Friday, June 28, 2013

June Oscar Predictions

Let's do this!
Alright, it’s the end of the month and time for that obligatory predictions recap where I look at the predictions of the month past and tweak them ever so slightly so as to show that I’m paying attention to what the other Oscar bloggers, critics and film festival news has to say.  Yeah, and I’m watching the trailers and reading between the lines and trying to stray away from bias predictions.  Is it working?  My predictions aren’t changing a whole lot from last month, but they are starting to shape up slightly.  Trailers for ‘The Counselor’, ‘Blue Jasmine’ and ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’ have caused those films to either stay right where I expected them to be (I was waning on my heavy predictions for ‘The Counselor’, but was re-energized after that luscious teaser trailer) or move up (yes, I’m on the ‘Wolf’ bandwagon right now).  I also happened to see a few films and that caused me to either doubt their chances entirely (‘The Bling Ring’) or cement my assumptions that they will register quite well (‘Before Midnight’).  I’ve also thrown some wild card faith in our recent Palme winner (if it gets a US release I could see a HUGE push for Oscar love) and have spread ‘All is Lost’ into a few more categories.  Also, the lack of adoration for ‘Monsters University’ (still haven’t seen it yet, but plan to this weekend) has me putting more faith in ‘Frozen’, even though that teaser trailer looked more like ‘Ice Age’ redux than anything else.

Another questionmark came this morning when I heard that SP is debating ‘Foxcatcher’ and what they’re going to do with it.  I’ve had that as a heavy hitter since the beginning of the year (subject/Miller/biopic/Oscar bait to the extreme) and so I was contemplating what to do with this information and whether or not I should trim back the film in my predictions, but I’ve come around to feeling that this is mere speculation and until something concrete is announced, I’m leaving it where it is.  When the film is finished and deemed unworthy to be released this year, then we’ll have our answer.  I still see this as a dark horse this year.

Alas, let’s just get on with it!



Do you see an Oscar, Mr. Clooney?
Best Picture:
All is Lost
American Hustle
Before Midnight
The Counselor
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Monuments Men
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

May Predictions: All is Lost, American Hustle, August: Osage County, Before Midnight, The Counselor, Foxcatcher, Fruitvale Station, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Monuments Men
April Predictions: American Hustle, August: Osage County, The Bling Ring, The Counselor, Foxcatcher, Fruitvale Station, Gravity, Monuments Men, Nebraska, Rush


Cuaron, shooting for Oscar gold...

Director:
George Clooney/Monuments Men
Ryan Coogler/Fruitvale Station
Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street
Ridley Scott/The Counselor

May Predictions: Clooney, Coogler, Cuaron, O. Russell, Scott
April Predictions: Coogler, Cuaron, Howard, O. Russell, Scott


Could a non-Best Picture contender win here again?

Film Editing:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Gravity
Rush
The Wolf of Wall Street

May Predictions: American Hustle, The Counselor, Foxcatcher, Rush, The Wolf of Wall Street
April Predictions: American Hustle, The Bling Ring, The Counselor, Foxcatcher, Rush

 
Will third time be a charm for this beloved trilogy?
Adapted Screenplay:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Blue is the Warmest Color
Monuments Men
The Wolf of Wall Street

May Predictions: August: Osage County, Before Midnight, Foxcatcher, Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street
April Predictions: August: Osage County, The Fifth Estate, Foxcatcher, Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street

Could this topical drama snag Oscar love?
Original Screenplay:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

May Predictions: The Same
April Predictions: American Hustle, The Bling Ring, The Counselor, Fruitvale Station, Nebraska

Could American's former sweetheart be The Counselor's big Oscar win?

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams/American Hustle
Cameron Diaz/The Counselor
Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station
June Squibb/Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey/The Butler

May Predictions: Adams, Diaz, Roberts, Spencer, Squibb
April Predictions: Adams, Diaz, Martindale, Spencer, Winfrey

Reaching for that Oscar...
Supporting Actor:
Javier Bardem/The Counselor
Josh Brolin/Labor Day
Bruce Dern/Nebraska
Jonah Hill/The Wolf of Wall Street
Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher

May Predictions: Brolin, Cooper, Damon, Roth, Tatum
April Predictions: Damon, Farrell, Fassbender, Renner, Tatum

"I WILL WIN MY OSCAR!!!"
Lead Actor:
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station
Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford/All is Lost

