Monday, September 1, 2014

September Oscar Predictions!


It’s the 1st of the month again, and that means it’s time for an Oscar Predictions update!  Not a whole lot is changing, especially in the techs, but I’ll discuss more of that in the notes below.

Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
Unbroken
Wild

The only change here is that I’m replacing The Grand Budapest Hotel with Boyhood.  Honestly, I should have done that last month, but I was stubborn.  Reviews out of Venice have cemented Birdman in the top ten and the new teaser for Foxcatcher has me thinking this is a real contender.  The rest I’m fairly confident in, still.

Director
David Fincher/Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Birdman
Angelina Jolie/Unbroken
Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

The only change is that I’m replacing Tyldum with Linklater.  I don’t know what to make of this category, since all five of these make perfect sense, but so does Tyldum, DuVernay and part of me thinks Nolan could really make a play here.

Film Editing
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken

I replaced The Imitation Game and Birdman with Boyhood and Interstellar.

Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Unbroken
Wild

I’m taking out Trash and putting in Inherent Vice, but really, at this moment, that fifth spot is like a revolving door.

Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Selma

I replaced The Grand Budapest Hotel with Interstellar.

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Emily Blunt/Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year
Carmen Ejogo/Selma
Emma Stone/Birdman

The only change this month is taking out Kendrick and putting in Arquette.  I also thought about predicting Dern.  Chastain’s reviews out of the screening last week were really good, despite the seemingly tepid response to the actual film, and I still feel like Blunt is going to be our odds on favorite for the win.  That role is just too baity.

Supporting Actor
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
Edward Norton/Birdman
Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
Tom Wilkinson/Selma

I’m replacing Tatum with Carell and taking out Miyavi in favor of Hawke.  Boyhood is having a really strong showing and I just feel like goodwill for the stars and the effort they made here is going to show on Oscar nomination morning, even if it doesn’t get a ton of support elsewhere.  Carell is probably going to win, if he goes this route.  Wilkinson is my Selma spot holder until I know more about who stands out in the film.  I hope it’s him.

Lead Actor
Ben Affleck/Gone Girl
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Jack O’Connell/Unbroken
David Oyelowo/Selma
Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher

This category is messing with my head because there are about eight contenders that I think all make sense as Oscar nominees, and so leaving off any of them feels wrong.  Affleck has the perfect role for his breed of acting, and he also has the perceived directing snub heard all around the world to make up for.  Keaton has the comeback narrative working in his favor, plus great ink out of Venice and a director who Oscar has fawned over.  O’Connell may be young, but his role is BAIT, and I still think that Unbroken is our odds on Oscar favorite in BP.  Oyelowo is playing MLK, enough said.  And then there is Tatum, who is bound to get a nom eventually, starring in a film by an Oscar darling and has the best reviews of the cast straight out of Cannes.  He’ll also campaign like crazy.  But these five leave off Cumberbatch, who has Weinstein, is playing gay (and a biopic) and feels due for a nom (kind of like Fassbender did), Redmayne, who has an extremely baity and physical role, and Spall, who won at Cannes and feels like one of those prestige performances Oscar could run to reward.  I have such doubts.

Lead Actress
Amy Adams/Big Eyes
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods
Kate Winslet/A Little Chaos
Reese Witherspoon/Wild

This is a wasteland, and when it is a wasteland, Streep gets a nomination.  Early word is that Winslet is great and charmingly funny in A Little Chaos, so I’m throwing a prediction her way.  All I know is that Pike is looking more and more like our likely winner.

Costumes
Big Eyes
Exodus: Gods & Kings
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Took out The Grand Budapest Hotel and Maleficent and St. Laurent for more Oscary looking films like Big Eyes, Exodus and Inherent Vice.  Oh, wait…those aren’t Oscary either.

Cinematography
Birdman
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Nothing has changed.

Art Direction
Exodus: Gods & Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Nothing has changed.

Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

I took out Exodus and put in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which should have been here last month.

