Friday, January 7, 2011

The BAFTA Longlist is Here!!!!

This is probably going to be a work in progress, since I need to to react to these nominations before I post any comments; but here is the list for now...

Best Film
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Right off I'm kind of baffled by the lack of 'Brighton Rock', 'The Ghost Writer' and 'Never Let Me Go' here.  I really thought that those films would score high here, but this list looks awfully conventional for BAFTA.  I mean, you basically have Oscar's top ten here as well, and that just seems wrong to me. 

Predicted Nominees:

Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Director
Danny Boyle/127 Hours *
Tim Burton/Alice In Wonderland
Mike Leigh/Another Year
Darren Aranofsky/Black Swan *
David O. Russell/The Fighter
Niels Arden Oplev/The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Christopher Nolan/Inception *
Lisa Cholodenko/The Kids Are All Right
Tom Hooper/The King’s Speech *
Nigel Cole/Made In Dagenham
Martin Scorsese/Shutter Island
David Fincher/The Social Network *
Ben Affleck/The Town
Lee Unkrich/Toy Story 3
The Coen Brothers/True Grit

Two things kind of blow my mind here; the lack of Roman Polanski and the inclusion of Tim Burton.  I mean, WTF, seriously?  Looking over the Best Picture longlist, one could say that 'The Ghost Writer' isn't up there so Polanski had no chance, but neither was 'Alice in Wonderland' and yet they nominated TIM BURTON!!!  That's just kind of disgusting.  Looks like Oscar's shortlist is here as well (unless Granik surprises) so I'm kind of assuming that that is the lineup we'll get here as well.

Predicted Nominees:

Aranofsky
Fincher
Hooper
Nolan
O. Russell

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Barney’s Version
Brighton Rock
Despicable Me
The Ghost
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Never Let Me Go
Rabbit Hole
Shutter Island
The Social Network *
The Town
Toy Story 3 *
True Grit *
Winter’s Bone *

Now this is a nice collective list, although the it's most likely that the nominees will consist of the major Oscar players.  Still, it's nice to see 'The Ghost Writer' (known in these parts as 'The Ghost'), 'Shutter Island' and 'Never Let Me Go' up for attention.  I kind of suspect that 'True Grit' will miss here, but I could be totally wrong.  It got a 'top five' mention in their first round of voting, but now that the voting field is expanded I can see another film getting a bigger push.  Even '127 Hours' is vulnerable; while I see EASY nominations for 'Winter's Bone', 'Toy Story 3' and 'The Social Network'.

Predicted Nominees:

The Ghost (Writer)
Shutter Island
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone

Original Screenplay
Another Year
Biutiful
Black Swan *
Blue Valentine
The Disappearance Of Alice Creed
The Fighter *
Four Lions
Get Low
Hereafter
I Am Love
Inception *
The Kids Are All Right *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Of Gods and Men

Some nice mentions here, more obscure than I expected (especially after seeing their longlist for Best Picture).  It looks like Oscar's eventual shortlist got the bulk of the votes this last go around, but I suspect a few changes.  I think this will be an easy nomination for Mike Leigh.

Predicted Nominees:

Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Make Up & Hair 
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
I Am Love
Inception
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

I'm just really glad that 'I Am Love' is up here, since that was like the one thing I remember most (outside of the brilliance that is Tilda Swinton).  I don't think it'll get the nomination, but it's nice that it was recognized here.  I don't know how many nominees this branch alots for, but Oscar is only three, so that is what i'm predicting.

Predicted Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech

Editing  
127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception *
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network *
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

This category usually swoons all over the eventual Best Picture nominees, unless you're editing is so amazing but your film is not 'Best Picture' worthy (or at least not the usual criteria).  The obvious shoe-ins are Oscar big boys 'Inception', 'Black Swan' and 'The Social Network', and there is no way 'The King's Speech' won't score here.  It's just that pesky fifth spot.

