Thursday, October 2, 2014

October Oscar Predictions!


I'm late.  My determined insistence on having my predictions up on the 1st of every month is a day late.  I blame Disney.  I've been so out of the loop, trying desperately to get back into it, that I've had to play catch up and all of the ideas I had for actual predictions turned out to get tossed on their heads this past week.  So, not all of my ideas and or explanations for my predictions are fully formed (or even present) but here are my predictions for the month with my predicted winner, if things turn out as I have predicted.



I feel like we’ve been circling the same batch of names for months now, with really no real change up.  In fact, outside of a film or two popping up, and a film or two going away, we’re really left with the same core films to choose from.  If we go back to my initial April predictions, six of the nine films I’m currently predicting are in those predictions.

My current predictions are:

Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
Wild

Why?

I just don’t see a lot of change.  I’ve lost faith in Into the Woods, but the rest seem pretty good to go at this point.  The only film I’m debating giving more attention to right now is American Sniper, but that may have to wait for next month to break in here.

Winner prediction:
I’m still very much of the thinking that Unbroken has this.


I’m somewhat torn here.  I feel like we’ve had the same names in contention for so long that someone has to come and break things up.  Is it really that simple?  And yet, who?

Right now, I’m thinking:

David Fincher/Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Birdman
Angelina Jolie/Unbroken
Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Christopher Nolan/Interstellar

So, I’m dropping Miller for the first time this year.  I don’t know what’s wrong with me.  He makes so much sense and yet not much sense at the same time.  The rest feel like a natural fit, with the possibility of Morten Tyldum becoming a serious threat or Ava DuVernay becoming a real contender if Selma is received to rapturous praise.

Who do I think will win:
Jolie, but my heart says that Fincher has a shot…a shot.


Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken

I went with my obvious bid for the top five films with AMPAS this year, considering that I just predicted all five of these films for BP, but I’m still rather unsure.  I feel like Foxcatcher and The Imitation Game are serious contenders here, and something like Fury could make a play here as well.  They like showy unless they are trying to embrace Oscar’s favorite films, and then they can get dull.  I’m wondering if Inherent Vice could factor in, if the comedic timing is bright enough to validate any sharp edits made.

Winner prediction:
I’d love to say Gone Girl takes this and Fincher’s films become dominant in this category, but I have a feeling Interstellar is taking this, and most of the techs.


Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Unbroken
Wild

What will win:
Unbroken, all the way.


Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcather
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma

Winner prediction:
I have a sneaking suspicion that this becomes that area where Boyhood snags its only Oscar.


I don’t even know what to think anymore.  For the longest time I just assumed that Into the Woods was going to be our next double dipped nominee here, and yet with category confusion regarding Blunt and Streep and lackluster mentions coming out of the test screenings with no one really singled out as MVP or even nomination worthy, I’m losing all faith that the film itself will get anything past some techs.  Supposedly Streep is officially going Supporting, but at the moment I haven’t the energy to predict her.

So really, the pool seems shallow, with contenders no one saw coming (Stewart, Miller) becoming possibilities, and a cloud of curiosity hovering over the girls from Interstellar.  Could Hathaway be up for another Oscar so soon?  Early word is that she’s very good in the film.

Right now, I’m predicting:

Patricia Arquette / Boyhood
Laura Dern / Wild
Carmen Ejogo / Selma
Keira Knightley / The Imitation Game
Emma Stone / Birdman

My thinking:

Boyhood is becoming that little film that could, and Arquette is probably going to have the easiest time of the cast to get nominated.  She’s never been nominated before, and she’s a loved veteran actress who has paid her dues and is well respected.  Dern is also beloved, comes from a loved family, and she’s also a previous nominee and it would make sense (or at least follow the new pattern) of the 90’s returning nominee in this category.  She’s said to have a great role and a great presence in the film.  And then you have the three young actresses in Oscary films.  Knightley doesn’t have a whole lot to do, but The Imitation Game is set to be a huge Oscar vehicle, and many consider her due for a second nom.  Ejogo is such a talented young actress, and she’s playing the wife (suffering?) of Martin Luther King Jr.  Enough said.  And then you have Emma Stone, the current ‘it girl’ in a film by an auteur where she plays the drug addicted spawn of a washed up film star.  She’s said to be fantastic in the film, and it just seems like the right time to christen her with an Oscar nomination.

My predicted winner:
Emma Stone, unless Arquette sweeps through the critic’s awards and becomes a real thing.


I’m not sure yet what to make of the Foxcatcher guys.  Category placement, I feel, is going to be up in the air until the awards start getting doled out.  They’ve stated that both Tatum and Carell will run Lead, and yet either one of them would be an easy winner, were they demoted to this category.  I have a feeling, then when one is embraced in Lead and the other gets Gyllenhaal’d then we’ll see the switch.  This could mean a nomination for Tatum here, but if they wait on the switch it could mean that the traction for a win will be lost when someone else starts racking up the televised wins.

