Thursday, September 20, 2012

Oscar Updates

Ok, so this week has been crazy with awards news, or film news that can be interpreted as awards news.  I really felt like I needed to do an overhaul on my predictions from last week, and I wasn’t planning on doing that for at least another month.  Still, it’s almost silly not to make some corrections since, well, I’m posting them on the sidebar for all to see.

So, a couple of things I’ve been thinking about this week that I’m going to tweak include a few core movies:
The Impossible, Hitchcock, Intouchables, Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook.
First of all, I think that The Impossible is going to make a bigger impact than initially expected.  The core of this film is a really emotional one and one that I think will resonate hard with voters.  It is a biopic of sorts and is based on a tragedy that is fresh on a lot of people’s minds.  Also, the reviews out of TIFF have been really strong.  I’m thinking that this gets in with Best Picture at the moment, and with the waning possibility of Naomi Watts actually winning the Drama Globe and possibly something as weighty as BAFTA, I say that if the film gets a BP nomination she gets the Oscar and NOT Jennifer Lawrence.  Lawrence’s raves are stronger, for sure, but she is also ONLY 22 and has a slew of baity projects coming up over the next few years.  It is between the two of them, no question, but right now I’m leaning towards Watts, as long as her film gets in.
Hitchcock is currently being switched to a Nov. 23rd release.  This is big news.  I was ready for this to nab a slew of Oscar mentions next year, but with so many thinning fields I see this making a serious splash here as well, especially with the Globes, which I think will eat this up.  I suspect that Scarlett Johansson could be a contender, and Hopkins as well, but most certain is the Makeup Oscar that this will probably win.  Just look at Hopkins! 
I’m back on the Les Mis train.  I said this two posts back and the thought is growing more rapidly as the day progresses.  That clip was amazing.  I pretty much had it up for all the right nominations (no changes there) but my faith in Argo winning has dwindled.  I honestly think that Hooper and company are going to pull a Return of the King style sweep and take EVERYTHING.
Now we come to Supporting Actor, where I’m dropping Goodman from my lineup and ushering in De Niro.  In thinking this over, his narrative is too strong.  He is getting the best reviews he’s had in over a decade, and the kicker is that these reviews are coming from a film that is getting a ton of Oscar buzz.  This isn’t like when he got great ink for Everybody’s Fine but the film was too small and too vanilla to go anywhere.  Silver Lining’s Playbook is going to hit in a big way and the fact that De Niro is a LEGEND is going to play in his favor.  Double  nominees in the Supporting Actor category are few anyways, and I was leaning towards shifting Goodman’s nomination to his Flight performance, for I’ve heard that it is even baitier than the one in Argo, but De Niro sounds like a really safe bet.  I’m convinced he’s getting in with SAG, and if the Actress win shifts in Watt’s favor, I could see Silver Linings Playbook being rewarded here instead.
I also want to speak of Crowe right now.  A lot of people seem to be underestimating him right now, which I find really odd.  Even Nathanial over at The Film Experience went as far as to say that Javert’s arc wasn’t that strong.

Don’t read this if you’ve never seen the stageplay or read the book or just plain don’t know what happens to Javert, but how in the world is his arc not that strong?  He plays the primary antagonist, he is a conflicted villain who seeks an almost unnatural vengeance against the protagonist.  He has one of the shows biggest numbers and most importantly, his character is plagued by a past he won’t admit to (but you can feel it) and ultimately let’s his man go so-to-speak, and then COMMITS SUICIDE!  I’d actually say that his arc is the best in the whole show.  He has the fullest character.  I’d almost say that his nomination is the most assured of all in contention based on the role and the film.  Philip Seymour Hoffman has the reviews and the Volpi Cup, but his film is also extremely divisive and has no shot at a Best Picture win.  Doubt all you want, but Crowe is getting the nomination this year.
Set that gaze on Oscar my's calling you!
Oh yeah, and Intouchables is probably going to WIN the Foreign Language Film Oscar.  I wash my hands of it.  Poor Haneke.  Even if he gets in with the Directors branch (and the Original Screenplay nomination is happening), his film with lose to Intouchables, which has the crowd pleasing narrative going for it in a VERY large way.
So, I’m making the updates and will have the sidebar refreshed probably before you read this.


  1. I considered predicting Watts for the win, but Lawrence seems more likely at the moment.

    While I don't see De Niro winning, he could get nominated.

    I think it's safe to say we both want Crowe to win, but I still have my reservations. And Les Mis sweeping wouldn't bother me, even though I don't see it happening.

    Still undecided on Hitchcock's chances, and The Intouchables will almost certainly win.

    1. Lawrence does VERY MUCH seem like the safest bet at this point, but the season has just begun and the responce to The Impossible seems like it will be huge. It is such an emotional movie, which is something that Silver Linings Playbook is not. If anyone is going to take this fro JLaw, it's going to be Watts.

      De Niro, in my eyes, is locked up for this. He could even win the SAG, which is an award he has yet to win (since it was instituted in 94, after his decline in acting choices). If we get to Oscar with no clear frontrunner (Crowe too disliked, Hoffman's movie to diversive, Argo with no clear standout) then I think he could easily win.

      YES, I want Crowe to win every award for everything because I think he is that perfect, but I know that his chances this year are tight.


    2. It'd be great if Crowe could pull off maybe a Golden Globe and a BAFTA win, before surprising at the Oscars. :)