Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Official April Oscar Predictions


There are so many contenders this early out that predicting is really hard, as we all know, and best we can hope for is to get one or two of these correct.  I really didn’t want to labor these too much.  Last year I spent MONTHS compiling possible contenders in all categories and trying to reason out every alternative and it was all so exhausting.  I can’t get into that now.  So, I’m just going for it. 

Again, as with last year, I teamed up with Josh over at The Cinematic Spectacle to post simultaneous predictions, seeing where we match up and which films we are supporting separately.  We are in far more unison this year than we were last year.  We seem to have our eyes on the same batch of films and names, so I’m ready for some shake ups to come!

Let’s get this thing started:


PICTURE
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Trash
Unbroken
Wild

Josh’s Predictions:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Magic in the Moonlight
Trash
Unbroken

We agree on 9/10 of these, with my faith leaning towards Wild and Josh giving his final spot to Magic in the Moonlight.

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson / Inherent Vice
Tim Burton / Big Eyes
Angelina Jolie / Unbroken
Bennett Miller / Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan / Interstellar

Josh’s Predictions:
Paul Thomas Anderson / Inherent Vice
David Fincher / Gone Girl
Rob Marshall / Into the Woods
Bennett Miller / Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan / Interstellar

Both of us are (probably foolishly) placing blind faith in Christopher Nolan this year, although statistics defy our prediction.  We match up on two others (Anderson and Miller).  I am extremely bullish on Unbroken (as you’re about to see) while Josh has more faith in Gone Girl and Into the Woods than I do.

SCREENPLAYS:

ADAPTED
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Suite Française
Trash
Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Trash
Unbroken

ORIGINAL
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Mr. Turner

Josh’s Predictions:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Magic in the Moonlight

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt/Into the Woods
Viola Davis/Get on Up
Kristin Scott Thomas/Suite Française
Emma Stone/Birdman
Meryl Streep/Suffragette

Josh’s Predictions:
Viola Davis/Get on Up
Marcia Gay Harden/Magic in the Moonlight
Anna Kendrick/Into the Woods
Kristin Scott Thomas/Suite Française
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

I love how the idea of who is going to get traction from Into the Woods is so up in the air.  It is an ensemble, and Streep SHOULD go Supporting, but I have a feeling that she’ll get Lead traction.  Still, I have her predicted here for Suffragette, although Josh is expecting that film to get delayed to 2015.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice
Edward Norton/Birdman
Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher
Martin Sheen/Trash
Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes

Josh’s Predictions:
Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice
Philip Seymour Hoffman/A Most Wanted Man
Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher
Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes

Josh is predicting a double dip here for the Foxcatcher boys, while I’m leaning towards Tatum.  He was my #1 predict last year, and I feel the same way this year.  As long as he campaigns in Supporting, I think he’s in.  Josh is also predicting a posthumous nomination for Hoffman.  I’d love to see that happen, simply because he was so talented and it would, in a way, prolong his stay here on Earth, but unless the film catches on with Oscar I don’t see it happening. 

LEAD ACTOR
Ben Affleck/Gone Girl
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Brendan Gleeson/Calgary
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Jack O’Connell/Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Ben Affleck/Gone Girl
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Michael Keaton/Birdman
Jack O’Connell/Unbroken
Joaquin Phoenix/Inherent Vice

We are 4/5 here.  I had Phoenix in my initial predictions, but I dropped him based on some stupid ass dream I had where Gleeson became a thing and because I love him I decided to pretend that my dreams mean something.

LEAD ACTRESS
Amy Adams/Big Eyes
Carey Mulligan/Suffragette
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Michelle Williams/Suite Française
Reese Witherspoon/Wild

Josh’s Predictions:
Amy Adams/Big Eyes
Berenice Bejo/The Search
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
Michelle Williams/Suite Française
Reese Witherspoon/Wild

Again, 4/5 here, with Josh predicting a Bejo return while I’m leaning towards Mulligan.  Josh doesn’t think Suffragette is being released this year, so that may be why he’s not predicting her.  The role is extremely baity, and she NEEDS a second nomination, so I’m hoping and praying it happens.

FILM EDITING
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
Far From the Madding Crowd
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Gone Girl
The Immigrant
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

COSTUME DESIGN
Big Eyes
Far From the Madding Crowd
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Suite Française

Josh’s Predictions:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Grace of Monaco
Into the Woods
Jersey Boys
Magic in the Moonlight

ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
Big Eyes
Far From the Madding Crowd
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Into the Woods
Suite Française

Josh’s Predictions:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Hobbit: Here and Back Again
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods

Josh’s Predictions:
Foxcatcher
Into the Woods
Maleficent

VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
The Hobbit: Here and Back Again
Interstellar
Noah

Josh’s Predictions:
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
The Hobbit: Here and Back Again
Interstellar
Noah

This is the only category where we match up 5/5!

