I know that not everyone feels this way, but I’m pretty confident that this category is sewn up in the Oprah Winfrey win. I mean, she ‘could’ falter, but at this point I just don’t see it. So for me, it’s all about finding the five actresses who are going to go up against her. Really, aside from the five I’ve chosen, I only see two possibilities, maybe three.
First, I wanted to throw in Rooney Mara based on the reaction to the clips of her for ‘Her’, but also because she’s so luminous in the trailer, but word is she’s only there in flashbacks and that Amy Adams has the substantial role. Next, I dropped Squibb, mainly because I’m losing all faith in the film itself. Still, she got such wonderful ink that she could be the film’s only nomination. Still, for the time being, I’m not betting on it. Then I’m thinking MAYBE Naomie Harris, but the look of that film was so vanilla that I’m thinking it’s Elba or nothing. Still, she’s hot right now and the film is backed by Weinstein, so if she gets to chew enough screen time I could see her factoring in.
For me though, it’s all about these five:
1. Oprah Winfrey/The Butler
Serving up Oprah realness, and snagging enough good notices to get the nomination (which is the only battle I foresee), this American icon is looking like a surefire Oscar winner at this point. Who doesn’t want to see Oprah win an Oscar? AMPAS has been waiting for this chance, trust.
2. Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station
Despite being less effective than Melonie Diaz, it looks like critics have rallied behind the eye-bugging of Octavia Spencer (the weak link in a tremendous film) and I really don’t see her NOT getting nominated at this point. She suffers well enough in the end, and has Oscar clips galore here.
3. Julia Roberts/August: Osage County
Debate will be had as to whether or not she’ll concede to go supporting, but I totally see her cowering in order to get the nod. She’s reportedly great here, and co-lead, so that could play up her chances. I don’t see her winning against Winfrey, but she’ll possibly be her biggest threat, especially if the film is better received than ‘The Butler’ has been.
4. Cameron Diaz/The Counselor
Some call me crazy, but it is time and I think AMPAS knows it. Besides, this spicy villain role is said to be killer, and she has some great monologues as well as one pivotal scene which is said to be win worthy. Couple that with her unbridled sex appeal and the fact that comebacks are always welcome and I think we have a viable contender.
5. Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
She is all sorts of everything in that trailer, and clearly her role has been beefed up to give her more to do. She just won, is on the tip of everyone’s tongue and is set to have another banner year with ‘Catching Fire’ coming out end of year as well. Unless it’s seen as a cameo of sorts or too close to her Oscar win, I see her snagging enough votes to be this year’s returning nominee.