Wednesday, October 30, 2013

October Oscar Predictions


I hate my months.  I never have enough time to really dedicate to fleshing out my predictions like I’d like to, and the more time I spend analyzing shit, shit changes in the blink of an eye (a movie moves to next year, a movie jumps back to this year, a trailer is released and the internet goes apeshit crazy over its potential) and so it almost seems like a waste of time to over analyze anything, at least not until the awards are in full swing.  SO, I’m ditching the entire WEEKS WORTH of typing and questioning and discussion I’ve worked around my current predictions and am just going to give you them as they are with no explanation and no alternates.

This is how I see the race at the moment:


Picture:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
The Wolf of Wall Street

Director:
Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
Paul Greengrass/Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell/American Hustle
Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street

Film Editing:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush

Adapted Screenplay:
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

Original Screenplay:
American Hustle
Fruitvale Station
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks

Lead Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips
Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station
Robert Redford/All is Lost

Lead Actress:
Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock/Gravity
Judi Dench/Philomena
Adele Exarchopoulos/Blue is the Warmest Color
Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks

Supporting Actor:
Bradley Cooper/American Hustle
Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini/Enough Said
Jonah Hill/The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actress:
Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
Lupita Nyong’o/12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station
June Squibb/Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey/The Butler

Art Direction/Production Design:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Saving Mr. Banks

Cinematography:
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Costume Design:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Oz: The Great and Powerful
The Wolf of Wall Street

Makeup:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Visual Effects:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Sound Editing:
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Sound Mixing:
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Frozen
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis

Original Score:
12 Years a Slave (Zimmer)
All is Lost (Ebert)
The Book Thief (Williams)
Gravity (Price)
Saving Mr. Banks (Newman)

Original Song:
Frozen Heart / Frozen
Love is an Open Door / Frozen
The Moon Song / Her
You and I Ain’t No More / The Butler
Young and Beautiful / The Great Gatsby

Foreign Film:
Child’s Pose (Romania)
Gloria (Chile)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Past (Iran)
Wajdja (Saudi Arabia)

Animated Film:
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monster’s University

The Wind Rises

10 comments:

  1. I still think The Secret Life of Walter Mitty is going to flop. Maybe not at the box office, but I can't get on board with it as a serious Oscar contender for some reason. I can see Oz the Great and Powerful winning Costume Design. They were pretty fantastic.

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    1. It's just a hunch. It just looks like the feel good holiday hit of the year. Reviews could be the death of it though.

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  2. I honestly have very high hopes for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. While the second trailer made me doubt its chances a little bit, I can still see it as a contender for the reason that you stated about it being a feel good holiday movie. What about Matthew Mcconaughey for Best Actor. I personally think he's a lock for Dallas Buyers Club.

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    1. He's my #6, and he was in my lineup until I saw the recent Wolf of Wall Street trailer. DiCaprio just feels like a perfect fit here. Ejiofor and Redford are the only locks in the category. After that, I think that Hanks is in a very good spot and I'm sure that Weinstein will get at least one of his players in here, and Jordan would be the safest bet. So, McConaughey gets the shaft, but I won't be surprised if he gets in at the expense of Jordan.

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  3. Hmm...I think you need to hold back on some of those Walter Mitty predictions. It definitely won't be nominated for makeup (I don't even remember any significant makeup being used).

    I don't think the reviews will be great (although I kinda loved it), but it could be a surprise contender, so who knows. It's a strange situation because it's directed with a very hip, young style but it's playing much better to older audiences.

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    1. Really? I remember the buzz was all about that Makeup Oscar nom being sewn up when the initial stills of Stiller and Wiig in old age makeup surfaced.

      I know that my Mitty predictions seem out there, but it's my wild card pick at the moment. It just looks like one of those late in the year releases that could get sucked in with a giant swell of love and appreciation that otherwise may have faded had it been released in October.

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    2. That's just a brief scene (like 1 minute at most) and it's actually a scene that people have complained about too. It's definitely not a makeup contender.

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    3. Good to know! I guess I'll be swapping it out for American Hustle next month ;-)

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  4. Good stuff man. I really hope Fruitvale comes back around, but I'm still doubtful. DiCaprio and Jordan getting in over McConaughey? I think only one of those first two gets in at this point.

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    Replies
    1. I think that Lead Actor is a crapshoot right now. There are seriously eight really strong contenders and only 2/3 locks, so anything can happen. I foresee a mighty snub come nomination morning.

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