Thursday, January 31, 2013

The girl without the guy that jumpstarted her tattoo craze...



There was a lot of talk last year when ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ was released about the unnecessary nature of the whole thing, considering that the Swedish films weren’t exactly OLD (I mean, like, they came out in the US the year prior) but I was an advocate for them since I was intrigued by the story but not wholly satisfied with the Swedish bred films (outside of Rapace’s stellar three-fold performance).  Couple that with my lust for all things Fincher and my desire to watch Daniel Craig flourish in a key role and you had me A.I.S. (ass in seat).  With the hugely successful English language reboot, Fincher and company were immediately in talks to pick up the other two films in the trilogy and give them a go.  I was on board.  Now talk is ruminating over the possibility of Daniel Craig being a fucking diva and his character being cut entirely from the next two films.  This is a BAD idea.  Mikael Blomkvist, while more of a presence or ‘star’ in the first book/film than the second and third, is such a major force behind the story and sacrificing him entirely for the sake of a few dollars spent seems ridiculous.  GET CRAIG ON BOARD or scrap the whole thing.  ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ is not a story that demands a sequel since the corresponding stories engulf other aspects of Salander’s life anyways.  The initial story is done, so either get everyone to return or drop the fucking ball and walk away!

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Ann with an E

OK, so I just want to say that I wholly believe that Anne Hathaway deserves that Oscar HANDS DOWN, but this couldn't be resisted.


O
M
G


Monday, January 28, 2013

SAG wins and the big Director conundrum…



So last night Argo solidified its Best Picture Oscar win, which is like the oddest thing in the history of forever; and this is coming from the guy who proclaimed Argo the winner earlier this year and stood by that (more or less) until Oscar noms were announced.  Still, it’s hard to imagine it winning Best Picture when Ben Affleck has no shot at winning Director.  Couple that with the fact that Affleck already has won the Globe and the BFCA and is practically locked for the DGA (not to mention in the running for the BAFTA) and you have the weirdest Oscar race in the history of forever (yes, I know I used that phrase twice, but it just seemed so fitting).

SAG firmed up DDL, Lawrence and Hathaway as Oscar frontrunners and gave us another Sup. Actor winner, although I’m thinking that Oscar will repeat and give us TLJ (unless De Niro wins by some stroke of weirdness).  That still leaves us pondering one race; Director.

Seriously, what the hell?

Argo is steamrolling towards Oscar victory, but the Affleck snub from the Academy has the whole thing feeling very bizarre.  The only other film that won Best Picture without a director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy.  Like, this is just mindboggling.  Affleck seems just as confused as he accepts his awards with this look of sheer shock and excitement.  But who is going to win the Directing Oscar?  I mean, common sense would tell us that Ben Affleck will win with write in votes, but that isn’t happening.  Spielberg’s Lincoln was supposed to steal all of Argo’s thunder the minute Affleck was Oscar snubbed and yet it hasn’t and has turned into the DDL show and so I just can’t see Spielberg winning a lone directing win for a film many think should net both.  Same with O. Russell, who has experienced goodwill thanks to a resurgence for his film.  I can’t see him winning unless his film does.  I know that Lee has hit everything, but he feels like complete filler to me.  He isn’t winning anything.

So that leaves Zietlin and Haneke.  I don’t think Zietlin will win.  This is his first film and debut directors don’t win here.  His film would need to sweep, and while Beasts is clearly loved, it is going home empty handed at the Oscars.  Haneke on the other hand could actually win this.  He is clearly respected and loved and his film is loved and respected and this is his first nomination in a very long and prolific career.  This is also his most accessible film and over performed like crazy with Oscar nominations.  If there is a split, and Argo does win Best Picture, could voters click Haneke’s name in a way to reward the director?  I know it sounds crazy (when has a foreign director won for a foreign film?) but this year is so bizarre that it almost makes sense.  Then again, could they feel that a win for foreign film (which won’t go to Haneke despite the fact that he’ll accept it) and Original Screenplay (which will be his Oscar) is enough?  Could Spielberg actually win his third directing Oscar (second in a split year)?  I just don’t think Lincoln is seen as a director’s film.

