Friday, October 12, 2012

October Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor

So now we’ll talk about the Supporting Actor category.  This is, much like last year, a battle of the vets.  I mean, this category is stacked with older actors, all previous nominees (most previous WINNERS) battling over five spots.  Yes, there will be a newbie, because there always is.  Look at last year.  There could have easily been five returning nominees (like this year, all older) but instead they bumped out Brooks (despite the slew of critics wins) for Jonah fucking Hill.  So, there is no way that we’re looking at a lineup of entirely previous nominees, but at least four of them will be.
So now we have to gage just how the race is stacking up.
I think we can pretty easily indicate the two out in front at the moment, thanks to reviews of their performances and the films themselves. 
1)      Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln
2)      Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master
The reviews for Jones have been rather ecstatic, saying that he even steals the show from Day-Lewis and the film’s higher regards are certainly going to play in his favor.  He’s having a big year.  He got great ink for ‘Hope Springs’ and is probably going to wind up a double Golden Globe nominee because of that.  He is a two time previous nominee and a previous WINNER.  This is a weighty piece, a baity biopic that is looking good for a slew of tech noms at this point and even one for Best Picture.  I mean, at this point it looks like he’s going to win.  Hoffman got wonderful reviews as well.  He also won the Volpi Cup, which while not a great indicator awards wise (Fassbender won last year) it does show that this performance is THAT liked.  Besides, he’s co-lead and that often helps in this category (they love category fraud).
Truly, I’m really confident in Russell Crowe.  I know that many are trying to play this off as wishful thinking, but this role is HUGE.  I seriously see no scenario where he fails, especially if ‘Les Miserables’ is as huge as it looks to be.  Crowe is the chief antagonist and is practically co-lead. 
He’s in.
3)      Russell Crowe/Les Miserables
Next we can talk about a few more winners who have garnered good ink.  Alan Arkin is part of an ensemble cast in ‘Argo’.  He’s been singled out by most for his scene stealing performance, and while Goodman has also garnered good ink, it is clear that Arkin is the favorite at the moment.  Robert De Niro is also getting great notices for his performance in ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, many noting this as his best performance in years.  At the moment, I’m not entirely sure which one will get in, but I feel like one of them will, and I’m leaning towards Arkin since he’s ‘Argo’s only shot at an acting nomination, and if it snags a SAG nom, I can’t see it missing here.  I mean, Affleck has a great track record with his actors getting nominated, so I’d say that Arkin is in.
4)      Alan Arkin/Argo
The dark horse here is easily Leonardo DiCaprio, and if ‘Django Unchained’ comes out and surprises the hell out of people then I could see him knocking out Arkin.  What I’m not sold on though is the Academy’s embrace of the character.  It really looks like yet another extension of the same stock Tarantino villain role, and while that sells well with AMPAS, it just won in 2009 and I’m not sure that I believe Wienstien’s confidence.  Right now, I’m leaving him off (and I had him pegged as my winner back in April) simply because everything I see on the film is so underwhelming.  I want to be wowed, but I see a tech horse and that’s all right now.
So then we have the battle of the newbies and there are really only like four options.  John Goodman is hinted at every year but he always fails to make a dent.  Last year he was in two Oscar nominated Best Pictures and yet couldn’t muster any support, not even for ‘The Artist’ which got him great ink.  This year he’s in ‘Argo’ and ‘Flight’ and could get nominated for either or neither.  He’s not singled out as much as Arkin and it is harder for this category to garner two nominees from the same film, so I’d say his best bet would be ‘Flight’, but he doesn’t have a baity role there and could easily be overshadowed by Washington and Reilly.  Then you have Dwight Henry, who got GREAT INK for his debut performance, and we all know that SAG especially loves stuff like this…BUT, ‘Beasts’ is not eligible for SAG and I really think that that is going to be his downfall.  With no SAG and no Globe (they’re Starfuckers, we know this) then I really think that Henry is out right now.

Some have suggested Bruce Willis could make a surprise showing for 'Moonrise Kingdom', and considering he is one of my favorite actors, I'd love to see that happen...but my hopes are not high.
So it comes down to Matthew McConaughey and Ewan McGregor.  They both have great early ink and yet one of them looks like he could McCarthy his way into the top (via critic’s attention) and the other looks like he could get dragged in on the coattails of his film.
So I’m going with McGregor right now.
5)      Ewan McGregor/The Impossible
Could someone else sneak in?  Could we see Jude Law pick up steam, grab a BAFTA nom and get a surprise Oscar nomination?  Could we see someone else from ‘Django’ get notices?  Samuel L. Jackson is said to have a GREAT role it he film.  Right now, this is where I’m at.  What do you think?

2 comments:

  1. The top 4 seem very likely, but I'm starting to think DiCaprio might end up getting in.

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    1. If he does, it'll be at Arkin's expence. There will be at least one new guy. No matter how many years it looks like that won't happen, it always does.

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