then this category is sealed up. She'll take the fifth spot, but for now I'll predict Woodley because she really is the only other alternative that makes sense.

      And she's campaigning already.

      Gyllenhaal, despite GREAT reviews, isn't going to happen. Lead Actor is SO stacked, and that film is small and not up AMPAS ally. It'll be one of the best reviewed performances of the year that doesn't get a nomination.

      Snowpiercer really deserved a bigger push from Harvey. If he would get behind it, even a little, I bet it could surprise with some tech noms. Sadly, he forgot it existed.

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  2. Hmmm time will tell but I feel Unbroken will be a big nominee in several categories. I think it will be Julianne Moore's time especially since the topic is dementia. I also believe Michael Keaton will win and will come in from behind, be recognized, give a gushy speech about being found again and so on. I could be all wrong and usually am. I have to hear the best songs but usually Disney wins for something icky. Now Bright Eyes-I remember those paintings and thought they were the most god awful pieces of crappy schmaltz my little eyes had to see. If I had actually drawn them, i probably would have kept my mouth shut for being too embarrassed to admit to those horrendous ugly things. Heck i would rather look at Jackson Pollock

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    1. I'm with you on pretty much all Oscar related counts here. Moore, Keaton and Unbroken, in my eyes, are happening in a big way with Oscars.

      Disney's only song in contention this year is a rock/pop song by Fall Out Boy for Big Hero 6. It won't be nominated.

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  3. Wonderful post! I'm thinking we'll see a shocker in Best Actor again this year, like Tom Hanks' snub. It's way too crowded. I feel like we're missing a random Supporting Actress contender that could land a nod as well. I almost included doc predictions, but I'll do that next month. Ha, I love that Into the Woods - my predicted winner - probably won't even get a Best Picture nod. It looks like I was WAY off on that one.

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    1. Lead Actor is effing nuts. I have no idea what to do. I know that Keaton is getting nominated, and I think he's winning. Redmayne and Cumberbatch feel really safe...and then you have Carell, Tatum, Cooper, O'Connell and Isaac who all feel like they could have the narrative and passion to push them into the top five...

      I'm crossing my fingers that my YEAR LONG prediction that Unbroken is taking everything turns out to be correct. I'll finally feel like a real Oscar blogger if that happens, since I was one of the only ones to be all over that bandwagon for so long. It is looking promising, with all these other contenders falling aside as not Oscary enough.

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