Thursday, May 30, 2013

Write this down: My May Screenplay Predictions

Peace out, bitches!
Screenplays.  This is looking like a stacked year in either category, and straight out of Cannes we got some new contenders and some questionmarks.  I think category placement for both ‘Foxcatcher’ and ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ is being debated loudly right now.  Neither has any source material noted on IMDB and yet both are allegedly adapted screenplays.  For now, I’m treating ‘Foxcatcher’ as adapted, since Wikipedia says it is adapted from memoirs, and I’m keeping ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ in original.  This could all change, but for now I’m thinking it makes sense.


In adapted there is a bounty of options.  ‘Captain Phillips’ is gaining buzz and if this topical film manages to pull major nominations and not just technical ones it could land here.  ‘The Fifth Estate’ has drawn ‘The Social Network’ comparisons thanks to the subject matter, but I’m still skeptical till I see more from it.  ’12 Years a Slave’ could have major pull here if it winds up being an awards contender, and ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’ is still a giant questionmark as to whether or not that CinemaConn buzz was legitimate.

Out of Cannes arose ‘Blue is the Warmest Color’ as a legit contender.  AMPAS has been welcoming to graphic novel adaptations and foreign films before in this category, and if the film gets a proper release giving it eligibility then it could very well become a player, especially if bigger threats diminish to poor reviews or are seen as actor’s films.  I’m also holding out on ‘Labor Day’.  Some who have read the script have said it wasn’t strong enough, but this is Reitman and the Academy likes him, so he could very well make it.

May Predictions:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Foxcatcher
The Monuments Men
The Wolf of Wall Street

April Predictions:
August: Osage County
The Fifth Estate
Foxcatcher
The Monuments Men
The Wolf of Wall Street

Now, with regards to the original screenplays, I think that ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ shot up to the top of the list straight out of Cannes, and with the reviews ‘Nebraska’ got (and the fact that it is Payne) it should be safe for now.  Sure, the reviews weren’t ecstatic, but it won big and Payne is a familiar and well liked director/writer so he should be safe.  After that, there are a slew of dramatic fare that looks very AMPAS friendly.  Films like ‘Saving Mr. Banks’ and ‘Dallas Buyers Club’ looks character driven, which can be really strong here, and Woody Allen is always a contender.  It just depends on how well ‘Blue Jasmine’ is received.  ‘Frances Ha’ may be too indie at the end of the day, and ‘The Past’ could capitalize on the success of ‘A Separation’, but it isn’t going to be the ‘story’ that ‘A Separation’ was, so it most likely will fall to the wayside. 

May Predictions:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

April Predictions:
American Hustle
The Bling Ring
The Counselor
Fruitvale Station
Nebraska

4 comments:

  1. I think I really need to watch Before Sunrise/Sunset/Midnight. I've never seen them, but everyone's been raving about them.

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    1. I'm in the same boat! I should probably check them out before seeing Before Midnight, which I assume I'm going to need to see this year :-D

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    2. WHAAA?! Yes, see them before you see Before Midnight. I'd love to hear your thoughts on them. If I could give away one Oscar, I'd give Delpy, Hawke, and Linklater one for Before Midnight (even though I haven't seen it yet). Really pulling for that film.

      My predictions match yours. I don't think Blue is the Warmest Color has much of a chance with the Academy, but I'd love for them to surprise me.

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    3. Yeah, I agree that it would take a miracle for Blue to be recognized outside of Foreign Film, but those reviews may be just that miracle!

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