Thursday, August 15, 2013

August Oscar Predictions: Aural Categories


So now we come to the sound categories.  These are incredibly hard to narrow down this early on.  In fact, all of the aural categories are a pain in the ass.  I’m notoriously bad with predicting Sound Editing and Mixing, mostly because I’m not entirely confident I understand that difference enough to pinpoint what films utilize what more, but I have a general idea (mixing having to do with sounds inserting after filming and editing having to do with effects and sounds while shooting). 

So, musicals seem to do well in the Mixing category, so I have a feeling some music centered films could pop up there, and we see more action centered films making it into the Editing category.  The real question is what films are going to land in both categories, since there are usually at least two films that double up.

There are a lot of action films that could make a play in both categories, like ‘Iron Man 3’ (they tend to like the Iron Man movies here), ‘Pacific Rim’, ‘Man of Steel’, ‘Elysium’ and ‘Gravity’ could all factor in to each category.  Animated films have factored in as well, and ‘Frozen’ has the musical angle going for it, while ‘Monsters University’ has so clever sound developments.

I also question whether or not ‘All is Lost’ could really make a play here, or if it will be overshadowed by films like ‘Gravity’.

For now, I’m throwing my bets this way:


Sound Editing
1.       Gravity
2.       Rush
3.       Captain Phillips
4.       Elysium
5.       Man of Steel

Sound Mixing
1.       Gravity
2.       Captain Phillips
3.       Frozen
4.       Inside Llewyn Davis
5.       The Counselor

Now, in the Score category, we have a few names in the pile.  The big thing to remember is that score tends to reflect passion, and passion usually translates into Best Picture nominations, so those are the contenders that we need to consider more closely.  This category also likes to nominate the same people over and over again (Newman and Williams can attest to that).  Still, newbies do pop up when their films are in major contention. 

I’m holding off on predicting ‘American Hustle’ here, mainly because O. Russell films are not generally known for their scores, and I have no idea who is scoring it.  Also, I want to predict Zimmer for ‘12 Years a Slave’, but my general idea of the film’s Oscar chances are preventing me.  I had ‘The Counselor’ here for a while, and I am considering putting ‘Snowpiercer’ in the mix.

But for now, I’m thinking this is our lineup:

Original Score

1.       Gravity (Price)
I think that the score is really going to be key to the atmosphere of the film, and I see it playing a prominent role here, which is going to make it a big player.

2.       Saving Mr. Banks (Newman)
Newman is beloved here, and this film is primed and ready for manipulative orchestral sounds that are going to make a slew of Oscar voters cry their eyes out.

3.       The Monuments Men (Desplat)
Desplat needs an Oscar, and this could be his shot, unless Price completely dominates.  This is an Oscary film (subject wise) and so I totally see him snagging at least a filler nom here.

4.       All is Lost (Ebert)
From what I hear, this score is beautiful and really takes you into the film.  Much like ‘Gravity’, I feel that this is going to play a huge part in the atmosphere of the film so it could be a bit player here as well.

5.       Captain Phillips (Jackman)
After his brilliant score for last year’s ‘Wreck-It Ralph’, I really want Jackman to get an Oscar nomination.  This could be his ticket, considering the pedigree and the fact that this could be on Oscar’s radar this year.

This brings me to Original Song.  This category is usually a clusterfuck.  Who knows what to think at this point?  Right now I’m dropping ‘Monsters University’, since there is no song, and forgetting all faith or hope that ‘Winter’s Tale’ will be an Oscar contender.  I’m picking five since it covers some bases, even though it is possible that some films could double up here.

I’m thinking:

Original Song

1.       Frozen
It’s a Disney musical.  Unless it gets pans and sucks royally, it’s a lock here.

2.       The Butler
This is a Weinstein backed film designed to get Oscars.  It may have to settle for Song and Supporting Actress.

3.       The Great Gatsby
I just don’t know if it will be deemed eligible, but if it is then this should get in considering how prominent it is in the film and how beautiful it is as a song.

4.       Inside Llewyn Davis
There are two original songs here, so one of them should make it if the film makes it into Best Picture.

5.       Her

This is just a wild guess, speculating that the song at the end of the trailer is an original one.  If it is, this could be a contender.

3 comments:

  1. Great job on these pesky categories. From what I hear, "Young and Beautiful" might be ineligible, but I think "Over the Love" still is.

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    1. I'd love for 'Over the Love' to get in, but I fear that 'Young and the Beautiful' is the only one with a shot. Why would it be ineligible? Was it written for another film beforehand? I know that was the issue with 'Come What May' back in 2001 (originally written for 1996's 'Romeo + Juliet')

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    2. Part of "Young and Beautiful" was allegedly written before the film. Not sure if that will lead to anything, but it's food for thought.

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