Thursday, January 3, 2013

Updated Oscar Predictions

Alright, I decided to wrap these up.  The sidebar was pretty embarassing (I mean, I didn't even have Zero Dark Thirty in Best Picture).  I may alter these in the next few days leading up to the announcement, since BAFTA and a few of the guilds will be announcing first, but for the time being this is what I'm banking on.  I have some No Guts No Glory here, especially in my holding onto McGregor and predicting a near 'The Master' shut out (although I do predict that Phoenix gets in).  I have not added the Documentary category to the sidebar, although I have predicted it below.  I also don't predict the shorts, so those are not below, although I will predict the winners once the nominees are announced.
So, here they are:

Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

~
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom

Now, I have predicted there will be eight nominees here, but I have ten listed.  I have both The Master and Moonrise Kingdom as possibilities.

Best Directing
Affleck/Argo
Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Hooper/Les Miserables
Lee/Life of Pi
Spielberg/Lincoln

I know that Hooper is an unpopular prediction, but I have a feeling he's getting in with the DGA and despite initial poor reviews, Les Miserables has been doing really well the both the guilds and the public.  I think that P.T. Anderson and David O. Russell are probably the safest bets for alternates at this point, with Tarantino gaining a lot of momentum as well.


Best Actor in a Leading Role
Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook
Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Jackman/Les Miserables
Phoenix/The Master
Washington/Flight

As you can see, I went with Phoenix over Hawkes.  Really, there are no other actors in contention and my thoughts are that passion will carry in Phoenix whereas lack of interest in The Sessions will oust Hawkes.


Best Actress in a Leading Role
Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Cotillard/Rust + Bone
Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Watts/The Impossible
Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea

This is a hard category to predict.  I mean, outside of Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence and Watts we have Mirren, Riva, Wallis and Weisz vying for the last spot.  Logic would say it would have to be Wallis or Riva because a newbie is almost always here, but they have not been doing that wonderfully with the precursors and so I'm left with Mirren who could get the British vote and Weisz who popped up a few places and could garner passion votes.  Right now I'm thinking with my heart and predicting Weisz.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Arkin/Argo
De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
DiCaprio/Django Unchained
Jones/Lincoln
McGregor/The Impossible

These supporting categories are a mess.  Arkin, De Niro and Jones are pretty much locked up and yet I don't see any of them winning.  My money is on DiCaprio, but it's not even a sure thing that he'll be nominated.  Django Unchained has screwed everything up, with Waltz getting such great notices and landing a few places, and people are still talking about Samuel L. Jackson.  I'm stubborn with my McGregor prediction, but this needs a surprise and he could really prove to be just that.


Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Dench/Skyfall
Field/Lincoln
Hathaway/Les Miserables
Hunt/The Sessions
Kidman/The Paperboy

All year the only thing I was certain of was that Anne Hathaway was winning the Oscar.  She still is.  Other than that, this category is a mess as well.  Hunt and Field are happening but then who knows.  The problem is that this category is usually really kind to newbies and yet only Barks and Dowd are in contention and neither is getting the accolades needed to get them in.  Instead we have Smith in a nothing role, Dench in a Bond film, Kidman in a critically panned mess of a film and Amy Adams in a film that everyone seems to want to forget.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

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Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Le Tableau
Wreck-It Ralph
This seems pretty easy to predict.  It's the winner that I'm unsure of.  I think that a case could be made for Frankenweenie, ParaNorman or Wreck-It Ralph at this point.

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
Beyond the Hills
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
A Royal Affair

Best Documentary Feature
Bully
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugarman

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Best Music (Original Score)
Anna Karinina
Argo
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
This is always a hard category to wrap your head around (not as hard as Song, but close) since no one can ever make up their minds and the wealth is usually spread pretty thin all awards season.  There are a few notable exclusions here, such as Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Master, not to mention Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises, both of which have garnered notices this season.  Still, there are usually snubs and surprises, and I'm thinking that Cloud Atlas could surprise here.

Best Music (Original Song)
For You/Act of Valor
Learn Me Right/Brave
Skyfall/Skyfall
Still Alive/Still Alive
Suddenly/Les Miserables

For You is landing everywhere, right?  I don't know, didn't expect that but it could happen.  I think that Skyfall, Suddenly and Learn Me Right are locks and one of them will win.

Best Film Editing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
I'm probably going to kick myself for going with Les Miserables over Silver Linings Playbook, but it just seems right at the moment.


Best Cinematography
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Skyfall

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
I'm calling a Moonrise Kingdom surprise here...

Best Costume Design
Anna Karinina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
A Royal Affair

Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln


Best Sound Mixing
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty


Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus

2 comments:

  1. Nice predictions. Updating mine early next week. Might predict 10 Best Picture nominees, which would be your entire slate. It's possible they all get in, and I'd rather predict too many than too few.

    Should be seeing The Impossible tomorrow, but I think Watts is the film's only chance. Plus, I think Hoffman and Jones are locks in Supporting Actor.

    Also, I'm wondering if a song from Django gets in. Or something like Glen Hansard's song from The Odd Life of Timothy Green. I'm always game for a surprise here.

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    1. Yeah, I could see a surprise in Song, and I'm not sold on Act of Valor showing up there so I could switch things up before they are announced.

      Let me know how Impossible is...I really want to see it. I'm waiting on BAFTA to snub McGregor before I toss him out.

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