Monday, September 30, 2013

September Oscar Predictions

Another one bites the dust!
Well, a lot has changed since I started this earlier in the month.  I had initially planned on redoing these gradually throughout the month, once I posted my predictions on Best Picture and Director, but films kept getting pushed off till next year, contenders kept falling to the wayside and new trailers were being released.  It became overwhelming!  Now, here we are at the final day of the month and I'm struggling to throw this list together.  Certain categories are beginning to shape up (Supporting Actor) while others are so up in the air (Best Picture).  Now, 'Wolf of Wall Street' is not officially a 2014 film, but speculation is mounting since it is still not finished and many believe it is being shelved for next year, which is baffling to me considering the hype mounting for the film.

This year is thinning out fast!

Well, without further ado; here are my September predictions:


BEST PICTURE



12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Philomena
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

At the moment, this looks like 12 Years a Slave all the way, but I'm skeptical that the Academy will reward such a film.  The nomination is locked up, because you can't garner those kinds of notices and get snubbed, but AMPAS is notorious for choosing the safe option, and something tells me that the sudden adoration for David O. Russell is going to result in American Hustle being crowned the year's best film, even if it isn't.

DIRECTOR



Ryan Coogler/Fruitvale Station
Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
Ron Howard/Rush
Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell/American Hustle

Right now, Cuaron and McQueen look to be the one's duking it out, but I honestly have thought this to be O. Russell's year for a while now.  He's not a guarantee, because real reviews have not surfaced for his film yet, and by year's end the push behind 12 Years a Slave could be too strong to ignore (and what a huge deal it will be if McQueen becomes the first African American to win Best Director), but something tells me American Hustle is still going to be the one to beat.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Blue is the Warmest Color
Philomena

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle
Fruitvale Station
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

LEAD ACTOR



Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station
Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix/Her
Robert Redford/All is Lost

With reviews for All is Lost waning, and Wolf of Wall Street looking to be moved to 2014, this looks like it could be Ejiofor's to lose.  I'm really excited for this one.  He's a great actor who has finally gotten his due, and he's milking it!  If Her becomes a big deal critically though, Phoenix could be a real threat for the win.

LEAD ACTRESS


Amy Adams/American Hustle
Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench/Philomena
Adele Exarchopoulos/Blue is the Warmest Color
Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

I've seen Blue Jasmine, and Blanchett is a revelation in the film, but something tells me that Dench is going to take this.  I've said since April that Dench feels like a Lead Actress Oscar winner, and the reviews for her film have been far better than expected.  She's in it to win it.  Poor, poor Amy Adams.

SUPPORTING ACTOR



Daniel Bruhl/Rush
Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
Jeremy Renner/American Hustle

I can't decide who is going to take this, because I could see ANY of these five being the actual winner, but something tells me that if American Hustle takes it all, it is going to need an acting win, and as the flashy villain in the film, Renner feels right.  Besides, this would be his third nomination, and despite his limited acting range the Academy seems to like him.  Still, Fassbender, Bruhl and Leto could take this.  They are young (so is Renner), and this would be their first nomination, but DAMN these roles are baity, and their reviews are astonishing.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS



Cameron Diaz/The Counselor
Lupita Nyong’o/12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station
June Squibb/Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Well, this is all coming down to Winfrey vs. Nyong'o and at the end of the day, Weinstein is going to net a win here for the most popular face in the world; Oprah.  I honestly think she's unstoppable at this point.  Nyong'o may have the better reviews in the better film, but she's an unknown face and Oprah is the most famous person still alive.  She's going to campaign like HELL for this, and in the end I think it will pay off.

