Thursday, January 10, 2013

Oscar Nominees are here!



Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I correctly predicted eight of these.  I didn’t see Amour coming, although after the showing it had with BAFTA I should have expected it and I saw a lot of people changing out their predictions last night to include it.  It really has survived the year, gaining momentum at the right times.  I have yet to see it, but these major awards for Haneke, who is one of my favorite film makers of ALL TIME, makes me a very happy boy this morning.  This is one of those strange mornings where it doesn’t matter that I got a lot of these predictions wrong, because the surprises were so AMAZING!

As far as a winner is concerned, it would look like Lincoln is set to win this.  It received the really important nominations, whereas it’s real competitors did not (we’ll get to that in a minute), but I’m calling a shock come Oscar morning.  In fact, there are three films that over performed and I think that one of them could surprise. 

The first is Amour.  Amour wasn’t really expected to get anything other than Foreign Language Film and a possible screenplay nom.  Instead, it got in with Best Picture, Director (yup) and Actress (I’m getting ahead of myself, I know) and so it really has a passionate following.  If it weren’t a lock for Foreign Language, I’d say it would have a sneaking chance at the Oscar.  Right now, I don’t think it’ll win, but it shouldn’t be counted out.

The second is Beasts of the Southern Wild.  WOW!  They really liked this film and gave it four really big nominations, including a shocking one no one expected and that I called early in the year as a lock and eventually gave up on (yes, we’re talking about the most deserved nomination of the day…Zeitlin).  Could this little film that could actually pull out a surprise win in Best Picture.  It even feels like the type of passion film that could win without winning anything else.

But then we have Silver Linings Playbook, which over performed in a way I never saw coming.  In fact, if I had to predict the Oscar winners RIGHT.THIS.SECOND I would say that this film was going to win.


Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook
Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Jackman/Les Miserables
Phoenix/The Master
Washington/Flight

I predicted this category correctly.  I had a feeling that the absolute death of buzz for The Sessions wouldn’t bode well for Hawkes.  With the Hooper snub, I have a feeling that Jackman is no longer the threat to DDL’s inevitable win.  I’d say that the only chance DDL has of being dethroned would be if Silver Linings Playbook does a sweep or if Phoenix has enough passion behind him to catapult him in front.  The Master under performed and yet all three actors got in, so there is passion for it on that front.



Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Riva/Amour
Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild
Watts/The Impossible

I botched this.  I thought Cotillard was a shoo-in and I was holding out hope for Weisz in a category with no clear consensus.  Instead, we get the oldest (Riva) and the youngest (Wallis) Oscar nominees in this category EVER.  That is pretty awesome actually, so I can’t complain.  I think that Lawrence will win this in a cakewalk.  The telling snubs for Zero Dark Thirty certainly show a weakness and Watts was the ONLY nominee from her film.  Riva could upset if momentum shifts into overdrive, but the Academy clearly LOVED Lawrence’s film, and she would be the easiest win for it.


Arkin/Argo
De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
Hoffman/The Master
Jones/Lincoln
Waltz/Django Unchained

Poor DiCaprio.  I was still under the assumption that all he needed was the nomination to WIN the Oscar yesterday, but he was snubbed for the second year in a row after being toted as the frontrunner early on in the year.  He just isn’t having a good streak, is he.  Alas, I got this all sorts of wrong, missing Waltz and Hoffman.  I was stubborn with my ‘there must be a newbie and McGregor looks right’.  I guess that Jones is taking this rather easily, huh? 


Adams/The Master
Field/Lincoln
Hathaway/Les Miserables
Hunt/The Sessions
Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook

This is why I think that Silver Linings Playbook stands a GREAT chance at actually winning the Oscar for Best Picture.  What the hell is Weaver doing here?  Everyone who saw and even loved the film has mentioned that she does NOTHING in it.  She doesn’t even have an Oscar clip.  Why was she nominated?  I’ll tell you why…it’s because the people who loved the film want it to win everything, and that shows the kind of support a little film like this needs to defeat a Goliath like Lincoln.  But, speaking of the category in question, there is no question that Hathaway will take this Oscar in a cakewalk.  The easiest Oscar to predict of the whole lot!


Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

I’m so happy that Pirates! made it in!  It was one of my favorite experiences in film this year, such an unexpected surprise in comedic depth, and I really thought it had ZERO chances at getting in.  I really have no clue as to who will win this.  The consensus is split between Frankenweenie, Wrack-it Ralph and ParaNorman, so I’m at a loss.  With the sudden surge of momentum, I think ParaNorman is going to pull off the win.


Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

I hope to god that Deakins gets the win here over Life of Pi, but my pessimistic mind is telling me that Pi has this in the bag.  Still, I’m staying optimistic and predicting a Deakins win here, finally!  He’s owed bitches!


Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

I’m shocked that both Snow White films made it in here.  I didn’t see that coming.  I really thought Django had a shot here, but whatever.  I think that Anna Karenina is taking this, with Les Miserables as the possible spoiler.


Haneke/Amour
Lee/Life of Pi
O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook
Spielberg/Lincoln
Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild

This category is a GIGANTIC WHAT.THE.FUCK at this point.  I mean, if there were ever two LOCKS alongside Spielberg for the nomination, they were Bigelow and Affleck.  They were winning everything left and right and were nominated everywhere, even at BAFTA where Spielberg was snubbed.  Instead, they BOTH get the shaft in favor of Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin.  How did that happen?  Haneke finally being nominated, film unseen, is the greatest thing to ever happen in all the years I’ve been Oscar watching, and Zeitlin may be the most deserved nomination of the day, from what I’ve seen.  He anchored that film and I’m so fricking overjoyed that he’s an Oscar nominee.  Can you imagine the expression on his face when the announcement was made, if he even bothered to watch?  I mean, he went from nearly zero mentions all season to getting one of the biggest honors you can imagine.  I’m so happy for him!

As for a winner, my mind is telling me that things are looking good for O. Russell and an upset here.


5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

I never know who is going to win this and there are always surprises unless a clear consensus is formed throughout awards season…maybe How to Survive a Plague.  I hear lots of great things about that one.


Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I originally thought that Argo had this one locked up, and I guess it could still snag it, even without the added support of a Director nomination, but maybe Lincoln will take it, or Life of Pi.  Right now I’m sticking with Argo, because it seems flashy and they love flashy, even if they don’t award flashy anywhere else.


Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch

I laughed my ass off when The Intouchables was snubbed here.  I mean, Weinstein’s big horse in the race here and the largely assumed winner in this category pre-nominations is completely SNUBBED paving the way for an easy win for Amour.  YAY!!!


Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

So happy for the VERY deserved Les Miserables nomination here (perfect makeup throughout!) and I’m shocked that Lincoln missed and Hitchcock, which is largely mocked for the prosthetics on Hopkins face, was nominated.  Alas, I think Les Miserables can, and should, take this.


Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Very surprised with the Skyfall nomination, but happy about it I guess.  I’m not sure who is going to take this, but I expect Life of Pi to snag it in the end.  Danna’s work was beautiful and very central to the emotional impact of the film.  I’d say it should be an easy win, but I have a feeling something like Lincoln could upset in a sweep.


Before My Time/Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs a Friend/Ted
Pi’s Lullaby/Life of Pi
Skyfall/Skyfall
Suddenly/Les Miserables

Proving once again that the music branch is insane, this category is a list of WTF mixed in with the two frontrunners who have appeared everywhere.  Where is Brave?  What happened to that song from Act of Valor that was sneaking up into everyone’s predictions?  Who has ever heard of the film Chasing Ice?  LOL at Seth MacFarlane being an Oscar nominee on the same night he hosts!  I think that Skyfall could actually pull this off, but that might be too cool…right?


Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Les Miserables should and will win this, rather easily I think.


Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty


Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

A lot of times they give both of these awards to the same film, but I have a feeling that Les Miserables will win the Mixing Oscar, so that leaves someone else to snag Editing.  Maybe Argo, or Life of Pi.


The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

As if there is a question over what will win this.  Life of Pi may not be one of my favorites of the year, but it deserves this win!

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

I predicted this 100% also, and I still think that Lincoln is going to take this, especially now that Argo was snubbed in favorable categories.


Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Poor PTA.  I mean, The Master really got the shut out everywhere except acting categories, and for Flight?  I know that logic would say that Zero Dark Thirty is going to take this, I think that the support for Amour is going to lead Haneke to an Oscar and I think that this is where he’s going to win it.  Sure, his COUNTRY will win the Foreign Film Award, but Haneke needs to take something home, and this may be the ONLY chance for that to happen.  Yeah, I totally think Amour is winning this.

So that’s all for now.  I’ll update the sidebar later to show the Oscar nominees.  So exciting, and overall I’m pretty impressed with this year’s nominees!

1 comment:

  1. These are definitely exciting. I should be catching Zero Dark Thirty and Amour over the weekend, and I can't wait!

    Bummed about some of the notable snubs, but I love that Haneke and Phoenix were nominated. The Les Mis and Skyfall noms are appreciated too.

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