Monday, June 27, 2011

Updated Lead Actress Predictions (Oscar 2011)

My June predictions are as follows:

1)      Rooney Mara/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
WHY?:
My expectations may be clouded by my adoration for David Fincher, but this looks primed and ready to rip the Oscar’s apart, and this role is ELECTRIFYING to say the least.  If Mara can take what Rapace did (which was pretty great) and turn it on its head with a more direct and intense direction, I can see her actually winning the damn thing.

2)      Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady
WHY?:
She’s Meryl Streep.  She’s nominated for nearly everything she does.  Oh, and she’s playing a real person in a film that is obviously going to be pimped to no end by Harvey Weinstein.  I think she’s a pretty safe bet.  Everyone is screaming “victory” but I’m not so sure.  She’s going to have some pretty young things with BAITY roles barking at her front door, and recent history has proven that the pretty young thing usually gets the gold.

3)      Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy May Marlene
WHY?:
Critics have seen it and have eaten it up.  She’s this year’s Jennifer Lawrence for sure.  She probably should be higher on the list since her nomination is pretty much written in the stars…I mean, she’s kind of Hollywood royalty, right?  Anyways, I see her nabbing a good number of critics’ awards, and if her film sneaks into the Best Picture ballot, I could see her being a dark horse for the win (or maybe a front and center frontrunner).

4)      Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
WHY?:
She needs an Oscar.  This is a baity role and she is already being heavily talked about as a serious contender; but the distribution issues leave me wondering if this will even happen.  Maybe it’ll be an HBO film (as some have insinuated) but for now I’m leaving her it.  My hopes of her actually winning have diminished almost entirely though.

5)      Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia
WHY?:
You can call me crazy, and many will, but I kind of think this could really happen.  She is a very talented young and beautiful actress who has been serving up steady work for years, and last year she got quite a few remarks for her stunning work in All Good Things.  This is a arthouse film that is far and away removed from her previous efforts directed by a controversial filmmaker who just caused a major stir at Cannes where SHE WON TO ACTRESS AWARD…I mean, come awards season her name will come up and people will talk and she may wind up being a major player.

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6)      Michelle Williams/My Week With Marilyn
7)      Jodie Foster/Carnage
8)      Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin
9)      Felicity Jones/Like Crazy
10)  Keira Knightley/A Dangerous Method

I at one time really thought that Michelle Williams was going to win this thing.  At this point, I don’t think she stands much of a chance at a nomination (early word is that she is severely miscast).  That said, I still have her relatively high beings that no word is official until the film is released, and she does have Weinstein and she is respected and immensely talented.  She won’t win this year (unless early word was entirely wrong) but mediocre performances have been nominated for the Oscar before, so you never know.

Foster could have a great year if Carnage is as good as I want it to be.  It is a film that is going to rest almost entirely on her shoulders and her role is said to be baity, and shes been away from the game for a LONG time, so if sparks fly she may easily make it in, especially if Close’s film is shafted for television and they want to nominate a more seasoned actress alongside a slew of young talents.

Knightley looks gross in the trailer for A Dangerous Method, but that could work in her favor if she gets critics to fare on the ‘she really stretched herself’ and ‘she GOES there’ side.  I hope the performance is better than the trailer eludes, but I don’t see how it could be.

The accent…the screaming…the…yuckiness.

That’s it for now…

OTHER UPDATED PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
Best Director
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

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