Monday, June 27, 2011

Updated Lead Actor Prediction (Oscar 2011)

My June predictions are as follows:

1)      Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
WHY?:
When you factor in the majors here, it really does look like the planets aligned just right for Leo to FINALLY win what has been alluding him since ’93; the Oscar.  He’s considered incredibly overdue, he’s starring in an Eastwood biopic and the buzz surrounding this film is huge.  I don’t see him losing this at all.  That Oscar may has well have his name etched in it right now.

2)      Ryan Gosling/The Ides of March
WHY?:
The snub last year will account for something, and the fact that he is a charismatic actor starring in a political film needing charisma (and the part is said to be baity) will also carry weight.  Add to that George Clooney, who is practically worshiped now and you have a very predictable second nomination. 

3)      Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
WHY?:
He’s Gary Oldman and he hasn’t even been nominated ONCE.  I know that he may not be considered overdue by the Academy, but the fans are already making fuss about this being ‘his year’ and the baity project matched with a director I have high hopes for means that I think this COULD be the year he finally gets in, and if he does…he may even be a dark horse for the Oscar, considering his age and prestige (but really, DiCaprio isn’t losing).

4)      Michael Fassbender/A Dangerous Method
WHY?:
Michael Fassbender has been making a real splash over the past few years, showing off his glowing charismatic talent in a wide range of roles and has most certainly been accruing much needed respect among his peers.  Now he has a plum role in a prestige film.  I had him higher on the list before I saw the disappointing trailer, but we won’t know anything until the reviews come pouring in, and right now I think his chances are pretty good.

5)      Brad Pitt/Moneyball
WHY?:
Is Brad Pitt this year’s Sandra Bullock?  The film looks incredibly mediocre and it sounds (on paper) to be a total borefest, but he’s Brad Pitt and the writer/director team behind this movie is totally Oscary, so maybe I’ll be wowed.  Besides, Brad is going to be having a great year with lots of media attention thanks to his film releases and, well, his life…so I think he could get in regardless of how bland the film may actually be.

~

6)      Daniel Craig/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
7)      George Clooney/The Descendants
8)      Jean DuJardin/The Artist
9)      Sam Riley/On the Road
10)  Peter Mullan/Tyrannosaur

I really don’t know what to think right now.  I mean, some things are just too predictable to actually happen, and the fact that this early out nearly every Oscar predictor has a DiCaprio/Golsing/Fassbender/Oldman lineup means that something is not going to happen, so I could be so off here. 

But it just feels so right.

I know that George Clooney is nearly everyone’s cup of tea, but The Descendants looks so effing bland.  I can’t fathom it being a huge player, and yet it probably is going to be, so look for Clooney to get nominated yet again for doing the same thing he did the last time he got nominated.  I still think that Craig is going to get more attention than everyone is counting on (I swear that I am the only person talking Oscar and Daniel Craig ATM).  The role is far more reserved than the one that is most likely locked up for a nomination, but it is also a very good one and if the film goes over huge I totally see Craig being swept in with the buzz. 

After that I really don’t know.

I want to say that The Artist will be a really big hit across the board, mainly because it looks like so much fun (I can’t wait to see it), but I have my doubts considering the artistic approach taken to the film (it’s silent).

But you never know…

OTHER UPDATED PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
Best Director
Lead Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

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