                                                             
Call me crazy, but I think Haneke is seriously in the running here.

Friday, January 25, 2013

SAG Predictions



So, Sunday night is the SAG Awards.  I'm stoked, mostly because I have no idea how this is going to unveil.  I have my speculations, but this awards season has been so bizarre (right down to the Oscar noms and Argo's steamroll towards unexpected Oscar loss) that trying to get a real handle on who is actually going to walk away with SAG Awards is kind of hard.  PGA will probably do absolutely nothing tomorrow (I expect Argo to win) but it could change the game if a film like Silver Linings Playbook (my current thought for the Oscar) nabs an unexpected win.  Remember back in 2010, it was PGA's decision to award The King's Speech over The Social Network that shifted everything in the race.

So, let's talk about SAG.  It isn't uncommon to see some surprises here.  They don't always see eye to eye with Oscar, and considering that this is a large voting body of actors rewarding actors, there are times when career awards are doled out instead of just handing the award to the actor destined for Oscar.  Look at 2007, when both Ruby Dee and Julie Christie won SAGs and yet were snubbed in favor of Swinton and Cotillard at the Oscars.  This may be the case in the Supporting Actor category this year.  I have a feeling that De Niro is going to win this, but I still don't think he's winning the Oscar (although he might).  In fact, I'm leaning towards Silver Linings Playbook raking in three big wins Sunday; Supporting Actor, Lead Actress and Ensemble.

The only one I'm 100% confident in is Anne Hathaway winning for Les Miserables, but DDL is probably a lock too (even though he already has two of these).  If he loses, I could easily see it being to Jackman, who is a beloved actor and who has worked with many of his peers (and it doesn't hurt that he may be the most likable person in the world).

Ensemble is a really weird race.  It could honestly go to anyone except The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.  Argo has been hitting hard everywhere it goes, but I have a feeling that it is going to round out fourth here.  Lincoln could take this, but SAG is weird and they only 'nominated' such a small amount of the actual cast that it's almost embarrassing and insulting to be honest.  I just don't think the voting body will reward that, especially when a lot of the names left off the ballot are the names singled out in the reviews.  That brings me to Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook.  Like I mentioned, I'm betting on Silver Linings Playbook, but I would not be shocked it Les Miserables took this.  It is a very big ensemble filled with baity characters and enough moments for the whole cast to shine to varying degrees.  It also just 'feels' like an ensemble winner.  My reluctance to predict it comes from the fact that it really doesn't have a chance to win the Best Picture Oscar at this point, and a lot of the times this award goes to the film deemed the 'Best Picture' (it shouldn't, but it does).  That being said, The Help won last year, so maybe a more starry, ensemble reliant film CAN win again.

I still say Silver Linings Playbook takes a HUGE step towards Oscar glory Sunday night.

My full predictions (with alternates) below:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Winner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Les Miserables

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Alternate: Jackman/Les Miserables

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jones/Lincoln

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: Hathaway/Les Miserables
Alternate: Field/Lincoln

Trailer Break: Night Across the Street


If you take a gander at my Fisti Awards for 2011 you'll see that I lavish Mysteries of Lisbon with many awards and nominations.  While not my favorite film of 2011 (it is my runner-up to Beginners), I find it to be a solidified masterpiece and one of the finest films I've seen in a very, very long time.  It was also my first experience with a film by the late Raul Ruiz.  I was under the impression that Mysteries of Lisbon was his final film, but apparently there was one more waiting for release; Night Across the Street.  This looks magical, full of the same wonderment and fantasy (etched in reality) that made Mysteries of Lisbon so extraordinary.  This looks just as vibrant and textural as Mysteries was, and I'm just in awe of the beauty I see in this trailer.  Between this and the Coen's return to form, 2013 looks to be an exciting year for film!

