Monday, June 27, 2011

Updated Supporting Actor Predictions (Oscar 2011)


My Jude prections are as follows:

1)      Kenneth Branagh/My Week With Marilyn
WHY?:
Early word is that he steals the show, and we all know that Branagh’s breed of actor really thrives in performances like the one he has in this film.  He’s also a former nominee who hasn’t been in the game for two decades so he could easily get a nice fat WELCOME BACK nomination.  At the moment he seems like the safest bet for a nomination, and possibly even a win if it is as scene stealing as it’s being touted as.

2)      Christopher Plummer/Beginners
WHY?:
He’s Christopher Plummer and he’s finally being Oscar realized and we all know that the afterglow effect is a good thing.  That, and the film has already been released and he’s already received glowing reviews and it is a role he hasn’t even come close to before.  It’s showy and supposedly a major stretch, and for an actor of his caliber at his age to attempt ‘growth’ is a major bonus point.  From those who have seen the film, most likely he won’t win, but a nomination seems pretty good at this point.

3)      Viggo Mortensen/A Dangerous Method
WHY?:
He works very well with Cronenberg, and he looks outstanding in the trailer (the trailer itself was such a letdown, but he really shown for me).  I’m thinking that if he remains in the lesser category he could easily land his second nomination with a role that is unlike any other he’s had. 

4)      Armie Hammer/J. Edgar
WHY?:
He received a lot of good ink for her two-part performance in last years The Social Network, and this year he’s working with Eastwood in a prestige period biopic where he plays Leonardo DiCaprio’s gay lover.  Early word on the script is that this role is BAITY to the max and some have even said that if this were a female part he’d be a shoe in for the Oscar, so I think that a nomination seems like a decent chance for him at this point.

5)      Christoph Waltz/Carnage
WHY?:
I can’t see Carnage walking away without a single acting nomination since it seems so much like an actors film, and Waltz is a fresh faced winner who many will still remember fondly from his brilliant performance in Inglorious Basterds.  My bet is that if he chews up the scenery like we all know he can, he’s going to walk away with a nomination.  Most likely it’ll be serious category fraud, but then again, isn’t that even a bigger plus for him.

~

6)      Nicolas Bro/War Horse
7)      Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Ides of March
8)      John Hawkes/Martha Marcy May Marlene
9)      Jim Broadbent/The Iron Lady
10)  Tom Hardy/Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

My only real change from April’s predictions is that I swapped out Bro for Hammer.  I haven’t heard much more about War Horse, and my Bro prediction came from VERY early word that Bro had one of the baitier supporting roles; but how baity, and will that bait be enough to propel a relative unknown over bigger names in the cast?  Hoffman is said to have a really great role in The Ides of March, and I feel really stupid for not predicting him, but he already has three nominations and a win and he’s such a hammy actor that I just can’t see him getting nominated every two years.  I mean, I like him and all but isn’t that a bit overkill?

So many are saying that John Hawkes is in, but his role seems so similar (in tone and portrayal) as his Oscar nominated role last year…it just screams redux to me (backwoods creep who plays the guitar).

I’m grasping at straws here…

OTHER UPDATED PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
Best Director
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Supporting Actress

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