Tuesday, April 3, 2012

April Supporting Actress Predictions...

In thinking about the lovely ladies in contention for Supporting Actress, I’m certain of one (or should I say two) things…the girls from Les Miserables.  Barks and Hathaway are pretty much assured of a nomination, right?  I mean, such beautifully tailored characters that lend themselves effortlessly to standout attention.  Barks will be that stunning newbie plucked straight from Broadway to reprise her role and this will garner her a lot of attention.  She’ll be that ‘fresh face’ that comes out of nowhere to reap the rewards of her hard work.  Hathaway is another story.  She is a proven draw, she is a stunning beauty, a previous nominee and a respected ‘it girl’ who the Academy really likes.  She also has, arguably, the most memorable character in the film and it is really perfect for Oscar.

Hathaway is winning the Oscar this year!

Anyways, I’m jumping ahead of myself.

1)      Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

2)      Samantha Barks/Les Miserables

3)      Laura Linney/Hyde Park on Hudson

4)      Isla Fisher/The Great Gatsby

5)      Sally Field/Lincoln

6)      Amy Adams/The Master

7)      Annette Bening/Ruby Sparks

8)      Olivia Williams/Hyde Park on Hudson

9)      Alicia Vikander/Anna Karenina

10)   Nicole Kidman/The Paperboy

I said what I wanted to say about the Les Miserables girls.  I mean, really; it’s happening. 

I’m somewhat torn about Laura Linney and Sally Field.  Lincoln could very well be the Daniel Day-Lewis show, and she may get minimal mentions whatsoever, and then again she could Helena Bonham Carter her way to a nomination if Lincoln becomes a King’s Speech sized awards magnet.  Laura Linney is far more ‘due’ than Field, but her film also seems a tad lighter.  I get the impression that Laura Linney is respected, but she’s never going to win an Oscar.  She just makes acting look so effortless, and the Academy doesn’t always respond to that favorably.  I have a feeling that she’ll get swooped into the Murray storm and garner a nomination here, but she won’t stand a chance at winning against Hathaway, who has a role she can really ‘act’ inside.

I’m going out on a limb here and saying that Isla Fisher gets a ‘welcome to the high ranks’ nomination for The Great Gatsby.  I get the impression that we are underestimating this film based on the 1974 film and the fact that it is Baz and he has decided to make this spectacle 3D, but the supporting roles are really juicy, especially Myrtle, and Fisher is a talented actress who has been working hard for the past few years.  Sure, she is basically Amy Adams less respected doppleganger, but this role should stretch her and really give her something to sink her teeth into.

After that, I’m not sure.  Annette Bening is owed an Oscar at this point, but neither of her upcoming projects really seem too baity to me; especially that one with Kristen Wiig, so I decided to place her here for the one by those Sunshine people.  It still sounds rather ‘un-Oscary’, but she is Annette Bening and her lose just two years ago still stings a little.  Supporting Actress is usually VERY kind to newbies, so Olivia Williams could break in after years of solid work and industry respect.  Still, are they going to double up twice in the same category?  Will Linney go lead?  I just get such a Kinsey impression from those stills (maybe it’s her frumpy look) so I can’t see her going lead…Murray is going to own that movie.  Maybe they’ll both be passed up and some unknown like Alicia Vikander will show up.  I’ve not read Anna Karenina, so I don’t know how her role is, but I hear from those who are familiar with it that it is the standout supporting role; so maybe she’ll get dragged into Keira’s awards storm (girl’s gon’ get that).

And then there is the Amy Adams conundrum.  She is in two films that could go over well with AMPAS.  On the Road appears to be her least likely option considering that the supporting female list goes on and on there and that the novel merely brushes up against the female characters, so she probably doesn’t have a lot to work with.  Then there is The Master, which is PTA, and he works wonders with his actors, but those who have read the script say that her character is nothing special.  Like Lincoln, could The Master boil down to the Philip Seymour Hoffman show?  We all know that There Will Be Blood was a one man show, despite stellar work from Paul Dano and Dillon Freasier.  The Master just doesn’t look like an ensemble to me.

Alas, this is only April; so who knows.

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