Thursday, October 18, 2012

October Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects

So, let’s talk Visual Effects for a minute.  This category can be fun and often times underwhelming when it comes to an actual winner.  Like a lot of AMPAS categories, you don’t have to be the most deserving to actually snag the Gold Man.  Look at last year’s Hugo.  How did that beat out Planet of the Apes?  How in the world has the entire Harry Potter series gone without a single Oscar here despite delivering time and time again (I’ve yet to see one of the films, but I can tell by the previews that they are worthy nominees).  They also can be a bitch to predict.  Who in the hell saw the Transformer’s loss coming back in ’07?  No one!  Also the Hugo win this past year was rather bizarre.  Like, I think I had it down at #4 on the list.
So this year we are back to wondering just who is going to get mentions.  Last year was stacked with Superhero bait everywhere and yet not one of those films was nominated.  AMPAS isn’t really that friendly to Superhero movies.
So what of The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers?  Could they snag a nomination?
Who will be this year’s Real Steel?  Seriously, how did that get nominated?
In looking at the possibilities, I’m thinking that the only real sure things are the two films vying for bigger Oscar prizes, The Impossible and Life of Pi.  The trailers really sell these visuals and make them staples in this category.  I can’t see a scenario where either misses.  In fact, I think that one of them is going to win.
1)      Life of Pi
2)      The Impossible
Next we have some effects heavy summer films that always blow their load all over the place but wind up being mostly ignored.  Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hunger Games, Amazing Spiderman, Battleship, Total Recall, Dark Shadows.  The list goes on and on.  The Hunger Games was somewhat chastised for the effects, so I don’t see that happening, and the comic like graphics of Dark Shadows should keep it away from this lineup, unless AMPAS keeps those blinders on and votes blindly for Burton.  Also, reviews can matter, and forgettable blockbusters like Battleship and Total Recall, even if deserving (I’ve seen neither, so I can’t weigh in) should automatically be ruled out.  I’m thinking that Snow White and the Huntsman, The Avengers and Prometheus could factor in from this group, and with the prestige behind Prometheus and the previous nominations for BOTH Iron Man films, I’d say that those two will make it over Snow White and the Huntsman, especially since those reviews weren’t the kindest.
3)      The Avengers
4)      Prometheus
I’m dismissing The Hobbit, since it looks ridiculous, and placing my final bet on Cloud Atlas.  I don’t think the film looks good at all, but the visual grandeur of the trailer is undeniable!
5)      Cloud Atlas

One film I'm wondering about is Flight.  Much has been said about the actual plane crash, and if the film proves to be a big player that could easily factor in here since AMPAS does like to nominate more respectable fare here.  I'm not betting on it yet, but I could see it happening.


  1. For the record, I DID predict The Golden Compass to win visual effects that year. I try to make a few bold winner predictions every year, and that year I did so well that I won a free DVD of The Departed in an Oscar contest. :)

    I've got TDKR and The Hobbit getting in over Prometheus and The Impossible. Of course, Flight or The Impossible could get a Hereafter-type nomination.

    1. I just cannot take The Hobbit seriously, and I can't see AMPAS doing so either. They obviously respected the LOTR series enough, but this just looks like a completely different animal.

      And congrats on making that call and winning the contest.

    2. Thanks. I agree on what The Hobbit looks like, but I think it can get in. Of course, the trilogy could be like the Twilight movies - lots of money made, no Oscar love.