Tuesday, November 27, 2012

The Lead Actor Race: November Thoughts

This category is hilarious because it hasn’t changed since the beginning of the year, outside of one or two actors.  I mean, let’s take a look at this for a minute.  Back in April everyone and their mother was predicting five names:  Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Hugh Jackman, Bill Murray and Joaquin Phoenix.  Yes, Hyde Park on Hudson blanked out and Murray exited from the lineup pretty quickly.  Then he was replaced by Denzel Washington.  Guess what?  Our lineup hasn’t changed since then.  Other than a few people doubting Hawkes and thinking that Cooper is going to get in instead, you have the same five (or I should say the same six) being talking about by everybody.  There was a brief moment when people thought that ‘Hitchcock’ being released was going to mean something for Anthony Hopkins, but that deflated almost as soon as it blew up.  Seriously, there really are no other options at this point.

So this is rather easy.

Cooper:  This is a shock to me, but his reviews are insanely good and this field is so small that getting that Oscar nomination is far from out of reach.  I actually see it happening at this point.  I don’t see him hitting everything.  I think he’ll miss the BAFTA and maybe even the SAG, but Globe, BFCA and Oscar could be calling him.

Day-Lewis:  He’s a lock.  He’s going to hit everywhere and is probably going to win a slew, including the Drama Globe and the BFCA.  I don’t think he’s taking the Oscar and I think he’ll lose some of the more important awards to a certain Tony winning Aussie.

Hawkes:  He’s on shaky ground at this point.  His film isn’t getting the buzz and attention that so many assumed it would, and while his character is baity, his performance is said to be less baity than expected.  I say he gets nominations from SAG, Globe and BFCA, but I’m thinking he misses out on Oscar and BAFTA at this point.

Jackman:  My money is on Jackman for the Oscar.  I also think he’s taking home the SAG, Comedy Globe and the BAFTA.  Seriously, I think he has this on lock down at this point.  He’ll hit all the precursors.

Phoenix:  His antics have hurt him a tad, and then again this field is so small that his reviews are going to carry him in.  I don’t think he misses this, but I also don’t think he has a shot at the win.  I could see him missing the BAFTA at this point, and maybe even the SAG, but BFCA, Globe and Oscar are in his sights.

Washington:  His reviews have been stellar, despite the poor showing for the film itself.  I think he’s going to hit all the marks, much like Day-Lewis and Jackman.  I’m not sure of him winning anything, although some think he could take the SAG.  I just don’t see that happening with Jackman in the mix.

Now, I’ve seen none of these performances, so my ballot is bound to change, but at the moment this is what I’m leaning towards in this particular category.



Bradley Cooper] Hollywood Film Award


  1. I think Cooper might get in over Washington. Don't see Hawkes getting snubbed, but snubs do happen every year...

    From your lineup, I've got Brody, Hiddleston, Neeson, and Piccoli figured out. What's the second actor from?

    Mine right now:

    Tom Hanks, Cloud Atlas
    John Hawkes, The Sessions
    Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Anders Danielsen Lie, Oslo, August 31st
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

    1. It's Michael Fuith from the film Michael. It's not a film I'd recommend to everyone, since the subject matter (he plays a pedophile who keeps a young boy locked up in his basement) can be hard to stomach, but he nails the role in a way that is far from cliched or expected.

    2. Yeah, I would caution people on a film like that too. I might give it a look at some point.