My personal ensemble lists of the aughts...


With the SAG Awards looming over the horizon (SUNDAY) and the Fisti Awards for the aughts complete, I decided to give a go at an Ensemble category.  I don’t do these for the Fisti’s (I’m not sure why, actually) and so I gave it some thought this week and put together my top dozen for each year of the aughts (2000-2009).  I didn’t rank them, but you can see my winner in the picture above each list.  As for this year, I haven’t seen enough to solidify a ballot, especially since I’ve only seen two of the SAG nominated ensembles.  I’ll get to that later today though (I have to post my predicted winners, duh).  For now, here are my lists!


 2000:
Almost Famous
Best in Show
Billy Elliott
Bring it On
Dancer in the Dark
The House of Mirth
O’ Brother Where Art Thou?
Scary Movie
Together
The Virgin Suicides
X-Men
Yi Yi


2001:
A.I.
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
Code Unknown
Donnie Darko
Gosford Park
In the Bedroom
The Man Who Wasn’t There
Moulin Rouge!
O
The Royal Tenenbaums
Sexy Beast



2002:
8 Mile
8 Women
25th Hour
Adaptation
Catch Me if You Can
The Dangerous Lives of Alter Boys
Far From Heaven
Late Marriage
The Magdalene Sisters
Moonlight Mile
The Rules of Attraction
Talk to Her



2003:
21 Grams
Big Fish
Calendar Girls
Cold Mountain
Girl with the Pearl Earring
Irreversible
Kill Bill, vol. 1
Lost in Translation
Love Actually
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
A Mighty Wind
Pieces of April



2004:
Birth
Dogville
Downfall
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Friday Night Lights
I Heart Huckabees
Kill Bill, vol. 2
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou
Mean Creek
Mean Girls
Ray
Vera Drake



2005:
2046
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
A History of Violence
Hustle & Flow
Junebug
Match Point
Melinda and Melinda
Pride and Prejudice
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line



2006:
After the Wedding
Babel
Brick
Children of Men
The Departed
Friends with Money
Little Miss Sunshine
Marie Antoinette
The Prestige
The Proposition
United 93
Volver



2007:
Alpha Dog
American Gangster
Atonement
Control
The Edge of Heaven
I’m Not There
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Romance and Cigarettes
Superbad
This is England



2008:
The Brothers Bloom
Burn After Reading
Cassandra’s Dream
A Christmas Tale
The Class
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York
Tropic Thunder
Vicky Cristina Barcelona



2009:
35 Shots of Rum
Broken Embraces
Duplicity
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Millennium Trilogy
Precious
Star Trek
State of Play
Summer Hours
Whip It
The White Ribbon

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Trailer Break: Inside Llewyn Davis


So, the trailer is finally here for Inside Llewyn Davis and I couldn’t be more stoked for this.  The Coen Brothers are a directing duo I have grown to appreciate more than love, but when they hit the right strokes the do so in such a big way.  I’m less impressed with their more recent fare (I love their 80’s and 90’s work to no end) but this looks like a great amalgam of both worlds.  It holds that deadpan grit that they bring to their more recent fare, but there is a spirit here that calls to mind their more relaxed and effortless efforts from yesteryear.  This looks outstanding, and I have a feeling it could be a BIG player with Oscar this coming year.  Supposedly it is getting a December release date, which will bode well with Oscar.  Early word is that Oscar Isaac is killer in the lead, and this trailer highlight Mulligan (God’s gift to acting) in a way that makes me hopeful for her Oscar chances (“…and also because you’re an ASSHOLE!”).  I’m intrigued.  I can’t wait to see this. 

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Poster break: The Oscars


Oh, and this is going to be amazing!  I hope it means we're in for a surprise in Best Picture!!!

