Tuesday, May 28, 2013

A technical bombardment (my May Tech Predictions)



In a scramble to actually get the rest of these predictions done, I’m just lumping the techs together.  I know, this is not what I wanted to do, but there is just too much to do this month still, and I’ve only got three days to do it!  This three day weekend didn’t help much, and I’m tied up most of the day Thursday and Friday and won’t really have time to work on these. 

And I still have to revise Director and Best Picture!!!

So, with Cannes out of the way and more light emerging on many of the categories, I’ve decided to simply list my current predictions for the techs.  We can discuss this later.  Next month.  Next revise.  Dear god, this year is really upon us!


Film Editing
As we know, this is usually very flashy and or Best Picture heavy, so expect to see frontrunners taking the lead here.  I’ve lost some faith in ‘The Bling Ring’ and picked up some faith in films like ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’, ‘All is Lost’, ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ and ‘Fruitvale Station’.  I still think ‘Rush’ will be the one to beat here, but I’m wondering just how big a player ‘American Hustle’ (deemed lighter fare) and ‘The Counselor’ (possibly too predictable) will be.

These edits fast enough for you?
May Predictions:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Foxcatcher
Rush
The Wolf of Wall Street

April Predictions:
American Hustle
The Bling Ring
The Counselor
Foxcatcher
Rush

Costume Design

Mere window dressing?
After seeing ‘The Great Gatsby’, I truly believe this is a lock here.  How can it miss?  The film is all about those costumes!  I’m not sure I differ much from last month, to be honest.  Some have thrown out the possibility of ‘The Bling Ring’ being a player here, but I doubt that.  Contemporary costume design only works if it is flashy or the film’s focal point (see ‘The Devil Wears Prada’) and I just don’t see that being the focal point here.

April & May Predictions:
American Hustle
Grace of Monaco
The Great Gatsby
Oz the Great and Powerful
The Wolf of Wall Street

Cinematography

Do we have our winner?
I’ve said since the beginning of the year that ‘Gravity’ was winning here, and I see that happening 100% now.  After that though, it’s really all over the place.  Anything could happen at this point.  I want to hold out hope for ‘The Bling Ring’.  Coppola’s films are always beautifully shot, and Savides death may play a role in sympathetic votes.  ‘Nebraska’ could make a play (they love black and white films) and the Coen Brothers always have interestingly shot films. 

May Predictions:
The Bling Ring
Gravity
Nebraska
The Immigrant
Inside Llewyn Davis

April Predictions:
The Bling Ring
The Counselor
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Twelve Years a Slave

Production Design

Will thy be forgotten?
All my wild card faith in technical support for ‘Winter’s Tale’ is waning.  No one is talking about it, and so for that I’m assuming that it will not be the giant tech force I assumed it would be.  That, and wishful thinking has a way of clouding judgment.  That being said, I’m curious with how this category pans out.  I’m stripping out ‘The Butler’ as well, since I am struggling to see that unintentionally hilarious trailer for the film giving confidence to anyone of the film’s Oscar chances.

May Predictions:
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz the Great and Powerful
The Monuments Men

April Predictions:
The Butler
The Great Gatsby
Oz the Great and Powerful
The Monuments Men
Winter’s Tale

Visual Effects

Will redundancy of visuals bring this ship down?
They don’t always ride the heavy effects train completely into town.  Sure, it does make a serious dent in the category, but there is usually at least one film that isn’t completely owned by explosions.  So, with that in mind and the current upswing in buzz for films like ‘All is Lost’ and ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’ (which was likened to ‘Life of Pi’) I’m debating on stripping out some of these explosive films for more subtle ones.  Still, it’s hard to do that since these five seem pretty impactful, visually, but I assume that something like ‘Elysium’ could fail unless it makes a major splash with critics.

May Predictions:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek into Darkness

April Predictions:
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
Star Trek into Darkness

Sound Editing

Oscar; do you read me?
May Predictions:
Gravity
Man of Steel
Monster’s University
Rush
Star Trek Into Darkness

April Predictions:
Elysium
Gravity
Man of Steel
Rush
Winter’s Tale

Sound Mixing
May Predictions:
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Man of Steel
Rush

April Predictions:
The Counselor
Elysium
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

Original Score
This will be an ever changing prediction.  I still feel like Gravity is going to make it here.  It seems like the type of film that will rely heavily on the scoring to create the atmosphere of the film.  Now that more names are surfacing with regard to their envolvment with the respective films, it is easier to get an idea of who will be in play simply based on their Oscar track record.  Names like Zimmer and Desplat, Newman and Horner instantly get notice because they are nominated for a lot of their work.  I’m shaking things up here a bit.

Are we making beautiful music this year?
May Predictions:
Captain Phillips (Jackman)
The Counselor (Pemberton)
Gravity (Price)
The Monuments Men (Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Newman)

April Predictions:
The Counselor
Gravity
The Monuments Men
Rush
Serena

Original Song
Who the fuck knows?  For now I’m just sticking it out with what I’ve got until more surfaces.

Sing, bitch!
April & May Predictions:
Documentary
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Monster’s University
Winter’s Tale


I’ll update the Picture (best, foreign, animated) as well as Director later.  For now, this is done!

3 comments:

  1. Nice work again man. I love the look of The Immigrant, but I'm not as confident on a Cinematography nod. I fear you might be right on Winter's Tale. :( Hopefully, it will get a few nods.

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    1. I just want to hear more about Winter's Tale. On a related note, I just cracked the book open yesterday, so hopefully I'll be able to get an idea of it's chances when I'm through with the book.

      The cinematography nod for The Immigrant is just a hunch. The reviews were really good, and Weinstein will be backing it, and when you have good but not great reviews but a distributor packing heat you can wrestle out a nomination in a category where you stand out, and allegedly the cinematography for the film is breathtaking.

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    2. Yeah, that could happen for The Immigrant. I have it in Best Original Score, but Cinematography is probably a more likely nod.

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