Makeup
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods

Taking out that Hobbit creation and putting in Foxcatcher.

Sound Editing
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Swapping Godzilla for Guardians, which is probably a dumb thing to do right now, but whatever.

Sound Mixing
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Into the Woods

Nothing has changed.

Score
Mychael Danna/Foxcatcher
Alexandre Desplat/Unbroken
Clint Mansell/The Imitation Game
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross/Gone Girl
Hans Zimmer/Interstellar

Nothing has changed.

Song
‘All the Stars’ from The Fault in Our Stars
‘Everything is Awesome’ from The LEGO Movie
‘Lost Stars’ from Begin Again
‘Something So Right’ from Muppets Most Wanted
‘Untitled Love Song’ from The Book of Life

Ok, so apparently the Witches song has been removed from Into the Woods, so I’m going to blind predict the love song from The Book of Life, which I hear is good.

Animated Film
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Song of the Sea

Nothing has changed.

Foreign Film
Argentina (Wild Tales)
Belgium (Two Days One Night)
Canada (Mommy)
Italy (The Wonders)
Poland (Ida)


I was informed that Trash may not make the deadline in order to be eligible for this, so I’m taking it out, and since a few countries have announced their submissions, I’m going to predict a few of those.

10 comments:

  1. I still think Unbroken won't make it, it just looks beyond cheesy. It will be especially jarring in a year of seriously dark films, Foxcatcher looks intense enough to make everyone vomit black goo for a week and look like McGregor on detox in Transpotting after seeing it.

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    1. It may look cheesy, but it also looks very Oscary. I mean, these themes are so up their ally!

      Foxcatcher, from all reports, is going to be incredible. I'm almost 100% certain that Tatum is getting that Oscar nom this year.

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  2. Interesting predictions. My observations:

    I think Birdman is a strong contender in Editing.
    I think Italy will go with Human Capital as their submission.

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    1. Editing was so hard for me to narrow down! I feel like Boyhood is in, and Interstellar makes sense as well, considering the type of film and the high profile aspect of it all. And you usually have BP frontrunners in the mix, and I still think that Unbroken is our Oscar winner, so it's in. Foxcatcher and Gone Girl just feel too flashy to ignore, but from everything I hear about Birdman, maybe that editing will be too much to ignore as well!

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  3. It's a shame it looks like a thin year for actresses, that happens far too frequently but if it works in Rosamund Pike's favor than there is an upside. Love her.

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    1. Right now, it's her or Witherspoon, and I'm leaning towards Pike because I have a feeling Gone Girl is going to be HUGE. The sad thing is that if Oscar would actually watch more films than the ones thrown in their faces, they've have a bounty of amazing female performances to chose from.

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    2. I agree wholeheartedly about their narrow vision and Rosamund Pike is a good example of that. She's been very good in several things throughout the years and only now when she's in something so buzzed about is she getting the sort of attention she deserves. It happens to actresses still waiting for that big role like Melanie Lynskey and ones who have been acknowledged but chose more challenging less high profile projects like Rachel Weisz. Frustrating.

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    3. Yup! Lynskey really should have had the same career as Winslet, considering they both broke out from the same film (and Lynskey was actually better in said film), but her career took a different path (Winslet, being the more aesthetically beautiful of the two probably had something to do with the roles they were offered). It's a shame, because she's always great in anything she does.

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  4. Great stuff man. I'm still not sold on Selma's chances, and I'm wondering if Foxcatcher might only pop up in Picture, Screenplay, and the acting categories. Plus, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game have emerged as serious contenders for multiple nominations now. Can't wait to see what other developments occur!

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    1. UGH, I know...I took out Cumberbatch two days before the influx of reviews for him...and now I feel like he needs to go back. Also, Carell is confirmed as Lead for the film, which means my switch it irrelevant. I have a feeling that both Tatum and Affleck are out at this point, which makes me sad, since I was really confident in both of them all year.

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