Predicted Nominees:

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Special Visual Effects       
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan
Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
Hereafter
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception *
Iron Man 2 *
Kick-Ass
The King’s Speech
Monsters
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy *

I want to puke all over the eventual nomination for 'Alice in Wonderland'.  I mean, it's just so...messy.  I guess messy automatically garners you a nomination here.  With Oscar expanding their nominees to five this year, I'm doing the same here; but they may go with three in the end.  Also, what is 'The King's Speech' doing here?

Predicted Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Pt. 1
Inception
Monsters
Tron Legacy

Sound   
127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3 *
True Grit *

Predicted Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit

Costume Design
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
I Am Love
Inception
Kick-Ass
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit *

Predicted Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit

Production Design            
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
I Am Love
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island *
The Social Network
True Grit *

Again with the whole 'more is more' thing and that 'Alice in Wonderland' nomination.  That movie, and the disgusting awards reception it has received, has just irritated me to no end.

Predicted Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island



Cinematography
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
I Am Love
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island *
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit *
Winter’s Bone

Predicted Nominees:

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Original Music
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Biutiful
Brighton Rock
Despicable Me
The Ghost
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
How To Train Your Dragon *
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network *
The Town

Predicted Nominees:

How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network

Animated Film
Chico & Rita
Despicable Me *
How To Train Your Dragon *
Illusionist, The
Toy Story 3 *
Predicted Nominees:

Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Supporting Actress           
Amy Adams (Charlene Fleming) – The Fighter *
Barbara Hershey (Erica Sayers / The Queen) – Black Swan *
Ellen Page (Ariadne) – Inception
Geraldine James (Connie) – Made In Dagenham
Helena Bonham Carter (Queen Elizabeth) – The King’s Speech *
Helena Bonham Carter (Red Queen) – Alice In Wonderland
Lesley Manville (Mary) – Another Year *
Marion Cotillard (Mal) – Inception
Melissa Leo (Alice Ward) – The Fighter
Mila Kunis (Lily / The Black Swan) – Black Swan
Miranda Richardson (Barbara Castle) – Made In Dagenham *
Olivia Williams (Ruth Lang) – The Ghost
Rebecca Hall (Claire Keesey) – The Town
Rosamund Pike (Lisa Hopkins) – Made In Dagenham
Winona Ryder (Beth Macintyre / The Dying Swan) – Black Swan

'Black Swan' is all over the place here (I mean, Winona Ryder???), but it's really cool to see Olivia Williams show up here (but where was Brosnan?!?!).  I hope she makes the eventual shortlist, and the word of mouth about her performance is certainly spreading, so she might.  Oh, and Manville is in supporting now?  Why couldn't this have been more clear all year?  Anyways, she's most likely going to get in, so I assume that 'Black Swan' may get nothing here (although that Kunis nomination seems likely).

Predicted Nominees:

Adams/The Fighter
Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
Manville/Another Year
Richardson/Made in Dagenham
Williams/The Ghost (Writer)


Leading Actor    
Aaron Eckhart (Howie) – Rabbit Hole
Ben Affleck (Doug MacRay) – The Town
Colin Firth (King George VI) – The King’s Speech *
James Franco (Aron Ralston) – 127 Hours *
Javier Bardem (Uxbal) – Biutiful *
Jeff Bridges (Marshal Reuben J Cogburn) – True Grit *
Jesse Eisenberg (Mark Zuckerberg) – The Social Network *
Jim Broadbent (Tom) – Another Year
Johnny Depp (Mad Hatter) – Alice In Wonderland
Leonardo DiCaprio (Cobb) – Inception
Leonardo DiCaprio (Teddy Daniels) – Shutter Island
Mark Wahlberg (Micky Ward) – The Fighter
Paul Giamatti (Barney Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Robert Duvall (Felix Bush) – Get Low
Ryan Gosling (Dean) – Blue Valentine

I think it's kind of gross that Depp is here, but yay for Leo being recognized (and twice at that) and I'm really happy for Gosling too!!!  From what the first round would have you suspect, it looks like Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth and Franco are our top five, but I don't see that completely translating.  I have unwavering faith in Gosling making it in, and I refuse to let go of that notion (he IS getting that Oscar nomination)!

