Monday, August 12, 2013

August Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor

This category is getting a complete overall from me.  The bounty of contenders here is rather ridiculous, and they keep growing and coming back and whatnot, so I can see so many differing scenarios that it becomes increasingly hard to put my finger on who is going to nab what.  There have been some new developments, most notably trailers for ‘Saving Mr. Banks’ and resurfaced ink on some other contenders, not to mention that glossy trailer for ‘12 Years a Slave’, which made Fassbender a legit contender.

Here is where I’m struggling.  Is ‘12 Years a Slave’ really going to attract Oscar attention?  I have serious doubts, and when there is doubt there is usually a safer choice that Oscar goes for.  I also wonder on some early contenders like Colin Farrell, since trailer focus seems to be all about Tom Hanks right now, and he is a two time winner, so you know that Oscar loves him.  I’m also wondering whether or not ‘The Monuments Men’ is going to really go home empty in these acting fields.  I don’t mean empty as in ‘wins’ but empty as in nominations, because right now I can’t see any of them nominated (at least not based on the trailer) and yet maybe one of the cast members will ‘Argo’ themselves an Arkin nomination; most probably someone like Bill Murray.

And what of James Gandolfini?  I want to predict him so badly based on the glorious trailer for ‘Enough Said’, and the sentimental edge could play in his favor, but I’m not betting on it right now.

We’ll see what happens at the Globes.

For now, this is what I’m thinking:

Supporting Actor
1.       Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks
He’s playing Walt fucking Disney, and he charms the hell out of that trailer.  Couple that with the fact that he’s having a banner year and is really a Hollywood icon at the top of his game (allegedly) I have a feeling that this could be a very easy nomination for him.

2.       Jonah Hill/The Wolf of Wall Street
He’s making good on that Oscar nomination by not only continuing to be relevant and funny but stretching himself and working with big directors.  You don’t get much bigger than Martin Scorsese.  He also steals every second of the trailer, so I see this being one to watch out for.  Heck, he could even win!

3.       Jeremy Renner/American Hustle
I gave up a little on this film a while back, but the trailer revived my faith in it.  Renner has the flashy supporting role (Cooper is co-lead) and AMPAS has already proven to like him (he’s twice nominated now) so if he delivers the goods he should be an easy nominee here.

4.       Tim Roth/Grace of Monaco
Early ink was VERY good for him, and he’s a previous nominee who is deserving of comeback (his 90’s run was so great).  He’s playing a famous figure in a film produced by Weinstein and standing alongside the luxurious Nicole Kidman.  I’ve been getting ‘My Week With Marilyn’ vibes from this all year.

5.       Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club

He’s not often seen as a great actor, but the transformation he underwent for this film is undeniable and early word is that he’s VERY good here (surprisingly good) and the surprise factor can play in here (look at Hill in 2011).  Add to that the pure bait here (a transgender who dies of AIDS) and you have a HUGE chance of recognition.


  1. Jonah Hill probably has the more substantial role but after the Wolf of Wall Street trailer all I could think was McConaughey is going to run off with the whole movie.

    That said, if I was placing early bets I'd push my chips over to Fassbender.

    1. I hear that McConaughey only has a few small scenes in the film (the most substantial being the one shown in the trailer) and so I have a feeling that it will only give more leeway to his 'Best Actor' campaign for Dallas Buyers Club.

      I want to have more faith in Fassbender. He's one of the best working actors right now and he deserves to be an Academy Award Nominee three times over right now. I just have no faith in the film based on feedback I've read from test screenings. If the film gets anything, I think it will be for Fassbender. It depends on his notices. He is playing the villain, and Oscar loves a villain in this category.

  2. Wouldn't it be crazy if Hill was nominated and actually won?! I don't see Roth and Leto getting in over Fassbender, but if the Academy doesn't go for 12 Years a Slave, then you could be right.