Tuesday Morning Tantrum…


I’m late to this.  I was going to post this yesterday and got sidetracked and so it’s today.  Whatever.  Anyways, I keep seeing the trailer for the movie ‘Broken City’, which I posted here a few months back.  For those of you who haven’t seen it, here it is:



Here’s my thing; this trailer once again reminded me that Mark Wahlberg shouldn’t be working so much.  I mean, there are just some actors who rub you the wrong way and Wahlberg is one of them.  I’m baffled as to his career and why it possesses such longevity.  The man has zero range and has an embarrassingly arrogant personality.  I’m sure to his friends he’s a great guy, a chum, and fun to be around, but from his interviews he comes off as an arrogant prick who is far too full of himself to think twice before he says something stupid.  Add to that the fact that he plays essentially the same character in every film he’s in and you have two reasons why Wahlberg’s career should have ended when The Funky Bunch parted ways.

I’m probably being harsh, but he’s just one of those actors who I never ‘got’ and continue to not ‘get’.

Now, I’m not negating the fact that he has been very good in certain roles.  I consider his performance in ‘I Heart Huckabees’ to be sensational and one of the biggest snubs in Fisti Awards history (more on that in another post) and I feel that he was exceptional in ‘Boogie Nights’, but even reflection on that performance highlights the lack of range in Wahlberg’s acting.

So here’s my challenge; watch five Mark Wahlberg performances back to back and tell me I’m wrong.  Tell me that he doesn’t use the same mannerisms, same accent, same overall approach to each character.  Tell me that he doesn’t play the hotheaded Boston wise guy in every movie.  Tell me that he doesn’t play himself.  Prove me wrong and I’ll be happy, because I hate hating on someone without merit, but Wahlberg just seems ripe for my hatred.  Even his joke of an Oscar nomination stems from a variation of the SAME PERFORMANCE HE GIVES IN EVERY MOVIE!

Maybe the world loves him because they know he could have single handedly prevented 9/11 from ever happening.


Friday, January 18, 2013

Reuniting of the out of touch...


Early in his career, the name Brian De Palma meant something different than it does now.  Same can be said for the name Al Pacino.  You heard those names and your ears perked up because you wanted to see whatever movie they were involved in.  For some (loyal fans) the meanings have not changed (although I hope no one really wanted to see Jack and Jill), but for the masses those names carry a different weight; a lighter weight.  Al Pacino has been doing the same thing (phoning it in) for nearly two decades now and De Palma has been making glorified smut for nearly as long.  It seems as if these two individuals have lost their way.  

They are teaming up for a third time to tackle a very interesting subject (not only that the subject itself is interesting but that the fact they want to tackle it is interesting).  Yes, they are teaming up to make a film about Joe Paterno.  I'm not sure why they want to go there right now, but they do.  For those of you wondering why that name is significant, remember that Paterno was the Penn State football coach who was aware and hid the fact that Sandusky was molesting kids.  

I'm glad the focus of the film isn't Sandusky (I don't want to see another film where child molesters are humanized), and I actually think that this premise has promise, but I'm just hoping that these two can get their act together in time.  I'm more worried about Pacino.  De Palma has visual style and individuality that could lend itself to material with strength.  My issues with De Palma usually lie in the material he chooses, so if the script is etched out with enough depth of character, I can see him making this his own.  Pacino, on the other hand, needs to reign it in here.  I'm just wondering if he'll be yelling throughout 90% of the film, which is what he likes to do now.  Paterno is a very different character than the one he's used to playing as of late, so this will be a stretch for him.  If he can pull this off, maybe he'll get his show back in the Oscar limelight like his buddy De Niro did this year.

I honestly would have rather seen De Niro get the role here than Pacino, despite the fact that Pacino is a better fit physically, although honestly they should have tracked down Joe Pesci for the role.


