Monday, February 17, 2014

BAFTA wins and Oscar speculation...

So, last night BAFTA had their Oscar ceremony and attempted to predict the Oscars (sort of) and threw a few bones to their films (which also happened to be Oscar's Hollywood films) and may have given us a little insight into how the Oscars might pan out.

The strangest thing for me is how weak 12 Years a Slave seems as a Best Picture winner.  It has won every televised Best Picture award except for SAG, which went to American Hustle, and yet it fails to win almost everything else.  It couldn't even snag a win for Fassbender last night, and that should have been a give-in considering the lack of Leto in the lineup.  It also lost Screenplay, which was odd, so at the end of the night it won two awards (one of those being Best Picture) and it has me seriously doubting it wins the Oscar.

Could Gravity actually be our winner?

Think about it.  Gravity took home six awards last night, including Best British Film, so it technically won a Best Film award.  It is practically locked up to win seven Oscars (Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Score) and with that huge a haul, I can see it snagging Best Picture as well, rounding out the total to eight.  It would look more impressive on paper (8 Time Oscar Winning Best Picture Gravity) than the prospects of 12 Years a Slave, which at the most would take home three (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress) and all of those are shaky.  

12 Years a Slave just feels like the important film of the year, which means that many will feel obligated to place it at #1 on their ballots, but does that really mean that they will?  Will they really pencil in the film as the best of the year, and ignore it everywhere else?

It's food for thought...

Anyways, without further ado; the BAFTA winners:

Best Film: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso CuarĂ³n, Gravity
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best British Film: Gravity
Best Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer: Kieran Evans
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay: Philomena
Best Film Not In The English Language: The Great Beauty
Best Documentary: The Act of Killing
Best Original Film Score: Gravity
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Editing: Rush
Best Sound: Gravity
Best Animated Film: Frozen
Best Visual Effects: Gravity
Best Makeup and Hair: American Hustle
Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Costumes: The Great Gatsby
Best Short Film: Room 8
Best Animated Short: Sleeping With The Fishes

I actually correctly predicted most of these, which I'm kind of shocked by.  I didn't post my predictions here (not sure why I skipped that) but you can see them here.  I'll be getting my final Oscar predictions up soon, sometime next week.  We know now about all we need to know to make a good guess, but it's still so odd to me that this close to the ceremony, Best Picture is such a questionmark.


  1. I think Gravity will win most of the awards in the technical categories at the Oscars. I'd like to see 12 Years win Best Film if Cuaron wins Best Director because I want the major wins to be balanced between those two films I think. Fassbender really should have won last night - I'd love to see him get the Oscar but Leto probably will win it.
    But I do agree with you, it's such a close race this year, I really don't know what to expect!

    1. Last night proved that Leto has the Oscar on lock. Cooper would have needed to win in order to throw possibly shade in his direction, but that didn't happen and so Leto is winning in a landslide.

      BP is going to be a nailbiter!

  2. I'm not that knowledgeable when it comes to Oscar history but has there ever been A BP win with 2 or just 3 Oscars? I think 12YaS is taking this, I need to say it - because of the subject matter. Academy is just not bold enough not to award what is considered the most realistic movie about slavery. As for the other wins - it may win Screenplay and I'm hoping S.Actress.

    1. Crash only took Editing and Screenplay. Argo took Editing, Screenplay and Sound that's 4. In the early years (30's and whatnot) it wasn't uncommon to have the Best Picture winner have a small pull. Grand Hotel won BP and nothing else. In recent years it's less common, but 4 is actually a decent pull considering how often the wealth gets spread. Even a film like The Artist only won 5 Oscars, losing some awards that could have went it's way in a sweep (Cinematography, Screenplay).

    2. Well 5 is still good, but I think 12YaS will end with 3. Anyway I don't like making predictions, I don't want to jinx the only two categories I care about - Actor and S. Actress. First because of love, second because of hate :)

    3. LOL, love for McCon and hate for JLaw?

    4. re: Argo - It only won 3 awards. Sound Editing went to Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty. ;)

    5. You're right! I almost Googled it because I couldn't remember off the top of my head, but I remembered predicting it for Sound Editing, and I remembered that there was a I was like, maybe it took half of that one too.

  3. I'm debating 2 scenarios. Either Gravity wins 7 or 8 including Best Picture, or 12 Years wins at least 4 or 5 including Best Picture. (I just can't see 12 Years only winning 2 or 3 if it wins Picture.) Maybe 12 Years surprises and takes 5: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and something like Production Design. I've seen the idea tossed around AD, and it's growing on me.

    Right now, I'm sticking with Gravity. One contributing factor is: What will voters who put American Hustle at #1 put at #2? Probably Gravity. If so, I think it wins.

    1. I think Gravity takes everything and 12 Years walks away with an Adapted Screenplay consolation prize.