Wednesday, September 12, 2012

September Oscar Predictions: Screenplay

Adapted Screenplay:
1)      Argo
2)      Silver Linings Playbook
3)      Lincoln
4)      Beasts of the Southern Wild
5)      Life of Pi


Even before the reviews, Silver Linings Playbook always felt like an Adapted Screenplay nominee to me.  Now if feels like The Descendants and I’m preparing myself to loathe another Oscar behemoth.  Don’t ask me why I think I’ll hate this.  I’m still not entirely sure.  Call it a hunch. 
I’m pretty confident in this list actually.  There are only two other screenplays that I think could factor in.  Les Miserables has been my eternal #6 since the beginning of the year.  I’ve been told I was crazy for predicting Les Miserables as the Best Picture winner all year without a nomination here, but really, a screenplay nomination wouldn’t make sense.  It would be lazy, actually.  The writer’s branch usually goes for films that actually need to be adapted, and there isn’t any of that here.  There was ONE song added, and at this point we don’t know if it is actually in the film or merely sung over credits, and the rest of the film is completely sung (no dialog) and those songs are all from the stage play.  So, barring a complete and total sweep, I see it being snubbed here…and I don’t see that snub as any indication that the film won’t perform well in other categories.
Then you have The Sessions, which could be very dialog driven and if the film over performs (as in, not just an actor’s showcase) then I could see it placing here, especially if Life of Pi disappoints.

Original Screenplay:
1)      The Master
2)      Amour
3)      Seven Psychopaths
4)      Moonrise Kingdom
5)      The Promised Land


This was a tad trickier.  For a year that opened with SO MANY adapted screenplay possibilities, it’s been weeded out rather quickly and we’re left with a slew of original material that could place here.  The funny thing is that original is where they tend to go quirky sometimes and where they can award a film they won’t award elsewhere.  That is why I have Seven Psychopaths and The Promised Land here.  Seven Psychopaths is from previous Oscar nominee (in this category) Martin McDonagh, and his last nomination (for In Bruges) was a wonderful surprise as well.  He has a way with wit and charm that never forsakes grit and depth, so I’m thinking that this could be a fun submission as well.  The Promised Land is from Van Sant and co-written by Oscar winner (in this category) Matt Damon, and while it is a late entry in the Oscar race, it appears to have weight, so I’ll give it some consideration.
My faith in Django was never strong, and it is dwindling as of late.
The other three I’m really confident will be here.  The Master may actually be rewarded here, for AMPAS doesn’t have a problem rewarding the writing of a film they feel is too divisive to give Best Picture to.  In a weak year (how did this happen?) a film as strong as Amour could actually take this.  Think Talk to Her.  That was a surprise win back in ’02, so it isn’t impossible.  Moonrise Kingdom won’t win, but it should be an easy nomination for a film that could become this year’s Midnight in Paris.


  1. Can we lock those Original Screenplay noms in? I really want Affleck and Damon back as nominees. :)

    I don't know about Life of Pi and Lincoln for Adapted. Those two seem like they'll disappoint, but maybe not.

    1. They are certainly poised to, and Lincoln I feel is being over estimated as far as overall impact is concerned (which is why I don't have Spielberg in my directors prediction)...but the overall baitiness of the film may be too much for AMPAS to ignore completely. Adapted Screenplay seems like a filler to me.