We'll see what happens.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Poster Break: Carrie


What the hell is this mess?  I mean, how can you mess something up so drastically?  The look on Moore's face is ridiculous, and the lines on her mouth...I mean, she looks like a really bad painting.  Holy crap, she looks like this:


The most embarrassing thing is that this is coming off the coattails of one of the greatest movie posters to come out this year...and it's for the same film!!!


I just...I just can't...

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Globe winners, and thoughts...


So, I was out tonight and didn't get to watch these live.  In fact, I just finished them.  Wow!  Talk about some shocking wins (these are the Globes, so we can't take them too seriously) and MY GOD is Supporting Actor still a complete WTF.  Anyways, here are my thoughts on the night.
The Hosts:
Please let them host EVERYTHING!
 Supporting Actor:
What is going on here?  Oscar night will be a nail biter!

 Lead Actress (Comedy):
Yes, you did beat Meryl Streep!  Great humor, great speech...I was totally against you but you won me over!
 Original Song:
Stop hating Swift, Adele is ALL ABOUT THAT OSCAR!!!
 Original Score:
Great win!  Love Danna's work so I couldn't be more pleased!
 Animated Film:
That shit was lazy...
 Screenplay:
Damn shock is right!
 Supporting Actress:
So fucking deserved...win it all, but please stop with the embarrassing speeches!
 Foreign Film:
LOVE THIS MAN!  So humble, so articulate and so deserving!  Get that Oscar!
Best Picture (Musical):
Momentum bitches!  LOL, not really, but this was pretty awesome!
 Lead Actor (Musical):
Deserved, despite the naysayers.  Heartfelt speech.  Too little too late?
 Director:
I expected this, but seriously...this year is fucking weird!
 Lead Actress (Drama):
She wants that Oscar BAD!!!  Lather on the tears and empowering speech while JLaw jokes her way to an Oscar.
 Lead Actor (Drama):
Anyone else bored with this inevitability? 
 Best Picture (Drama):
Argo should be the Oscar frontrunner...but it's not.

Predict the Globes...


Tonight is the night!  The Golden Globes will light up our evening by handing out awards to people not nominated for Oscar and we'll lose our shit because that means that predicting the Oscar winners is going to get harder and harder.  Alas, here are my last minute predictions (sort of what I've been thinking for a while, regardless of Oscar nominations Tuesday).  The thing is, these winners were voted on before Oscar made their announcement, so the Globes didn't have a chance to try and 'predict the Oscars' here...they had to vote blindly and then hope they got it right.  Chances are, they didn't (Affleck and DiCaprio should be winning tonight with no chance of winning an Oscar).

Here's what I'm thinking:

Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Argo
Alternate: Life of Pi

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Les Miserables
Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Alternate: Phoenix/The Master

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Jackman/Les Miserables
Alternate: Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Alternate: Watts/The Impossible

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Streep/Hope Springs

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: DiCaprio/Django Unchained
Alternate: Jones/Lincoln

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: Hathaway/Les Miserables
Alternate: Field/Lincoln

Best Director 
Winner: Affleck/Argo
Alternate: Lee/Life of Pi

Best Screenplay 
Winner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Lincoln

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Wreck-it Ralph
Alternate: Frankenweenie

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Amour
Alternate: The Intouchables

Best Original Score
Winner: Life of Pi
Alternate: Lincoln

Best Original Song
Winner: Skyfall/Skyfall
Alternate: Suddenly/Les Miserables

Friday, January 11, 2013

Fisti Awards Update


Just an update to let you know that I've wrapped up the aural categories for 1991, 2009 and 2011.  Check them out and let me know what you think!  This wraps up those years.  I'm taking a short break while I indulge in some 1992 films I've yet to see (and some I need to re-see) and of course I still have a ton of films from 2012 to see before I can even contemplate those awards.  But, I've finished an entire decade!  The aughts are complete so feel free to browse them all and let me know what you think collectively.  I'd love to hear your thoughts on previous years as well.  After the Oscars I think I'll look back on my awards for the aughts and re-evaluate them.  Then I'll post some thoughts on my favorite wins, my favorite nominations and my biggest mistakes (who did I snub?)

