So last year I tried to update my predictions as a whole each time (or at least in categorical groups) but that was so time consuming and really gave me a major headache. So, what I thought I’d do is take these categories at my leisure. When I feel like a particular category needs an update, I’ll do just that. You can always reference my latest predictions on the sidebar, and each category will be linked to the latest post regarding my personal predictions.
So, today I wanted to talk a little bit about the Makeup and Hairstyling category. This category can often be hard to predict. They tend to like prosthetics, and films that are heavy in that area (look at recent wins for The Iron Lady and Les Miserables) fare particularly well here. That being said, sometimes they snub the one film that seems unmissable (look at that Lincoln snub) and they do like to shake things up with sci-fi and fantasy mentions (Star Trek and Pans Labyrinth both won Oscars here). With a list so rich of potentials, it’s hard to put a finger on exactly what will be nominated, embraced, heavily predicted and ultimately snubbed.
But let’s try and work this out.
First, let’s take a look at my prediction for April. I had ‘American Hustle’, ‘Foxcatcher’ and ‘The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug’ as my predicted three. My initial thoughts here (last month at least) were that ‘Foxcatcher’ was going to walk away with this on the strength of the lead star and his transformation, especially if Carell would up being the frontrunner in Lead Actor. Then I figured ‘The Hobbit’ was getting that token ‘monster movie makeup’ nomination that everyone saw coming and ‘American Hustle’ was going to sneak in with a filler ‘wow you did so much’ nom for making Christian Bale hideous.
First let’s talk ‘The Lord of the Rings’. It isn’t as infallible as one might assume. It has won two Oscars in this category, but it was completely snubbed in 2002 (weird) and lost last year to ‘Les Miserables’. It’s not like ‘The Hobbit’ itself was met with a great standing ovation. In fact, it is seen as lesser when compared to the previous films and so that could happen this year as well, and while a nomination is not out of the question, with a film ‘Star Trek Into Darkness’ out this year it could have some serious competition for the slot. With only three spots open, it becomes a tighter (and more unpredictable) race. It’s not that they both couldn’t get in, but I find that hard to believe will happen. With other more Oscary films on the horizon, I could easily see them both getting the shaft for showier or more adoring work.
A lot of buzz in this category is circling around two films in particular; ‘Rush’ and ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’. I initially rejected all ideas of ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’ being something of an Oscar setpiece, but the buzz out of CinemaCon was pretty big, and the stills really do instill confidence in this, at least in this particular category. As I mentioned in April, had I seen the trailer for ‘Rush’ before nailing down my predictions, I would have predicted it here. The transformations look exceptional here, and if the film is as big as I am predicting it to be then I really see it landing here as well.
So that knocks out at least two of my April predictions for ‘Rush’ and ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’. The question is, who gets the boot, or better yet, do I just shaft all three and come up with a completely different list.
I mean, look at the list of contenders. We have the aforementioned ‘American Hustle’, ‘Star Trek Into Darkness’, ‘Foxcatcher’, ‘Rush’, ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’ and ‘The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug’ not to mention ‘The Butler’, ‘August: Osage County’, ‘Grace of Monaco’, ‘The Monuments Men’, ‘Carrie’ and ‘Dallas Buyers Club’ as well as already released films like ‘Oz: The Great and Powerful’ and ‘The Great Gatsby’. Any combination of these could pop up. The category is stacked to a ridiculous amount. I could alternate these every month until nominations are announced and still get it wrong.
I think a lot of this falls onto which films get the most recognition with Oscar, and where they get that recognition. If Carell or McConaughey become big frontrunners then they could carry their films in with them since the makeup seems to be a big part of the physical transformations. If ‘American Hustle’ becomes the one to beat, it could dominate in many categories, including this one. Right now, I’m leaning a little towards predicting something like ‘The Monuments Men’ but I have this aching feeling that monster makeup in general needs to be recognized and I’m thinking that ‘Star Trek Into Darkness’ could be our guy.
But this could all change next month.
So, as a recap:
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug