Monday, June 27, 2011

Updated Supporting Actress Predictions (Oscar 2011)

My June predictions are as follows:

1)      Zoe Caldwell/Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
WHY?:
The role is extremely baity and the film is set to be a big player come Oscar time.  I think that it will garner at least one acting nomination, and this seems like the best bet.  She’s a veteran actress in a role tailor made for Oscar gold.  In fact, I’m going out on an early limb and saying that she nabs the gold this year.

2)      Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
WHY?:
When you factor in the fact that she is Vanessa Redgrave (Hollywood royalty), the incredibly painful losses she’s endured and the fact that she has already racked up some decent praise for the performance it seems like a sure thing.  Nothing is for certain yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s Supporting Actress race bailed down to two vets duking it out for Oscar gold.

3)      Kate Winslet/Carnage
WHY?:
While she just won, she’s also Kate Winslet, and even when she’s subpar she’s still great and winds up getting nominated.  I think that Carnage will be a nice showcase for her talents, and with a seemingly wide open category (I can’t seem to get a handle on this one at all) she seems like a pretty sure bet.  Think Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal sized category fraud, but then again, sometimes that helps.

4)      Viola Davis/The Help
WHY?:
I can’t really get an Oscar feel from this film, but the light airiness of the trailer is cut beautifully by the well rounded feel of Davis, so I’m thinking that the film becomes this year’s Blind Side and nets Davis her second nomination.  She is a great character actress who has been delivering well rounded work for years, so her recent recognition (in 08) should lead way for her to become welcomed back to the nominees circle.  If the film winds up a bigger hit than I intend, she could be a dark horse for the win…but I can’t see that happening unless the film is a big player.

5)      Carey Mulligan/Shame
WHY?:
This is my wild card prediction, and it truly is.  Mulligan is a GREAT actress who was dubbed the next big thing two years ago, and Oscar may be wanting to welcome her back.  The film she’s in seems pretty un-Oscary, but her role seems rather baity and it could potentially be a scene stealer, and if that happens then Oscar may want to single her out for a nomination.  They want to prove their ‘find’ wasn’t accidental (it isn’t, believe me), and the Fassbender goodwill (what a year he’s going to be having) may play in her favor as well.

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6)      Jessica Chastain/The Tree of Life
7)      Naomi Watts/J. Edgar
8)      Judi Dench/My Week With Marilyn
9)      Scarlett Johansson/We Bought a Zoo
10)  Stephanie Szotak/We Bought a Zoo

I was really sure about Jessica Chastain this year, considering the buzz around The Tree of Life and the stills of her were just so splendid, but her year is almost too big (she’s in everything) and maybe her performances will become muddled…and early word on The Tree of Life didn’t single her out like I expected them to.  I want to have faith in a Naomi Watts nomination, mainly because I love her and she is amazing, but she’s been snubbed so many times before, and early word on the script really made this sound like the DiCaprio/Hammer show. 

And what to make of We Bought a Zoo?  I’ve heard NOTHING about this movie, and yet both supporting roles seem pretty baity.  Could they both get in?  Lord knows that Scarlett Johansson is due for a nomination.

And I know that everyone and their mother thinks that The Help is landing the double nod and that it’ll be Octavia Spencer who lands the most votes, but the trailer made her look so one-dimensional.  All I got was ‘token black comedic performance’.  That is all it read.  No depth.

Who knows.

OTHER UPDATED PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
Best Director
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Supporting Actor

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