Mourning the loss of Oscar dreams: Ben Affleck's awkward Awards Season

What the fuck just happened?


I just wanted to take a minute to contemplate Ben Affleck’s pain in accepting the award for Best Director last night.  I know that winning an award is a great achievement, especially in the Directing category, but what an awkward night for someone like Affleck, who finds out early in the morning he has no shot at winning the Oscar (because he wasn’t even nominated) but then winds up winning the BFCA for direction, and his film  wins for Best Picture. 

Talk about a bittersweet moment. 

This really should have been the beginning of Affleck’s (and Argo’s) awards steamroll.  I said a few weeks ago (and have somewhat been saying all season) that Argo was our frontrunner in both categories.  It just seemed too perfect.  It was a fun film about Hollywood that was also a biopic that was also critically and commercially a hit that was also directed by actor turned director Ben Affleck, Oscar winner and beloved actor ‘all grown up’.  It was his time, and the industry knew it.  Things looked to be switching sides for Affleck and all the attention was thrust on Lincoln and then Zero Dark Thirty but in recent weeks it became clear that Argo was climbing back up to the top; winning slew of critics’ awards and then surprising in a few categories with BAFTA when Spielberg was snubbed. 

Then, yesterday morning happened and it basically killed Argo’s chances of winning anything. 

I saw it coming, but I don't think you did!

Here’s the sad thing (for Affleck); I think his winning streak isn’t over.  Sunday night he’ll win the Globe rather easily and I even think he’ll take the BAFTA.  I wouldn’t even been entirely shocked if his cast wins the SAG, and to be honest, I have a feeling the DGA might be his as well.  This is certainly turning into the weirdest Oscar year in history.  Since when has the directing frontrunner been snubbed the Oscar nomination? 

Like, never. 

Sad Eyes
And this brings me back to Affleck.  You could see it in his demeanor last night.  Sure, he was elated that his film won and that he won, but you could read the shock and awkward disbelief in not only his face but even the presenters faces as they read the name on the envelope.  When Affleck wins the Globe Sunday, I hope he doesn’t appear so bitter (he tried hard, and he made me laugh last night, but there was no denying that he was sour). 

Now, I have not seen Argo so I can’t even say whether or not Affleck was deserving, but I will say that I’ve been rooting for him all season.  I like him.  I’ve never really been enamored by his acting and I don’t love either of the films I have seen that he’s directed, but as a person I like him.  I was happy for him because this seemed like HIS year, and so despite the fact that Haneke and Zeitlin nominations made me literally jump out of my seat and yell “YES!!!” I immediately sat back down to the realization that the weirdest thing in Oscar history just happened. 

Oh, and the BFCA winners have been added to the Awards Tally Page.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Oscar Nominees are here!



Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I correctly predicted eight of these.  I didn’t see Amour coming, although after the showing it had with BAFTA I should have expected it and I saw a lot of people changing out their predictions last night to include it.  It really has survived the year, gaining momentum at the right times.  I have yet to see it, but these major awards for Haneke, who is one of my favorite film makers of ALL TIME, makes me a very happy boy this morning.  This is one of those strange mornings where it doesn’t matter that I got a lot of these predictions wrong, because the surprises were so AMAZING!

As far as a winner is concerned, it would look like Lincoln is set to win this.  It received the really important nominations, whereas it’s real competitors did not (we’ll get to that in a minute), but I’m calling a shock come Oscar morning.  In fact, there are three films that over performed and I think that one of them could surprise. 

The first is Amour.  Amour wasn’t really expected to get anything other than Foreign Language Film and a possible screenplay nom.  Instead, it got in with Best Picture, Director (yup) and Actress (I’m getting ahead of myself, I know) and so it really has a passionate following.  If it weren’t a lock for Foreign Language, I’d say it would have a sneaking chance at the Oscar.  Right now, I don’t think it’ll win, but it shouldn’t be counted out.

