Tuesday, September 17, 2013

TIFF results, and what they could mean for Oscar...

So, TIFF is over and the word has leaked with regards to their overall rankings in some pretty high profile categories.  Scanning over their lists of films and performances and the ranking so each (thank you very much Indiewire) a few questions have surfaced with regards to Oscar potential for these films and performances.  

First, is 12 Years a Slave really the one to beat?  Yes, I mentioned this the other day when I restructured my Best Picture predictions, but looking at the overwhelming lead it had on all other films, I'm really surprised and taken aback by how far ahead it seems to be in this race.  I honestly don't think it is going to sweep the Oscars, and I even struggle with it winning more than a consolation prize because of the brutal honesty of it all.  It feels like that critic's darling that winds up getting snubbed in favor of something safe, but at the end of the day it feels like the nominations will be the reward.  Still, could this completely take over the critic's awards at year's end?  

It looks like it.

Second, I'm delighted to see James Gandolfini rank so high (#4) in the Supporting Actor lineup.  I'm so excited for this performance, not merely for sentimental reasons (I still can't believe he's gone) but also because he looks so damn charming in the trailer.  I raised the question of his potential in the Oscar race after the trailer dropped, and I stand by that.  Sentiment goes a long way, and LORD KNOWS he's been deserving of Oscar recognition before, so it wouldn't shock me to see a swell of support to get him a posthumous nomination for 'Enough Said'.

My next question is with regard to 'August: Osage County'.  The reviews have been mixed/negative and it really felt like a dying horse with a locked nomination on name only and basically nothing else after that.  I pretty much wrote it off a week ago, holding onto Streep because you just DON'T BET AGAINST HER, but the reaction from TIFF is concerning.  It nearly topped ensemble, and Streep, Cooper, Roberts and Martindale all landed on the acting lists.  This will probably slaughter with SAG.  If that happens, does it mean that I need to factor it into the Oscar Best Picture race?  I've been cold to it all year, to much mocking by others, but then the reviews poured in and I felt justified.

I also want to mention the ranking of Exarchopoulos and Seydoux.  Yes, they didn't top their lists (Seydoux was at #7) and they didn't manage to outrank some performances with smaller praise (Bullock beat out Exarchopoulos) but there is a glimmer of light here.  Word is that those who saw the film in Cannes did NOT vote for the actresses on the TIFF polls and so their ranking ONLY reflects those who saw the film first at TIFF.  With that being the case, Adele's #4 placement is really high and really good for a foreign language performance in the midst of a sea of high profile Hollywood films.

Could she still make a run for it, even with Bullock, Blanchett and Dench pulling the kind of reviews that wins Oscars, and Streep getting nominated once again for being Streep?  I'm doubtful now, unless Amy Adams goes supporting or her film tanks, but hope it still there.

So that's it for my rambling at the moment.  What have you gleaned from the TIFF reactions?   

1 comment:

  1. I've no idea what to make of August: Osage County's chances. It could be Streep and nothing else, or it could get 4 or 5 nods. And I still think Blue is the Warmest Color gets 0 nods, but let's hope I'm wrong.