I'm so late to this party! I still wanted to chime in with my thoughts on these and the BFCA nominations. I started here and I'll get to the BFCA noms tomorrow. So, here are the nominations and my thoughts on them...
Also, don't forget to check out the Awards Tally Page, where all of these noms (as well as all the others) are being compiled for prognosticating purposes.
BEST PICTURE ~ DRAMA
12 Years a Slave
Thoughts: I don’t think Rush has a shot of repeating with Oscar, but Philomena very well could. The Globes has a tendency of fawning all over Weinstein though, and none of his films are doing really well lately, so I’m thinking that only three of these are going to move over to Oscar. As we are all aware, at this point it really looks like 12 Years a Slave and Gravity will be duking it out for the win.
BEST PICTURE ~ COMEDY/MUSICAL
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Thoughts: This year has been really strong in this category and even tighter, to be honest. I’m really shocked to see August miss here, and I had this feeling we might see Enough Said pop up, but instead they went all out with the Oscar contenders. In fact, this may be the first year where we see ALL five of the Comedy/Musical nominees transfer over to Oscar while Drama goes with…three? While the critics are loving Her, I have a feeling that American Hustle is taking this.
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Wind Rises
Thoughts: Blue is the Warmest Color will win here, which means that yet another award is going to a film that CANNOT win the Oscar. I really have a feeling that this film is going to pop up somewhere come Oscar morning, but where?
Despicable Me 2
Thoughts: Anyone else completely baffled at the Monsters University snub here? I mean, I prefer two of these films to it, and in a way I kind of prefer The Croods even if it isn’t a better film (or is it), but I really thought it was like the second best bet here, and it wound up being snubbed here. I still think it’s getting the Oscar nomination, but it hasn’t a shot at a win anymore. The power of Pixar is not here this year.
Alfonso Cuarón / Gravity
Paul Greengrass / Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen / 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne / Nebraska
David O. Russell / American Hustle
Thoughts: I expect Payne and Scorsese to swap places come Oscar night, but other than that this seems to be shaping up into a consensus here. I could see Greengrass missing, if love for Captain Phillips wanes, but it’s been doing rather well as of late, so I can see him making it (and he’s deserving). Does this mean Coogler is out?
12 Years a Slave
Thoughts: The Globes have always combined their screenplay award, which I don’t get, but whatever. Her could win this, but I have a feeling that they are going to either hand this to American Hustle or 12 Years a Slave in a way of predicting to Oscars.
LEAD ACTRESS ~ DRAMA
Cate Blanchett / Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock / Gravity
Judi Dench / Philomena
Emma Thompson / Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet / Labor Day
Thoughts: I knew that Winslet would show up here. She’s just so Hollywood, and they love that. There was no way they were going to nominate Adele or Brie over her. The rest of this lineup looks like Oscar’s choice. I just wish that something would happen to shake things up a bit.
LEAD ACTOR ~ DRAMA
Chiwetel Ejiofor / 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba / Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks / Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey / Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford / All is Lost
Thoughts: Well, I didn’t expect Elba to show up here, but apparently Mandela is making a splash now, and with the passing of the legend himself there could be a swell of sentiment, but I have a feeling that this is too little too late for him to break through, especially with DiCaprio and Dern on the hunt (and gaining a lot of traction).
LEAD ACTRESS ~ COMEDY/MUSICAL
Amy Adams / American Hustle
Julie Delpy / Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig / Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus / Enough Said
Meryl Streep / August: Osage County
Thoughts: Really, I’m just really happy for Greta Gerwig, who was sensational in Frances Ha. She has absolutely no shot at an Oscar nomination, but she is certainly VERY deserving of the attention. I hope that Streep doesn’t just waltz away with another Globe win, especially in a field where the talent is so high. I wonder if Adams will win this, or if Gerwig can pull off something special.
LEAD ACTOR ~ COMEDY/MUSICAL
Christian Bale / American Hustle
Bruce Dern / Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio / The Wolf Of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac / Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix / Her
Thoughts: I’m disappointed that they snubbed Gandolfini, but when that horrible comment (about not nominating him because he couldn’t attend) surfaced, I should have killed all faith right then and there. I think that DiCaprio walks away with this in a cakewalk, even if Dern winds up closer to an Oscar win. He’s a STAR, and he’s won here before. They’ll jump at the chance to predict a possible Oscar upset with a win here.
Sally Hawkins / Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence / American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o / 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts / August: Osage County
June Squibb / Nebraska
Thoughts: I am FLOORED that Winfrey missed here. I had a feeling that they would go for Hawkins, but I had no idea Winfrey would miss here of all places. It just makes such little sense. I wonder if this could be our actual lineup! I’m so conflicted, because I think that both Winfrey and Johansson have a shot here as well.
Barkhad Abdi / Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl / Rush
Bradley Cooper / American Hustle
Michael Fassbender / 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto / Dallas Buyers Club
Thoughts: Bruhl is having a great showing, which I didn’t expect to happen. He’s still not assure the Oscar nomination, and this lineup is sure for a shakedown with Gandolfini still very much in the race. It looks like this is certainly our pool though. All I know is that four actors are losing to Jared Leto come Oscar night.
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
The Book Thief
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Thoughts: This could be the start of Price’s steamroll to Oscar. Sure, Zimmer could win, but I have a feeling that Gravity is going to rake in these televised awards, and Price’s score is so essential to the mood of the film (I know it has its naysayers, but they are all idiots, obviously). These usually have one or two off from Oscar, and I’m thinking that they will be Mandela and All is Lost, but they could surprise.
Atlas / The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Let It Go / Frozen
Ordinary Love / Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Please Mr. Kennedy / Inside Llewyn Davis
Sweeter Than Fiction / One Chance
Thoughts: I’m really surprised that Young and Beautiful did not get a nomination here. It just felt like the type of song that wins here and misses an Oscar nomination, but maybe Let it Go will just win everything. It should!