Monday, February 18, 2013

A look back: My Oscar Predictions...

So, I thought it might be fun to revisit my initial Oscar predictions now that we’re a few days away from the big ceremony!  You can find my May predictions (with commentary) here, and if you want to embarrass me you can skew through the few posts I made in April with my early, really dumb predictions, but if you remember I nixed April here so they don’t count.  I’m only going to look at what I do right, since remembering my convictions about categories like Lead Actress and Supporting Actor (where I make that bold statement that predictions don’t matter since Crowe and DiCaprio will duke it out for the gold) will only hurt my ego.  What won’t hurt my ego is gloating over correctly predicting six out of the nine Best Picture nominees and bumping that total up to seven if you include my alternates!

Best Picture:
I correctly predicted Amour, Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi and Lincoln and had Beasts of the Southern Wild in my top fifteen.  By May the buzz over Beasts was in full swing and the Argo trailer had dropped and it had become apparent that it was going to be a major player.

Yes, I was convinced that Les Miserables was winning.

I’m thrilled that I got Haneke correct, and everyone knew Spielberg was happening.  I had both Zeitlin and Lee as alternates, with Zeitlin at #6, and if you recall I was a HUGE Zeitlin supporter throughout the season and was convinced that he was happening up until precursors started and he made it nowhere.  Sadly, I dropped that ball.

Yes, I thought Hooper would win a second in a walk at this point.

Adapted Screenplay:
Whoop whoop, I got Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook correct.  At this point I did not know that Beasts of the Southern Wild was an adapted piece and I had it predicted as an Original alternate.

Original Screenplay:
Amour, Django Unchained and Moonrise Kingdom were all in my top five and Zero Dark Thirty was an alternate for me. 

Lead Actor:
I think all season there were four names that popped up everywhere.  Day-Lewis , Jackman and Phoenix were there as well as Hawkes (I predicted them all at this point) and then you had those who were in camp Washington and those in camp Murray.  I thought Murray was going to win, so you can see what camp I was in.  I was pretty confident that Cooper would NEVER be an Oscar nominee.  Regardless, I had him at like #14 though.

Lead Actress:
My predictions were actually pretty reasonable (Scarlett Johansson aside) but none of them turned out.  I did have Wallis and Lawrence (I had Lawrence predicted in my top five for Supporting Actress) in my top fifteen though.

Supporting Actor:
I don’t even want to talk about this.  Anyways, I got none right, but had Hoffman and Arkin in my top fifteen.

Supporting Actress:
Hathaway has been my prediction for winner all year long.  I also thought Lawrence was going to wind up here too.  That said, I had Adams and Field in my top fifteen.

Film Editing:
Argo and Zero Dark Thirty correct with Lincoln as an alternate.

I had Anna Karenina and Django Unchained as alternates.  Yeah, that’s about all.

Art Direction:
Les Miserables was a prediction with Anna Karenina and Lincoln as alternates.

Costume Design:
I correctly predicted Anna Karenina, Les Miserables and Mirror Mirror here.  In my defense, in May, The Great Gatsby was still supposed to happen so…but I had Lincoln and Snow White and the Huntsman in my top ten.

I had Les Miserables correct and The Hobbit as an alternate.

Visual Effects:
I correctly predicted four of these (The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Prometheus and Snow White and the Huntsman) and then had The Avengers as an alternate.

Sound Editing:
Zero Dark Thirty was the only one I got correct here.  I had Argo and Django Unchained as alternates.

Sound Mixing:
Les Miserables was it for me, with Argo, Life of Pi and Skyfall as alternates.

Original Score:
I got Anna Karenina, Life of Pi and Lincoln correct, with Argo and Skyfall as alternates.

That is 35/88 (that is allowing ten nominees in Best Picture) which is gross and yet I guess not too bad.  How did you do?  I don’t predict Song/Foreign/Documentaries this early on, and I never predict the shorts.  My 2013 predictions will be coming in April.  I’m working on them now.


  1. Love this. I was going to do a similar post, until I noticed that I didn't publish or save a copy of my first predictions last year. I'll definitely be posting my first predictions soon after the Oscars this year. :)

    1. Update: Just found a copy of my June 2012 predictions on an unpublished page in Blogger! I'll post mine shortly.

    2. YAY! I'm heading over there now to check it out :-D