I’m also not so sure what to make of the Selma supporting players.  My heart says that Wilkinson will be on top (and possibly in the running for the actual Oscar win) and yet, I’ve heard a lot of fuss surrounding Roth and his antagonist character, and we all know how Oscar feels about an antagonist.  Still, remember 2012?  Tommy Lee Jones snagged the Oscar nom, and so did Waltz, over the ‘overdue’ DiCaprio.

Unbroken is also a questionmark for me, since I still strongly feel it’ll be our Best Picture winner and yet these acting categories are looking so tight that I’m struggling to find room for anyone, not even O’Connell anymore, and I was almost entirely confident he was locked and loaded a few months ago.  Here, I always considered Miyavi the favored, since he was the chief antagonist and was said to have a more sympathetic than imagined role (sympathetic villains are a plus here), but early word back from the test screenings was that Domhall Gleeson is one of the film’s MVPs, and so I’m wondering if we’ll see him pop up in the conversation at all.

And while his star is certainly rising, I have no faith in a Logan Lerman nomination; at least not this early in his career.

At the current moment, I’m predicting:

Edward Norton/Birdman
Martin Short/Inherent Vice
J.K. Simmons/Whiplash
Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher
Tom Wilkinson/Selma

Here’s my thinking. 

Wilkinson is the kind of actor who will win an Oscar one day, and this could be his year.  It’s a sympathetic role, a real life person and an important movie.  If he has enough screen time, he’s in.  Norton just feels like a perfect foil here.  He’s said to be the film’s comedic MVP, and he’s also said to have a really large role, which helps.  Simmons has all the heat in the world right now, and the reputation to constitute a ‘welcome to the club’ type nomination.  I was very cool on Inherent Vice for a while now, but that recent trailer had me thinking that the ensemble looked too uniformly ‘in the zone’ to miss entirely.  My money is on Short, supposedly a scene stealer, nabbing one of those ‘never saw this coming’ type nominations. 

And then there is Tatum.  I know that choosing him seems risky, since it’s reported that he’s going to be campaigned in Lead, but this performance has such great ink right now that I feel the studio will want to capitalize on where they think they can get, not just the nom, but the win.  Ruffalo, while clearly Supporting, isn’t going to win.  He doesn’t have the reviews.  Yes, he has good reviews, but he’s clearly spoken of as third in line.  Tatum has the best reviews of the cast, but Carell has the role that is most likely going to be considered the dominant.  Carell also has the deglam, comedian goes drama angle that Oscar loves.  I feel like, in the end, the studio is going to push Tatum in the category where they feel he could actually achieve victory, and I do feel that if they switch him soon enough, he will.

So, my predicted winner:
I could honestly see any of Simmons, Norton, Tatum or Wilkinson winning this, and I’d love for it to be a questionmark all season long.  Right now, I am placing my bet on Wilkinson, but I know that it’s a lot of wishful thinking at this point.


In all honesty, this category still feels somewhat empty.  There are names, but only a handful make much sense, and there are really only three names that, at this point, feel certain to be heard; Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon.  Those reviews are hard to ignore, and the buzz/heat coming from each performance/narrative/role is just too much at this point.  They are destined for Oscar nominations and one of them will win, I’m pretty sure of it.

After that, who knows.  I mean, Cotillard has some of the best reviews of the year, but she’s in a foreign film and couldn’t even win at Cannes and Oscar, for some stupid reason, refuses to welcome her back to the club.  Swank has a really baity role and got some nice notices, but no one is even thinking about her film anymore.  Woodley has outstanding reviews, but she’s also in a teen flick.  Felicity Jones is a nobody, and her film will really need to be HUGE with Oscar in order for her to make it.  Amy Adams makes sense, sort of, but those lackluster reviews didn’t write themselves.  And then there is Chastain.  Like, what’s happening with her?

Right now I’m predicting:

Amy Adams / Big Eyes
Julianne Moore / Still Alice
Rosamund Pike / Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon / Wild
Shailene Woodley / The Fault in Our Stars

Why?

Well, the three aforementioned trifecta of duh is pretty self-explanatory.  Those reviews, those roles, those narratives.  I mean, Witherspoon is this year’s Cast Away, Moore has the narrative of OVERDUE for a win and has the whole disability angle and has those stellar reviews, and Pike is in the role of the year and has the whole breakthrough angle working for her.  Done deal. They’re in.  Woodley has the reviews, and the shallow pool will make it easier to remember her, plus she’s everywhere right now, which will keep her fresh in people’s mind during voting time.  Adams, while looking earlier this year like the surefire winner, is hanging on by a thread, but the reviews for the film, while not spectacular, all made nice mentions of her, and she’s in a biopic and has already been wholly embraced by Oscar FIVE other times, so it just makes sense, kind of.

I mean, who else?

My predicted winner:
Julianne Moore, with the possible chance that Pike becomes unbeatable after the film opens.


I just want to say…“I was right!”

I’m obviously talking about Affleck and the role in Gone Girl being perfect for him.  I was laughed at, teased and told I was being stupid when I said that he had a super baity role and that it was a perfect fit for him as an actor.  I was told it was Pike or nothing and that Affleck wouldn’t even factor into the race.  Guess what, I was right!  Reviews are in, and he’s getting RAVES!!!  I had him predicted in April and May and then took him out for a few months, only to put him back in last month…before the raves, and guess what, he’s staying!!!

LOL, this is a tough one to call right now though, because I think there are eight names with big chances of making it.

Affleck, Carell, Cooper, Cumberbatch, Keaton, O’Connell, Oyelowo, Redmayne.

Right now, I’m predicting:

Ben Affleck/Gone Girl
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton/Birdman
David Oyelowo/Selma

My thinking on the matter:

I know, I’ve been on the O’Connell train since the very beginning, but every ride has its end and he’s only 24 and that was something I chose to ignore for a long time.  Still, I think he’s very possible, so I’m not counting him out yet.  Redmayne is a big questionmark for me because he has stellar reviews and has a baity role and looks astonishing in the trailer and has everything that Oscar asks for (biopic, physical challenges, transformative role, sympathetic) and yet the whole thing feels very…been there done that and not all that exciting.  Cooper is hungry.  He’s going to campaign his ass off, but so little is known about the project at this point. 

Cumberbatch and Keaton are getting career best notices and Carell has all the narrative in the world.  Affleck has the reviews/role/perfect timing factor, and Oyelowo is playing MLK…so.

Predicted winner:
Steve Carell, unless Keaton’s comeback narrative is too large to ignore.


The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Predicted winner:
Into the Woods



Birdman
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken
Wild

Who I think will win:
Unbroken, but it could go any way at this point, and betting against Interstellar seems like a poor decision.


Big Eyes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

What I think would win:
Into the Woods, unless The Grand Budapest Hotel pulls off a surprise win here.


Into the Woods
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Winner Prediction:
For a film I don’t think will be all that successful in the above tier categories, Into the Woods just feels like a natural fit for these wins here.


Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies
Interstellar

Winner prediction:
Interstellar, hands down.


Fury
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken

What will win:
Interstellar.


Birdman
Get on Up
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into the Woods

Again:
Interstellar


Well, I’ll admit to being pretty bummed out right now.  Clint Mansell is one of my favorite composers working right now, and the idea of him scoring The Imitation Game (and netting an Oscar nom for it) had me so extremely excited, but now I hear that he’s been replaced by Desplat, who is great but already a multiple Oscar nominee (and most likely winner this year).  I know I’m late to this news, but I’m still pretty upset about it.

Anyways…

Foxcatcher (Danna)
Gone Girl (Reznor & Ross)
The Imitation Game (Desplat)
Interstellar (Zimmer)
Unbroken (Desplat)

Who will win:
I’m thinking that this is the year of Desplat, so I’m hedging my bets on Unbroken being that score.  What I’ve heard of it is stunning.


So, I’ve read some debate on the eligibility of the songs from The Fault in Our Stars, so I’m currently removing ‘All of the Stars’ from my predictions, but I may put it back once things get cleared up.  I’m going with a clear wild card, considering the state of the race at the moment, the lack of real solidified contenders and the fact that the song is rather stunning.  You’ll know it when you see it.

Begin Again (Lost Stars)
Book of Life (I Love You Too Much)
The LEGO Movie (Everything is Awesome)
Muppets Most Wanted (Something So Right)
Noah (Mercy Is)

Winner prediction:
‘Lost Stars’.


Big Hero 6
The Boy and the World
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Song of the Sea

What’ll win:
The LEGO Movie


I’m keeping my same predictions from last month (country-wise) but with the correct (or confirmed) submissions.

Human Capital (Italy)
Ida (Poland)
Mommy (Canada)
Two Days One Night (Belgium)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Who I think will win:
Belgium

16 comments:

  1. I'm interested with your director choices including Fincher and Jolie. I love them both. I would secretly love Fincher to win...after researching his debut and turmoil with Alien3, it would signify how far he's come. And he's come VERY far!

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    1. Fincher is my favorite director working today, and his Oscar loss for The Social Network is one of Oscars biggest screw ups. I'd love to see him finally win.