Predicted Nominees:

DiCaprio/Shutter Island
Eisenberg/The Social Network
Firth/The King's Speech
Franco/127 Hours
Gosling/Blue Valentine

Leading Actress
Andrea Riseborough (Rose) – Brighton Rock
Annette Bening (Nic) – The Kids Are All Right *
Carey Mulligan (Kathy) – Never Let Me Go *
Gemma Arterton (Alice) – The Disappearance Of Alice Creed
Gemma Arterton (Tamara Drewe) – Tamara Drewe
Hailee Steinfeld (Mattie Ross) – True Grit
Jennifer Lawrence (Ree) – Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore (Jules) – The Kids Are All Right *
Michelle Williams (Cindy) – Blue Valentine *
Natalie Portman (Nina Sayers / The Swan Queen) – Black Swan *
Nicole Kidman (Becca) – Rabbit Hole
Noomi Rapace (Lisbeth Salander) – The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Rosamund Pike (Miriam Grant-Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Sally Hawkins (Rita O’Grady) – Made In Dagenham
Tilda Swinton (Emma Recchi) – I Am Love

I find it hilarious that last years Oscar winner, who was eligible for the BAFTA this year, is not even on the longlist (that's a major BOO on you Academy for choosing the WRONG girl).  I'm happy to see Gemma Arterton up twice, even though I've seen neither of her films (but she is so going to be a star) and I'm really, REALLY happy that Moore is in the top five for the first vote.  I predicted early on that she would make it in, and this looks promising.  I also see no way that Mulligan, Portman or Bening is missing out...so who for number five?  I'm hoping the first round represents the consensus here because I want Williams nominated!  It doesn't always pan out that way (poor Abbie Cornish), but I'm crossing my fingers for this year.

Predicted Nominees:

Benning/The Kids Are All Right
Moore/The Kids Are All Right
Mulligan/Never Let Me Go
Portman/Black Swan
Williams/Blue Valentine


Supporting Actor               
Andrew Garfield (Eduardo Saverin) – The Social Network *
Andrew Garfield (Tommy) – Never Let Me Go
Ben Kingsley (Dr Cawley) – Shutter Island
Bill Murray (Frank Quinn) – Get Low
Bob Hoskins (Albert) – Made In Dagenham*
Christian Bale (Dicky Eklund) – The Fighter *
Dustin Hoffman (Izzy Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Geoffrey Rush (Lionel Logue) – The King’s Speech *
Guy Pearce (King Edward VIII) – The King’s Speech
Jeremy Renner (James Coughlin) – The Town
Justin Timberlake (Sean Parker) – The Social Network
Mark Ruffalo (Paul) – The Kids Are All Right *
Matt Damon (La Boeuf) – True Grit
Pete Postlethwaite (Fergus ‘Fergie’ Colm) – The Town
Vincent Cassel (Thomas Leroy / The Gentleman) – Black Swan

With the year that Garfield is having, I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up twice on their final ballot.  Lord knows he deserves it!  Outside of that, there are some interesting mentions here.  I think it's safe to assume that Postlethwaite's mention was due to his recent passing, but then again, I'm not sure when ballots were due in so that assumtion could be way off.  They really gobbled up 'Black Swan', as is more evident in the Supporting Actress category.  Still, I think this will be tilted towards Oscar's taste in the end.

Predicted Nominees:

Bale/The Fighter
Garfield/Never Let Me Go
Garfield/The Social Network
Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right
Rush/The King's Speech

2 comments:

  1. Same, I woulda thought BAFTA would be all over Never Let me Go!

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Emma...it is odd to me, and when it comes to The Ghost Writer it is even odder considering the affection it recieved at the BIFA's...it kind of swept there.

    ReplyDelete