The second is Beasts of the Southern Wild.  WOW!  They really liked this film and gave it four really big nominations, including a shocking one no one expected and that I called early in the year as a lock and eventually gave up on (yes, we’re talking about the most deserved nomination of the day…Zeitlin).  Could this little film that could actually pull out a surprise win in Best Picture.  It even feels like the type of passion film that could win without winning anything else.

But then we have Silver Linings Playbook, which over performed in a way I never saw coming.  In fact, if I had to predict the Oscar winners RIGHT.THIS.SECOND I would say that this film was going to win.


Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook
Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Jackman/Les Miserables
Phoenix/The Master
Washington/Flight

I predicted this category correctly.  I had a feeling that the absolute death of buzz for The Sessions wouldn’t bode well for Hawkes.  With the Hooper snub, I have a feeling that Jackman is no longer the threat to DDL’s inevitable win.  I’d say that the only chance DDL has of being dethroned would be if Silver Linings Playbook does a sweep or if Phoenix has enough passion behind him to catapult him in front.  The Master under performed and yet all three actors got in, so there is passion for it on that front.



Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Riva/Amour
Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild
Watts/The Impossible

I botched this.  I thought Cotillard was a shoo-in and I was holding out hope for Weisz in a category with no clear consensus.  Instead, we get the oldest (Riva) and the youngest (Wallis) Oscar nominees in this category EVER.  That is pretty awesome actually, so I can’t complain.  I think that Lawrence will win this in a cakewalk.  The telling snubs for Zero Dark Thirty certainly show a weakness and Watts was the ONLY nominee from her film.  Riva could upset if momentum shifts into overdrive, but the Academy clearly LOVED Lawrence’s film, and she would be the easiest win for it.


Arkin/Argo
De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
Hoffman/The Master
Jones/Lincoln
Waltz/Django Unchained

Poor DiCaprio.  I was still under the assumption that all he needed was the nomination to WIN the Oscar yesterday, but he was snubbed for the second year in a row after being toted as the frontrunner early on in the year.  He just isn’t having a good streak, is he.  Alas, I got this all sorts of wrong, missing Waltz and Hoffman.  I was stubborn with my ‘there must be a newbie and McGregor looks right’.  I guess that Jones is taking this rather easily, huh? 


Adams/The Master
Field/Lincoln
Hathaway/Les Miserables
Hunt/The Sessions
Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook

This is why I think that Silver Linings Playbook stands a GREAT chance at actually winning the Oscar for Best Picture.  What the hell is Weaver doing here?  Everyone who saw and even loved the film has mentioned that she does NOTHING in it.  She doesn’t even have an Oscar clip.  Why was she nominated?  I’ll tell you why…it’s because the people who loved the film want it to win everything, and that shows the kind of support a little film like this needs to defeat a Goliath like Lincoln.  But, speaking of the category in question, there is no question that Hathaway will take this Oscar in a cakewalk.  The easiest Oscar to predict of the whole lot!


Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

I’m so happy that Pirates! made it in!  It was one of my favorite experiences in film this year, such an unexpected surprise in comedic depth, and I really thought it had ZERO chances at getting in.  I really have no clue as to who will win this.  The consensus is split between Frankenweenie, Wrack-it Ralph and ParaNorman, so I’m at a loss.  With the sudden surge of momentum, I think ParaNorman is going to pull off the win.


Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

I hope to god that Deakins gets the win here over Life of Pi, but my pessimistic mind is telling me that Pi has this in the bag.  Still, I’m staying optimistic and predicting a Deakins win here, finally!  He’s owed bitches!


Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

I’m shocked that both Snow White films made it in here.  I didn’t see that coming.  I really thought Django had a shot here, but whatever.  I think that Anna Karenina is taking this, with Les Miserables as the possible spoiler.


