Wednesday, April 6, 2011

My Official (April) 2011 Oscar Predictions!

Okay, so this is going to be a work in progress, and it'll (I'm sure) change a lot over the year, since, well, we don't know ANYTHING at this point...but it's always fun to predict this far in advance, since it gives us a chance to see how much we think we know versus how much we actually 'get'.  So, judging from the films slated for release this year, and a few slated for next year that I assume will get pushed to this Oscar season (J. Edgar is already filming, and Eastwood works FAST...and there is no way that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is going to miss the ten year anniversary of 9/11), I've compiled what I think will happen at the Kodak Theater next year.

But I'm probably wrong.

Best Picture:
Carnage
A Dangerous Method
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

I know that this seems almost too prestige and serious, but the films slated look so good it's almost foolish not to predict them.  I just don't know who to drop, and while I assume that an animated film will sneak in every year that the 'ten nominee' field stands, I just can't think of which one could (Cars 2 is not happening).  I may be over-predicting certain films (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) but I just really see them doing very well this year.

The one film I wish I had room for was Contagion.

Best Director:
David Cronenberg/A Dangerous Method
Stephen Daldry/Extremely Closer and Incredibly Loud
Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar
David Fincher/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Terrance Malick/The Tree of Life

I'm not sure what to think of The Invention of Hugo Cabret and it's chances, but a lot of my friends think that Scorsese is going to be nominated.  I'm not so sure.  In fact, the one that I was aching to predict but left off because there just isn't enough room for everyone was George Clooney.  Heck, Soderbergh is also a possibility if Contagion gets a Best Picture nomination.  And what of J.J. Abrams?  If Super 8 is a smash, he could find himself nominated; but then again, they denied Christopher Nolan.

Lead Actor:
Daniel Craig/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender/A Dangerous Method
Ryan Gosling/The Ides of March
Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

I don't know why I seem to be the ONLY person prediction Daniel Craig, but if the film is big (which I assume it will be) it seems like the perfect opportunity to nominate someone who has yet to be embraced by The Academy.  Fassbender, Gosling, Oldman...they seem like surefire runnerups to Leonardo DiCaprio, who is bound to win the thing this year (Eastwood + Real Person + OVERDUE = Oscar).  This lineup almost seems too obvious, but in this category that is usually how things fall.  Sure, Craig is my weakest link, but I'm going to hold onto it (I said it first!).

Lead Actress:
Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams/My Week with Marilyn

I've said all I need to say about this race here, so read up.


Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh/My Week With Marilyn
Nicolas Bro/War Horse
Viggo Mortensen/A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Christoph Waltz/Carnage

I don't know what the hell to think about this category.  I feel pretty good about predicting Bro, since early word is that he has the meatiest supporting role, and I'm sure that the film will net at least one acting nomination.  It's been too long since Branagh has been in the race, and this role seems tailor made for his acting style.  Mortensen will be co-lead, so you know he'll be demoted to this category so as not to take votes from Fassbender.  If Carnage is a big hit, then it'll net some acting nominations, and Waltz seem ideal considering the character and the fact that he'll be co-lead as well.  Plummer has a PLUM role, and he's recently been accepted by The Academy, so I see them wanting to embrace him again.

Not predicting Armie Hammer (too young) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (overkill) seems foolish, but there is no room.


Supporting Actress:
Zoe Caldwell/Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Jessica Chastain/The Tree of Life
Julia Ormond/My Week With Marilyn
Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
Kate Winslet/Carnage

There are just too many options for this category.  Knightley, if nominated, could actually win this thing, so not predicting her was hard, but I fear she could wind up in a category issue (ala Atonement) and get shafted alltogether.  That leaves Watts, who is looked over far too often for me to consider her here.  I wanted to, but this is bound to be the DiCaprio show.  I feel really good about Redgrave, Winslet and Chastain.  I know that Malick doesn't do too well with his actors and nominations (he's GREAT with actors, they just never get nominated) but this role and this actress just seems so 'it' right now.  Ormond is playing a legend, and we all know how the Academy feels about 'legend worship' and Caldwell has a GREAT role, so...her!

Adapted Screenplay:
Carnage
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Skin That I Inhabit

Original Screenplay:
The Beaver
Beginners
Contagion
J. Edgar
Rampart

This is all pure guesswork at what films I think have the best shot with a Best Picture nomination that usually translates into Screenplay noms.  This year seems very rich with Adapted works, so cutting those was hard, and then finding filler for Original works was hard as well.

Who knows.

Editing:
Contagion
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
J. Edgar
Super 8

The like flashy and they like Best Picture frontrunners, so J. Edgar, Super 8 and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (and hopefully Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) seem like easy gets.  I know that predicting a film that I didn't predict for Best Picture seems odd, but what the hell.

Cinematography:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2
The Invention of Hugo Cabret
The Tree of Life
War Horse

The only ones I'm pretty confident in are The Tree of Life and War Horse, which seem like early locks here.  Outside of that, it's anyones guess; although many people tell me that Harry Potter is winning this. 

Sound Editing:
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Super 8
Thor
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Sound Mixing:
Contagion
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life

I don't understand these categories and I don't claim to (in fact, in my personal Fisti Awards I lump them together) so when predicting it seems like I'm grasping at straws.  They like Oscar bait films but they also cream all over action films, so it's a random guess here.

Costume Design:
Immortals
J. Edgar
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
War Horse

They tend to go for showy and pretty, and Burton...so he's not in this year and showy and pretty is what we are left with.  I think this should be an easy win for My Week with Marilyn considering the depth of work they have to do with that film.

Visual Effects:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2
The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
Thor

I'm wondering if Super 8 will wind up being this years Inception. 

Makeup:
Albert Knobs
The Iron Lady
War Horse

The Glenn Close vs. Meryl Streep battle continues! 

Animated Film:
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Winnie the Pooh

Anything but Cars 2!!!

Art Direction:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Invention of Hugo Cabret
J. Edgar
My Week With Marilyn
War Horse

I don't know really...but who does.  Films like The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo could easily be snubbed here, but then again it may capture the right mood for The Academy to embrace it.  I feel most confident in Hugo Cabret and My Week with Marilyn.

Original Score:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
J. Edgar
One Day
War Horse

Like picking names out of a hat really... 

I’m not predicting Original Song and Foreign Film or Documentary and those pesky shorts ATM

6 comments:

  1. Really? The Beaver for Original Screenplay? Really? Please change that. Everything else is rightfully up in the air, but that's just bogus. The film is so blacklisted and the few reviews it's gotten so far have not been kind.

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  2. Oh, and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is ineligible for Animated Feature. Look it up.

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  3. I'll be updating my predix in June me thinks...I wasn't aware of Tintin being ineligible for Animated film...I'll be sure to remove that from my predix. I hadn't heard anything on The Beaver, but the look of the trailer was promising.

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  4. I think that you forgot We Bought a Zoo... I know Cameron Crowe directed Vanilla Sky and Elizabethtown, but he also directed Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. Have a look to this one and have it in consideration in the acting and screenplay categories... it has a lot of potential in my opinion.

    I also agree that The Beaver in screenplay category seems a bit wrong...

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  5. The Beaver script is nothing more than a bunch of mushed-up melodrama. But I'd add The Descendants in a few of the categories. And don't forget about Depp in The Rum Diary..

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  6. Thanks guys, I've heard a lot of predictions thrown the way of 'We Bought a Zoo'...this year just seems so heavy in the adapted department...I'm working on reevaluating my predictions now and I'll have a new batch up by the end of the month. I can't believe I forgot all about The Descendants when compiling these!

    And yes, apparently I need to drop The Beaver.

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