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  2. Dude! Miller?! I think he's definitely in and/but I know fuck all about predicting those things....I don't know it is a very strong category this year.

    Hathaway is going lead for Interstellar I think so that the votes won't split with Chastain.

    What is up with this Unbroken thing, was it screened anywhere? I heard buzz from everything from festivals but not for this one. I think this may be a misfire and then the slots will open.

    I'm not sure Affleck is getting raves...it's more 'well hell he proved us wrong' reaction. There are some raves but not as universal as the ones for Rosie and Fincher. Hell, I'd argue Perry has the same amount of good reviews as Ben, but I think he'll get nominated.

    I just don't want another 4 winners to be of the suffering kind. Yep, I cried, starved myself, played unattractive or sick person, give me my wins. That's why I don't want a Blanchett repeat. I want Pike up there.

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    1. I feel that the Miller exclusion will come back to bite me.

      Affleck's reviews are really, really good actually, and overall much better than Pike's even, at this point.

      I have a feeling that Unbroken is just going to open and dominate, but I've had that feeling all year long. If I'm wrong, I'll own it, but right now I'm standing by it.

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    2. I know you root for Ben but I read every single Gone Girl review linked on RT and while Ben is praised Pike is singled out and his reviews are nowhere near hers. I'm sure he is great but the reception is just not comparable - there are some reviews saying 'they are both great' but much much more people devoted a bulk of the review just to talk about how great Pike was.

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    3. Hmmm, I admit that I haven't caught up that much since returning from Disney, but I do remember that when the reviews first started pouring in, most acting mentions talked about how Ben was the one who grounded the film. Oh well, you're right, I'm rooting for him! I'm not really sure why, but I'm rooting for him :-P

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  3. Wow, nothing for Theory of Everything? How bold of you, sir.

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    1. I'm on the fence with it. It has nice reviews, and it feels like a fit, but it's from an unproven source and the categories it could compete it seem rather stuffed, outside of Lead Actress. I should have placed Jones in over Woodley, but really...she's the only nominee?

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  4. Predictions already! I still have to grasp what these films are about. Some I know (Into the Woods, Still Alice) but most I couldn't even rate at all. I think you do have some nominations right. Steve Carell gave a dramatic performance and hard to tell it's him from the quick images I saw so he'll be up. Ben Affleck will be up to always prove he can act. Tom Wilkinson will be up because he is, well, Tom Wilkinson. It will be interesting if Jolie wins and she might considering she is a woman director, big name actress, activist, adopts 5,000 kids and married to Pitt and got married. It's a shame these things are looked at more than the actual film or performance. Keaton might just be the engine who could! We will find out soon enough

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    1. I'm excited to see how this season pans out. I start making predictions in April and carry them through each month to the end of the year. It keeps me engaged during the non-awards heavy season.

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  5. Lack of Theory of Everything is interesting... I did actually get to see it at TIFF last month and can say that it will be shocking if Eddie Redmayne misses out on a nomination, and Felicity Jones really should get in as well. It's a solid crowd pleaser and I can see it slipping in for Best Picture, Cinematography (beautiful!) and possibly Original Score. But if anything, Redmayne is most likely in and possibly a solid contender.

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    1. It just feels like such a crowded year, and while it had a great reception, I'm wondering if it doesn't become that one film that fits the mold that ultimately fails in a sea of other films that fit that mold better.

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  6. Yep I think you've got it pretty solid here. Great work! I have some underdog proposals though: Whiplash, Men, Women and Children, Miss Julie and Fury. Also Charlie's Country for Foreign Language Film < this one's quite the dark horse but i'm hoping it'll at least get a nomination. And maybe The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet for cinematography. Sorry that was quite the ramble!

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    1. Whiplash could be that Indie hit that makes it into BP with the expanded field, but right now I'm thinking not. Fury may make a bigger dent than I'm expecting, so I'll have to keep my eyes open for that.

      I really want to see Miss Julie, personally, but I highly doubt it gets any Oscar traction.

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  7. I'll echo the concern for a lack of The Theory of Everything, which I'm predicting for at least five nominations at the moment. Still, it might get bumped out eventually.

    I'm wondering if The Imitation Game will become this year's The King's Speech. If it's the film everybody likes, it could benefit from split votes between Interstellar and Unbroken. At the moment, I'd lean towards predicting The Imitation Game for Best Picture (and Actor and Screenplay at the very least) and Nolan for Best Director.

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    1. I wonder the same thing about The Imitation Game...but I also have a hard time predicting ANOTHER Picture/Director split so soon. Nolan seems like the type of director who may never actually win an Oscar. I mean, are they really going to reward two Sci-Fi films in a row, when they have been so negligent to actually embrace them in the past?

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