Haneke/Amour
Lee/Life of Pi
O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook
Spielberg/Lincoln
Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild

This category is a GIGANTIC WHAT.THE.FUCK at this point.  I mean, if there were ever two LOCKS alongside Spielberg for the nomination, they were Bigelow and Affleck.  They were winning everything left and right and were nominated everywhere, even at BAFTA where Spielberg was snubbed.  Instead, they BOTH get the shaft in favor of Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin.  How did that happen?  Haneke finally being nominated, film unseen, is the greatest thing to ever happen in all the years I’ve been Oscar watching, and Zeitlin may be the most deserved nomination of the day, from what I’ve seen.  He anchored that film and I’m so fricking overjoyed that he’s an Oscar nominee.  Can you imagine the expression on his face when the announcement was made, if he even bothered to watch?  I mean, he went from nearly zero mentions all season to getting one of the biggest honors you can imagine.  I’m so happy for him!

As for a winner, my mind is telling me that things are looking good for O. Russell and an upset here.


5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

I never know who is going to win this and there are always surprises unless a clear consensus is formed throughout awards season…maybe How to Survive a Plague.  I hear lots of great things about that one.


Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I originally thought that Argo had this one locked up, and I guess it could still snag it, even without the added support of a Director nomination, but maybe Lincoln will take it, or Life of Pi.  Right now I’m sticking with Argo, because it seems flashy and they love flashy, even if they don’t award flashy anywhere else.


Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch

I laughed my ass off when The Intouchables was snubbed here.  I mean, Weinstein’s big horse in the race here and the largely assumed winner in this category pre-nominations is completely SNUBBED paving the way for an easy win for Amour.  YAY!!!


Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

So happy for the VERY deserved Les Miserables nomination here (perfect makeup throughout!) and I’m shocked that Lincoln missed and Hitchcock, which is largely mocked for the prosthetics on Hopkins face, was nominated.  Alas, I think Les Miserables can, and should, take this.


Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Very surprised with the Skyfall nomination, but happy about it I guess.  I’m not sure who is going to take this, but I expect Life of Pi to snag it in the end.  Danna’s work was beautiful and very central to the emotional impact of the film.  I’d say it should be an easy win, but I have a feeling something like Lincoln could upset in a sweep.


Before My Time/Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs a Friend/Ted
Pi’s Lullaby/Life of Pi
Skyfall/Skyfall
Suddenly/Les Miserables

Proving once again that the music branch is insane, this category is a list of WTF mixed in with the two frontrunners who have appeared everywhere.  Where is Brave?  What happened to that song from Act of Valor that was sneaking up into everyone’s predictions?  Who has ever heard of the film Chasing Ice?  LOL at Seth MacFarlane being an Oscar nominee on the same night he hosts!  I think that Skyfall could actually pull this off, but that might be too cool…right?


Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Les Miserables should and will win this, rather easily I think.


Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty


Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

A lot of times they give both of these awards to the same film, but I have a feeling that Les Miserables will win the Mixing Oscar, so that leaves someone else to snag Editing.  Maybe Argo, or Life of Pi.


The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

As if there is a question over what will win this.  Life of Pi may not be one of my favorites of the year, but it deserves this win!

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

I predicted this 100% also, and I still think that Lincoln is going to take this, especially now that Argo was snubbed in favorable categories.


Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Poor PTA.  I mean, The Master really got the shut out everywhere except acting categories, and for Flight?  I know that logic would say that Zero Dark Thirty is going to take this, I think that the support for Amour is going to lead Haneke to an Oscar and I think that this is where he’s going to win it.  Sure, his COUNTRY will win the Foreign Film Award, but Haneke needs to take something home, and this may be the ONLY chance for that to happen.  Yeah, I totally think Amour is winning this.

So that’s all for now.  I’ll update the sidebar later to show the Oscar nominees.  So exciting, and overall I’m pretty impressed with this year’s nominees!