May Predictions: The Same
April Predictions: Carell, Dern, DiCaprio, Jordan, McConaughey

Contemplating her Oscar speech...
Lead Actress:
Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
Julie Delpy/Before Midnight
Judi Dench/Philomena
Adele Exarchopoulos/Blue is the Warmest Color
Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

May Predictions: Bullock, Dench, Delpy, Streep, Winslet
April Predictions: Bullock, Dench, Roberts, Streep, Winslet

These costumes have to win, right?
Costume Design:
American Hustle
Grace of Monaco
The Great Gatsby
Oz the Great and Powerful
The Wolf of Wall Street

No changes since April…

What, you haven't heard?  Computer generated cinematography is all the rage!
Cinematography:
The Counselor
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

May Predictions: The Bling Ring, Gravity, The Immigrant, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska
April Predictions: The Bling Ring, The Counselor, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Twelve Years a Slave

We all know Clooney won't rest until his film wins something...
Production Design:
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz the Great and Powerful
Monuments Men
Twelve Years a Slave

May Predictions: The Same
April Predictions: The Butler, The Great Gatsby, Oz the Great and Powerful, Monuments Men, Winter’s Tale

LOL, like anything else stands a chance here...
Visual Effects:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek Into Darkness

May Predictions: The Same
April Predictions: Elysium, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness

Even if this is a flop, it could still win here.
Makeup:
Rush
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek into Darkness

May Predictions: The Same
April Predictions: American Hustle, Foxcatcher, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Not sure if she can hear anything in space, but I have a feeling we'll be hearing this name called on Oscar night.
Sound Editing:
All is Lost
The Counselor
Frozen
Gravity
Rush

May Predictions: Gravity, Man of Steel, Monster’s University, Rush, Star Trek Into Darkness
April Predictions: Elysium, Gravity, Man of Steel, Rush, Winter’s Tale

Sound Mixing:
Captain Philips
Frozen
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

May Predictions: Captain Philips, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Man of Steel, Rush
April Predictions: The Counselor, Elysium, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Rush

Could Desplat win his long overdue Oscar after getting into bed with George Clooney?
Original Score:
All is Lost (Ebert)
Captain Philips (Jackman)
The Counselor (Pemberton)
Gravity (Price)
Monuments Men (Desplat)

May Predictions: Captain Philips, The Counselor, Gravity, Monuments Men, Saving Mr. Banks
April Predictions: The Counselor, Gravity, Monuments Men, Rush, Serena

Could Disney be singing the song of Oscar?
Original Song:
Frozen
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Monster’s University
Winter’s Tale

April & May Predictions: Documentary, The Great Gatsby, Inside Llewyn Davis, Monster’s University, Winter’s Tale

Could Pixar's lackluster reviews mean a leg up for Disney?
Animated Film:
Despicable Me 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
Planes

No changes since April…

Get warmed up to the idea of seeing this, a lot...
Foreign Film:
Argentina
Canada
France
Germany
Japan


No changes since April…

4 comments:

  1. Wow, no August in BP. Ballsy. And, good for you for sticking to your guns with The Counselor. I don't think it's going to happen, but at least you stuck to your horse, while I've been slowing distancing myself from Walter Mitty. Whoops. And Cameron Diaz for that matter. :( One you've seen the movie/read the script, I would like to discuss her chances with you, as it's not a conversation we can properly have until you do so (for more than one reason).

    Anyway, I'm still going with 9 BP nominees. Did you notice you have five entries from Sundance/Cannes? Seems unlikely?

    Regardless, good predictions!

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    1. Yeah, dropping August was probably stupid, but it's only June so I can always put it back next month.

      5 entries from Sundance/Cannes is probably unlikely, and yet they are strong candidates, so maybe not so unlikely. You got to predict alongside the buzz, right?

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  2. I love that you're predicting Blue is the Warmest Color, and I really hope The Wolf of Wall Street becomes all about Leo. He doesn't need an Oscar, but I'd love for him to finally get one.

    Is Dern going supporting? I thought he might, but I wanted to wait until I heard something for sure.

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    1. The Dern prediction was a guess. Lead Actor is just SOOOO crowded this year, and I think he'd have a much easier shot at the win in Supporting. Speculation about his placement was made at Cannes also, so only time will tell, but I have a feeling that with DiCaprio and Redford undoubtedly in Lead, Dern may move to Supporting even if it is fraud.

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