FILM EDITING

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

COSTUME DESIGN

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Blancanieves
The Great Gatsby
Oz the Great and Powerful

CINEMATOGRAPHY

12 Years a Slave
The Counselor
Gravity
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

PRODUCTION DESIGN

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Monuments Men
Saving Mr. Banks

VISUAL EFFECTS

Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Pacific Rim
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING

American Hustle
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

SOUND EDITING

Captain Phillips
The Counselor
Elysium
Gravity
Rush

SOUND MIXING

All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

ORIGINAL SCORE

12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Gravity
The Monuments Men
Saving Mr. Banks

ORIGINAL SONG

Frozen
The Great Gatsby
Her
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Inside Llewyn Davis

ANIMATED FILM

Epic
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monster’s University
The Wind Rises

FOREIGN FILM
Chile (Gloria)
Denmark (The Hunt)
Germany (Two Lives)
Romania (Child’s Pose)
Saudi Arabia (Wadjida)

12 comments:

  1. Hmm....still holding on strong to Fruitvale Station I see. I'm being cautious right now until Harvey gives it that second wind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I find it funny that people are losing faith in Fruitvale just because people are talking about other movies. The film came out in the middle of the year, and so it's obvious that people will talk up other films, but with reviews like that and obvious social relevance coupled with Weinstein, it won't stay on the back burner for long. When Jordan and Coogler start snagging breakthrough awards, this is going to be Beasts of the Southern Wild 2.0!

      And least I that's what I'm predicting.

      Delete
  2. I hope you're right with most of your predictions. I hope Amy Adams gets an Oscar for something. I don't think it's her year, but when she's gonna win people will give her a standing ovation. At least I hope they do.
    Glad you have faith in my country's film Child's Pose. It was pretty good and I hope we finally get a nomination even if it's not for Cristian Mungiu.
    I don't see anyone but Miyazaki taking the Best Animated Film Oscar. Gravity is a lock for Cinematography too.
    By the way, is Blue is the Warmest Color eligible for other categories? I know it can't be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film but can it get a nomination for other categories?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Blue has a US release of October 25th I believe, which would make it eligible everywhere except for Foreign Language Film.

      Delete
  3. I can't see Rush being best picture material, not after reading all of the luke warm reviews. I'd rather Prisoners be there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But Prisoners reviews are dwindling too, and with the way this year is going, a few passionate votes can go a long way, especially if you stand a greater shot in more categories. Rush is lock in quite a few visuals, and is looking good in one above the line category (Supporting Actor), so I'm thinking it'll be enough to get it in Best Picture.

      Delete
  4. I feel like Amy Adams' win might just be getting a lead actress nomination instead of a supporting actress nomination. I've seen the trailer for Philomena and it was amazing. Judi Dench can do no wrong. But I can't help but feel that this is Cate Blanchett's year. I mean it's been a month since I've seen Blue Jasmine and I'm still telling everyone how amazing she was in it. Of course, it might be the same when I see Philomena. Just a thought. Her looks simply amazing and I can see it being a big contender if it gets great reception and I'm really excited for it, Joaquin Phoenix looks spectacular. I still need to see 12 Years a Slave.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, this just doesn't feel like Adams' year, unless she's a revelation in American Hustle. Blanchett could totally win this, and right now she should (from what I've seen...I mean, she's brilliant in the movie), but I just feel like Dench will walk away with it in the end. It'll be a close race though, of that I'm sure.

      Delete
  5. Woah. So you think Rush has a better shot at a Best Picture nod than Captain Phillips? From what I've read, reviews are much stronger for the latter. I'd love to see Her do that well, but I wonder if the Academy will go there.

    By the way, I randomly noticed your Rope review on Amazon, and I rewatched the film. I forgot how much I loved it! It only managed a nod for Stewart, but I'll have to update my ballot. Noticed you loved Giant as well. It tops '56 for me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sometimes I feel late to the party, considering that I rarely have time to read all the reviews and so I was basing my Rush predictions off of earlier ink at the beginning of the month that raved it, but since I posted these, and my prediction was called into question, I looked back and read a few. Now I'm doubtful!

      LOL.

      Well, there is always October for me to put in Captain Phillips and swap out Howard for Greengrass and find room for Tom Hanks. My question is, if Tom Hanks is in in Lead, does he still get in Supporting?

      Delete
    2. And YAY, so glad you found my Amazon page! I review a ton of stuff there (I'm kind of addicted). Do you have an account with reviews too?

      Delete
    3. Yeah, I think Hanks can get both nods, unless an unexpected contender or two emerge in Supporting Actor.

      No, I don't have an Amazon account with reviews. I can barely make myself get some up on the blog lately. ;)

      Delete