SOUND EDITING
Black Sea
Fury
The Hobbit: Here and Back Again
Interstellar
Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Fury
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction

SOUND MIXING
Fury
Godzilla
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Josh’s Predictions:
Fury
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Into the Woods

ORIGINAL SCORE
*I decided to only predict the films that had someone attached to score right now, so films like ‘Far from the Madding Crowd’, which is bound to have a beautiful and showy score, is not up for prediction yet. 

Big Eyes (Elfman)
Gone Girl (Rezner & Ross)
Interstellar (Zimmer)
Suite Française (Desplat)
Unbroken (Desplat)

Josh’s Predictions:
Exodus: Gods and Kings (?)
Gone Girl (Rezner & Ross)
Inherent Vice (Greenwood)
Interstellar (Zimmer)
Unbroken (Desplat)

ORIGINAL SONG
The Boxtrolls
Frank
Into the Woods
The LEGO Movie
Muppets Most Wanted

Josh’s Predictions:
Can a Song Save Your Life?
Into the Woods
The LEGO Movie
Muppets Most Wanted
Unbroken

FOREIGN FILM
*Like throwing darts at an imaginary dartboard, since we have  no idea what films will be selected by their respective countries, but here we go.

Coming Home (China)
Living is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain)
Trash (Brazil)*
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)

Josh’s Predictions:
Canada
China
France
Germany
Spain

ANIMATED FILM
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie*
When Marnie Was There

Josh’s Predictions:
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

Josh went with only three nominees (all three of them I also predict), while I went with five to monopolize my chances at getting these right.

So, for now I’m not getting into Docs and the short subject films, since we really don’t know what is going to be released at this moment in time.  For fun, here are my early nomination tallies.

9 Nominations:
Unbroken

8 Nominations:
Big Eyes
Interstellar
Into the Woods

7 Nominations:
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice

6 Nominations:
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Suite Française

4 Nominations:
Trash

3 Nominations:
Far From the Madding Crowd
The Hobbit: Here and Back Again

2 Nominations:
The Boxtrolls
Fury
Godzilla
The LEGO Movie
Suffragette
Wild

1 Nomination:
Black Sea
The Book of Life
Calgary
Coming Home
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Exodus
Frank
Get on Up
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Living is Easy with Eyes Closed
Mr. Turner
Muppets Most Wanted
Two Days, One Night
Noah
When Marnie Was There

Winter Sleep

12 comments:

  1. Interesting predictions. Good luck!

    I'm surprised that there's no love for "Home" in Animated Feature. That one sounds like it's gonna be big.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking over the synopsis on IMDB, I'm left thinking it'll be one of those generic cartoons that no one cares much for outside of the voice cast. Like, how often does AMPAS embrace alien cartoons?

      But I'll keep my eyes open for it. This early, there is so much guesswork.

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  2. Hmmm...seeing how badly Jolie's debut film was received I'm surprised at so many predictions for her new one. I'm really hoping for Pike getting nominated- she is so underrated!

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    Replies
    1. Her debut had a lot of scripting issues, but it showed she was a competent filmmaker. Couple that with the fact that this script was penned by the Coens, is lensed by Deakins and is based on a heroic true story and you have Oscar bait personified. Plus, AMPAS really likes her.

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  3. WHOA, I can't even think of award season, let alone Oscar :D That said, out of your nominees I'm most interested in seeing Gone Girl, Interstellar and Unbroken. The protagonist in Jolie's film Louis Zamperini is a committed Christian, I hope they don't overlook that aspect in the film as I think that is integral to his story.

    I haven't even heard of Birdman yet but I like Keaton, boy I sure hope that'd give him a career resurgence boost!

    – ruth

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    Replies
    1. Early word on Birdman is that it is a GREAT film with some stylized cinematography and a great comedic cast.

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  4. I'm amazed at yours and Josh's Oscar coverage throughout the year. I couldn't wrap my head around it all this far out.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Britt! Oscar coverage was the main reason I started this blog and so it's nice to find a kindred spirit in the whole thing. Josh and I meet in the middle mostly, with differing passions or predictions, but last year, while not getting a slew correct individually, managed to predict quite a bit combined.

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  5. Always a pleasure man. I really hope some of your predictions come true, especially about Suffragette and Far from the Madding Crowd. :)

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    Replies
    1. I'm just hoping that they come out this year!

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  6. Wow, great work here. How cool would it be if Angelina Jolie was nominated for Best Director? I haven't even seen the damn film yet, but that's something I would definitely be on board with. I think we're going to have a great rest of the year at the movies.

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    Replies
    1. This year looks great. 2013 was one of the best years for film we've had in a VERY long time, so I'm hoping that 2014 can at least reach that bar.

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