Tuesday, September 11, 2012

September Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

I’m going to make this short and sweet.  I tend to overthink these predictions and then spend days and days and weeks and OMG the month is over and I haven’t posted my updated predictions yet.  So, with that horrible track record in mind, I’m not even going to try and list a gazillion potential nominees and then my predicted ballot with reasons for every placement and what have you.
So, now begins my collective Oscar predictions; the September Edition.

1)      Les Miserables
2)      Argo
3)      The Master
4)      Lincoln
5)      Beasts of the Southern Wild
6)      Silver Linings Playbook
7)      Life of Pi
8)      Moonrise Kingdom
9)      Flight
10)   Amour


I’m giving a full list of ten here, but we probably won’t have ten nominees.
After the TIFF reaction, I’m thinking that Argo is going to be our film to beat here.  I really think that it wins this in the end, which would be a way for The Academy to embrace Affleck and show their appreciation for his years of work without having to stoop to giving him an acting award.  Besides, it seems to be a mature film with spunk and style, so I’m happy for him.  I still think that Les Miserables could be a threat, with the whole spectacle of things, but in the end it may be deemed too soon to award Hooper yet again, and Picture/Director splits are pretty rare these days.
The buzz for Silver Linings Playbook is increasing, and this weekend was a total boost for the film as a whole.  It looks like a serious contender, despite my initial bias against it (already noted Monday).  It looks like I must concede to the fact that two films I think look rather ridiculous (Silver Linings Playbook and Flight) are probably in at this point.

Amour is that one film that I really think could make a dent with Oscar, but only time will tell.  It could make Best Picture in a weak year (which this is looking to be) with the raves that it has received.  It is foreign, sure, but Haneke is really respected and this is his most accessible film ever so maybe they will see this as an opportunity to reward him for his years of good work.  I just think that the narrative is ridiculously strong and yet, this is AMPAS and so the odds are sadly against it at this point.  A film who has the odds in its favor would be Lincoln, but it could be seen as stagey and too baity for its own good.  We’ve seen this trend as of late with Oscar.  They aren’t as black and white as they used to be, and maybe Spielberg going overly serious with a biopic isn’t going to be instant Oscar.

What are your thoughts?  Who do you think I should be considering?
I’ll be adding more categories tomorrow and probably finish these predictions on Monday.  Have a long weekend away starting Thursday where the blog will be vacant, so hope to return to lots of comments and discussion!


  1. It looks like it's going to be Argo vs. The Master, but I'm not so sure. Though, it does seem that Argo could be this year's The King's Speech, and The Master could be The Social Network.

    I don't see Flight or The Silver Linings Playbook getting Best Picture nominations, but who knows?

    Also, I'm still nursing the possibility that The Dark Knight Rises comes back around and gets in.

    1. Judgeing from friends I have who have seen the film, The Master isn't winning. It is too polarizing and not what AMPAS would go for, but the reviews suggest it's an easy nomination. I really think it'll be Argo (especially after the TIFF reaction) vs. Les Miserables.

    2. I'm still not convinced on Les Mis, but it could end up with 8 Oscars for all we know. I don't think The Master is winning, but I think it will make a lot of noise with critics groups like The Social Network did.

    3. I totally agree with you on the critical reception of The Master. It is going to be huge there, but in the end I hear that it is really difficult to embrace, and I think that will make it a tough sell for AMPAS.

      Les Miserables could bomb, but I doubt it. The talent involved is ridiculous, and they obviously love Hooper and his style, so I think if he gets it right they'll fawn all over it. It could mark a return for big budget spectacles, so there is that narative too.